The New York Times International - 09.10.2026.pdf

纽约时报

国际版 / 2026年10月9日，星期五

以色列疲惫之中的一场选举

约纳坦·图瓦尔 (Yonatan Touval)

观点

特拉维夫 以色列即将到来的选举，在阿尔戈斯的宫殿屋顶上观察最为恰当。

埃斯库罗斯的《阿伽门农》是《奥瑞斯忒亚》三部曲的第一部，故事便始于那里，一名守卫正等待着宣告特洛伊陷落的烽火。他的第一句话是：“我祈求众神让我摆脱劳苦，结束我这一整年的守望。”他并非在寻求更多消息，而是在请求守望的结束。

在以色列，这种守望似乎永无止境。入睡前的最后一个动作是伸手拿床头柜上的手机查看新闻。如果在深夜醒来，你会再次查看。在早晨喝咖啡之前，一天在同样的地方开始：伊朗发生了什么？是否宣布了预备役征召？在你熟睡时政府做了什么？

在一个处于永久警戒状态的国家，许多人希望即将到来的投票能带来某种缓解。

当然，盯着手机现在已成为人类生存状态的一部分。对于以色列人来说，这种情况尤为严重。在智能手机 era, 之前，广播中每小时新闻简报的提示音能让整辆公交车陷入沉默。工具更新了，但习惯没有。以色列人查看麻烦的方式，就像其他地方的人查看天气一样。但没有人能决定天气。

10月27日，以色列人将举行自2023年10月7日灾难以来的首次全国选举。在那次袭击中，由哈马斯领导的袭击者杀害了1,200人，并绑架了另外251人。这次选举将对那一天的责任认定做出评判，并可能有助于决定总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的政治前途。在这一切之下，隐藏着一个更私密的问题：以色列人能否重新获得那种无需时刻监视政府的平凡特权？

以色列从未完全解除警戒。1948年5月宣布的紧急状态至今依然有效。一个年岁大到足以有孙辈的国家紧急状态，显得有些荒诞。以色列人在战争中工作，围绕导弹威胁规划假期，并在离开避难所后继续晚餐。生活在继续，但警觉从未关闭。

两个多世纪前，法裔瑞士政治思想家本雅明·康斯坦认为，代议制政府允许公民将治理工作委托给他人，同时保留监督治理者的职责。民主制度最安静的承诺之一就是，政治不需要

图瓦尔，第10页

《纽约时报》发表来自广泛视角的观点，旨在促进关于重大问题的建设性辩论。

来源：战争研究所和美国企业研究所关键威胁项目（截至10月4日）。

乔什·霍尔德 / 纽约时报

乌克兰挫败俄罗斯攻势

反攻阻碍莫斯科的努力，基辅在顿巴斯夺回土地

乌克兰军队（上图）向乌克兰东部利曼方向的一个俄罗斯目标开火。莫斯科方面表示，夺取顿巴斯地区是必然的。 TYLER HICKS / THE NEW YORK TIMES

作者：MARC SANTORA 和 JOSH HOLDER

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京多次表示，乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区的陷落是必然的，且速度将比基辅预想的更快。

但战场上的近期趋势却呈现出不同的景象。

在顿巴斯北部，乌克兰进行了为期数月的反攻，挫败了俄罗斯试图包围该地区剩余由乌克兰控制城市的努力。西方分析人士表示，在基辅称之为“维瓦尔第行动”的战役期间，俄罗斯失去了数十平方英里的领土。

在顿巴斯南部，俄罗斯继续发起猛烈攻击以突破乌克兰防线。但基辅已在那里重新组织防御，到目前为止，成功阻止了俄罗斯军队在试图包围顿巴斯主要城市的行动中进一步推进。

从更广泛的层面来看，2026年俄罗斯在乌克兰全境的进展较去年本就极其缓慢的步伐有了显著放缓。总部位于芬兰的研究公司 Black Bird Group 表示，9月份是俄罗斯自2023年6月以来在乌克兰境内净领土收益最糟糕的一个月。

虽然追踪战场的西方研究人员报告的数据各异，但他们普遍认为，俄罗斯今年获得的土地仅略多于其失去的土地。

这与俄罗斯国防部的说法形成鲜明对比。俄国防部在9月19日表示，俄罗斯已占领超过2,000平方英里（约5,200平方公里）的土地。甚至连俄罗斯的极端民族主义军事博主也提出了异议，对俄罗斯试图包围顿巴斯所谓“堡垒城市”的行动正在失败表示担忧。

乌克兰取得进展之际，双方都在试图寻找一种方法，以在因无人机无处不在而陷入大规模僵局的战场上恢复机动性。

华盛顿战争研究所的高级分析师乔治·巴罗斯（George Barros）表示，维瓦尔第行动表明，只要军队奠定了必要的基础，即使在密集的无人机监视下，机械化推进仍然是可能的。尽管如此，乌克兰花费了数月的准备时间才夺回失地中极小的一部分。

普京曾表示，无论是通过武力还是通过乌克兰的让步，俄罗斯完全控制顿巴斯是结束战争的不可谈判条件。乌克兰拒绝了特朗普政府提出的建议，即移交俄罗斯在战场上未能夺取的土地。

由于在顿巴斯的目标尚未实现，莫斯科升级了针对乌克兰城市的空战，利用其在导弹和无人机方面的优势轰炸首都基辅。乌克兰官员表示，周三夜间对多个城市的袭击造成至少20人死亡。他们称俄罗斯的轰炸是一场旨在摧毁该国战斗意志的恐怖主义行动。

“维瓦尔第行动”得名于乌克兰将其战役分为四个“季节”或阶段，并以此致敬这位作曲家最著名的作品。

今年，随着俄罗斯军队在斯洛维扬斯克（Sloviansk）和克拉马托尔斯克（Kramatorsk）等“堡垒带”城市以东地区推进，并从南部推向科斯蒂安廷诺夫卡（Kostiantynivka），乌克兰在北部准备了一场反攻。

根据对乌克兰指挥官的采访，在发起进攻行动之前，乌克兰军队必须首先稳定其防御线，阻止俄罗斯在顿巴斯北部的缓慢推进。

随后，指挥官们表示，乌克兰开始在战场上创造条件，以便其部队能够推进。

基辅的军队瞄准了俄罗斯的后勤系统，扩大了中程打击行动，旨在摧毁向俄军及物资输送燃料的道路和铁路。作为该行动的一部分，乌克兰摧毁了一条输油管道，切断了俄罗斯所需的燃料供应。乌克兰，第4页

也门为何未能阻止胡塞武装在红海的闪击战

沙特阿拉伯，利雅得

在混乱的一夜之间，伊朗支持的民兵组织击溃了沙特支持的部队

作者：VIVIAN NEREIM, SAEED AL-BATATI 和 SHUAIB ALMOSAWA

在受伊朗支持的胡塞武装民兵沿也门红海海岸线展开部署、导致其敌军陷入疯狂溃败的前几周，一名也门政府指挥官曾请求援助。

对于该指挥官塔雷克·萨利赫（Tareq Saleh）中将而言，胡塞武装企图夺取其领土以抵达曼德海峡（Bab al-Mandab Strait）已是显而易见，而该海峡是全球最重要的水道之一。

据三名也门官员透露，他曾试图警告其在沙特阿拉伯和美国的强大盟友。全球约 10 percent 的贸易经过该海峡。在美国与以色列同伊朗的战争背景下，两国都有兴趣防止一个与伊朗有关联的民兵组织在海峡旁占据有利位置。

然而，上个月——当胡塞武装确实做到了这一点时——没有人能够，或者愿意阻止他们。

该民兵组织在混乱与恐慌的一夜之间取得了对曼德海峡的惊人胜利，这引发了一系列连锁反应，使也门陷入了一场具有全球影响的战争。

本周，在美军提供情报和目标引导协助下，沙特阿拉伯开始发起轰炸行动，以帮助也门政府夺回失去的领土。周二，政府盟军声称取得了重大进展，已将控制海峡的胡塞武装战士围困。

目前尚不清楚胡塞武装的推进是否能维持，或者如果能维持，他们将在哪里停止。沙特政府已承诺帮助也门政府“消灭”胡塞武装。十年前，当他们上一次承担这一使命时，局面演变成了一场血腥的泥潭。

这是关于重新点燃也门战争的这场战斗的内部故事，以及它为下一阶段战斗提供的沉痛教训。9月10日的胡塞武装胜利表明，一支乌合之众的民兵如何转型为一支拥有先进技术的强大力量。这对也门政府及其沙特资助者来说是一次重大挫败。

本文基于对 15 多个参与战斗或获知情况的人员的采访，包括士兵、也门军官、也门国际认可政府的官员、美国官员以及胡塞武装官员。他们几乎全部要求匿名，要么是因为担心遭到胡塞武装或沙特阿拉伯的报复，要么是因为未获授权讨论相关情况。他们的叙述清楚地表明，胡塞武装，第 4 页

在印度，食品安全检查员是摇滚明星

印度，孟买

摄影：ZISHAAN A LATIF 为《纽约时报》拍摄 “我怕你，”一名餐厅老板对图卡拉姆·蒙德（Tukaram Mundhe）说道，他是印度马哈拉施特拉邦最高级别的食品和药物监管官员。上图为他在一次突击检查期间的团队成员。

突击检查视频让图卡拉姆·蒙德成为意外的名人

作者：SUHASINI RAJ 和 JONATHAN WOLFE

一场清晨的突击检查让孟买一家热门餐厅的员工措手不及。

食品安全官员冲进厨房，仔细检查坦都里烤炉以及一批批黄油的过期日期。他们很快发现了许多问题。一名员工坐在地板上切姜；另一名员工在用擀面杖准备恰巴提面饼，身上穿着短裤。

“你为什么不穿长裤？”一名官员问道。但她以及观察此次突击检查的《纽约时报》记者很快被一群从油桶旁窜过的蟑螂吸引了注意力。

蒙德先生表示，他对规则的严格遵守为他带来了死亡威胁。

上个月在奥林匹亚咖啡馆（Olympia Coffee House）进行的检查发现了数十项健康与安全违规行为，并导致这家拥有百年历史的机构被勒令关闭。这是由该州新任最高食品和药物官员图卡拉姆·蒙德（Tukaram Mundhe）主导的最新一次高调行动，他发起的零容忍运动针对印度，第2页

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期号 No. 44,653

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上方从左至右：伊娃·玛丽·圣（Eva Marie Saint）与加里·格兰特在1959年阿尔弗雷德·希区柯克的《北西北》中；与莉莲·吉什在1953年电视播出的《前往丰饶之地》中；以及与本·哈巴德在2006年的《超人归来》中，当时她饰演超人的母亲。 DAVID JAMES / 华纳兄弟影业

她凭借《码头风云》获得奥斯卡奖

圣与马龙·白兰度在《码头风云》（1954年）中。两人均获得了奥斯卡奖，该片还获得了最佳影片奖。 哥伦比亚电影公司

伊娃·玛丽·圣 1924-2026

作者：阿尔金·哈梅茨

伊娃·玛丽·圣于周二在洛杉矶家中去世，享年102岁。她在1955年凭借电影处女作《码头风云》中饰演马龙·白兰度饰演的码头工人那害羞的情人，以扣人心弦的表演赢得了奥斯卡奖；随后，她在希区柯克的浪漫惊悚片《北北西来》中饰演一名时尚的诱惑者，表现同样令人信服。

其家族代表杰夫·桑德森确认了她的死讯。

圣女士金发且美貌精致——小时候她曾在学校演出中扮演天使。在她拍摄第一部电影之前，她已经从事演员工作八年了。她在电视直播剧中磨练演技——她说，由于直播剧使用三台摄像机且现场始终嘈杂，这迫使她学会了如何集中注意力。

在《码头风云》这部拥有史上最顶尖演员和工作人员阵容之一的电影中，她的配角表演足以让她在电影史上占据一席之地；该片至今仍位列美国电影学院（AFI）评选的美国最伟大电影名单前列。该片获得了奥斯卡最佳影片奖和最佳导演奖（授予埃利亚·卡赞），而白兰度则凭借饰演一名在腐败工会中充当打手的前拳击手的痛苦表演，赢得了最佳男演员奖。

尽管白兰度拥有最令人难忘的台词（“我本可以成为一名竞争者”），但获得奥斯卡最佳剧本奖的巴德·舒尔伯格表示，圣女士承担的任务风险最高——她饰演的是一名受教会教育的年轻女性伊迪，她对白兰度饰演的特里·马洛伊充满热情。伊迪发现特里在她的哥哥（因触怒工会敲诈者而死）的死亡中扮演了某种角色，她在唤醒马洛伊的良知方面起到了关键作用。

卡赞表示，他从数百名女演员中选中圣女士，是因为她能够传达出“教养良好的天主教女孩所具有的纯真与信仰”，但他也指出，她还具备一种爆发性的欲望表达能力，以及能够跟上即兴表演大师白兰度节奏的能力。

在好莱坞的RKO潘塔格斯剧院领取奥斯卡奖时，她正怀有第一个孩子九个月，她告诉观众：“我太激动了，孩子可能就在这里出生。”她的儿子在两天后出生。

尽管星光熠熠的成名之路在招手，但圣女士决定在两个孩子成长期间专注于家庭，每年仅拍一部电影。她后来回忆说，自己拒绝了一份三部电影的合约，她的经纪人曾承诺这份合约会让她成为一名“超级巨星”。在1996年接受好莱坞采访者大卫·范特尔和汤姆·约翰逊采访时，她反思道，她更倾向于“成为一名拥有和谐家庭生活的职业演员”。

尽管如此，圣女士的职业生涯依然丰硕且备受赞誉。与她在《码头风云》中的表现几乎同样受好评的，是她在《北北西来》（1959年）中饰演的那个诱人的神秘女子，与格兰特相对戏，该片同样入选了美国电影学院的名单。

在片中，格兰特饰演的麦迪逊大道高管被诬陷犯下一起备受关注的谋杀案而被迫逃亡，他发现自己与圣女士同坐在火车餐厅车厢内。出人意料且令他欣喜的是，她成了性挑逗的主动方。“这将是一个漫长的夜晚，”她告诉他，“而且我不怎么喜欢我开始读的那本书。你知道我的意思吧？”

在晚年，她说在她整个职业生涯中，最轻松的工作之一就是拍摄他们接吻戏时所需的多次重拍。

圣女士的大多数表演都具有强烈的戏剧冲突。在《一帽雨》（A Hatful of Rain，1957）中，她饰演一名毒瘾患者（唐·默里 饰）的坚定妻子；在《雨树县》（Raintree County，1957）中，她饰演一名青梅竹马的女子，而蒙哥马利·克利夫则被伊丽莎白·泰勒夺走；在《出埃及记》（Exodus，1960）中，她饰演一名在建立以色列国斗争期间与一名犹太战士（保罗·纽曼 饰）相爱的美国寡妇护士；在《众人都跌落》（All Fall Down，1962）中，她则饰演一名被年轻流浪汉（沃伦·比蒂 饰）诱骗上床并背叛的年长女性。

不过，只要有机会，圣女士就能证明自己是一名出色的喜剧演员。在《某种感觉》（That Certain Feeling，1956）中，她饰演一名依然深爱前夫（鲍勃·霍普 饰）的秘书；在《俄罗斯人来了，俄罗斯人来了》（The Russians Are Coming, the Russians Are Coming，1966）中，她饰演卡尔·赖纳的妻子。这部冷战讽刺剧讲述了一个新英格兰小镇误以为自己正遭到苏联入侵的故事。

20世纪70年代，随着电影工作日益稀少，一向冷静且务实的圣女士愉快且成功地回归了电视荧屏。她主演了电视电影；在80年代后期的ABC喜剧正剧《月光侦探》（Moonlighting）中饰演西比尔·谢泼德的母亲；并在1990年凭借在NBC版多米尼克·邓关于上流社会的辛辣小说《像我们这样的人》（People Like Us）中饰演的一名刻薄的遗孀而获得艾美奖。

伊娃·玛丽·圣是两个女儿中的小女儿，1924年7月4日出生于新泽西州东奥兰治，在纽约州德尔玛长大。

她的父亲约翰·默尔·圣是轮胎制造商B.F. Goodrich的高管。她的母亲伊娃·玛丽（赖斯）·圣曾是一名教师。

她的母亲在1954年告诉《时尚》（Cosmopolitan）杂志，她小时候很安静，甚至显得严肃；她认为女儿继承了父亲（一名贵格会信徒）的“宁静”。

成为一名演员几乎是偶然。圣女士跟随姐姐阿德莱德进入俄亥俄州的鲍灵格林州立大学，几乎立即就被选为大学戏剧的主角。由于极具吸引力，她还被同学们选为“毛衣女王”和“五月女王”。

她于1946年毕业，获得演讲学学士学位。（该大学在2012年以她的名字命名了一座剧院。）纽约和电视成为了她的下一步。她的早期角色包括在一家网球鞋广告中饰演一名会唱歌的啦啦队长，更值得注意的是，她在1949年出演了《第一演播室》（Studio One）中由林格·拉德纳和乔治·S·考夫曼创作的剧作《六月月亮》（June Moon），对手戏演员是另一位年轻的希望之星杰克·莱蒙。

在黄金时段电视版广播肥皂剧《一个人的家庭》（One Man's Family）中饰演叛逆女儿克劳迪娅两年之久，为她带来了丰厚的收入，但却让她感到不满。同样感到不满的导演志向者杰弗里·海登邀请她共进午餐；两人于1951年结婚。

在与海登先生（一名资深电视导演）结婚进入第四个十年时，圣女士告诉《洛杉矶时报》：“我真的不会每天早上醒来就说，‘哎呀，这不是很反常吗？43年后我还在和同一个男人睡觉。’但我确实会说，婚姻需要经营，它不会自然而然地发生。”

海登先生于2016年去世，享年90岁。他的遗属包括他们的两个孩子达雷尔和劳雷特、四个孙辈以及两个曾孙辈。

在评论界的如潮好评中，圣女士与莉莉安·吉什共同主演了霍顿·富特1953年的电视剧《前往丰收之行》（The Trip to Bountiful），她在剧中饰演一名在长途巴士旅程中与年长女性结交的年轻女子。当《前往丰收之行》在1953年晚些时候搬上百老汇时，在商业上遭遇了失败，但在其39场演出中的一场，卡赞先生和舒尔伯格先生就在观众席中。

她在《西北方向》中饰演的神秘女子的表现，几乎与她在《码头风云》中的作品一样广受赞誉。

富特先生表示，她“传递内在纯洁的能力”使她成为《丰收之旅》中该角色的不二人选；卡赞先生和舒尔伯格先生也一致认为，正是这种特质使她成为《码头风云》的理想之选。

圣女士出演的其他电影还包括《36小时》（1964），这是一部由詹姆斯·加纳共同主演的第二次世界大战剧；以及《沙岸鸟》（1965），在片中她将心爱的男人（由理查德·伯顿饰演，其角色是她的丈夫，一名圣公会牧师）输给了一位思想自由的艺术家（由泰勒女士饰演）。在《潜行之月》（1968）中，她饰演一名被陆军侦察兵（格里高利·派克 饰）救出的囚犯，随后在西部边境被她那叛逆的阿帕契绑架者跟踪。

直到晚年，圣女士依然是一名在职演员。她在电影《超人归来》（2006）中饰演超人的养母玛莎·肯特，并在《因为温迪克西》（2005）中饰演一名老处女图书管理员，与一名10岁女孩和一只狗共同担纲核心角色。她最后一次电影亮相是在2014年的奇幻片《冬天的故事》中，该片改编自马克·赫尔普林的小说。

在2011年接受《名利场》采访时，被问及是否看过自己的电影，圣女士回答道：“有时我会看。然后我会想，天哪，那是你演的？干得漂亮！”

亚当·伯恩斯坦参与了报道。

在印度，一名食品安全检查员成了名人

奥林匹亚（Olympia）的突击检查，并补充道：“保障公众健康是我的职责。”

印度，见第 1 页

摄影：ZISHAAN A LATIF 为《纽约时报》拍摄

对违规厨房和粗心制造商的打击激发了印度人的想象力。

似乎没有一家企业能逃过蒙德（Mundhe）先生的关注。他的工作人员检查了诸如奥林匹亚等知名场所——今年夏天，马特·达蒙（Matt Damon）和汤姆·霍兰德（Tom Holland）在宣传电影《奥德赛》（The Odyssey）期间曾在这里喝茶——以及街头摊贩、政府食堂、高端餐厅和像麦当劳这样的连锁店。

当天晚些时候，在这座 sprawling 沿海城市的另一端，一支检查小组在未事先通知的情况下抵达了一家食品香精和烘焙添加剂工厂。他们发现了过期一年之久的芒果泥，以及标签错误的草莓淋面凝胶瓶。该企业同样被要求暂停运营。

他的办公室将突击检查的视频分享给了新闻媒体，这让这位生活简朴、现年 51 岁的职业官僚蒙德先生成了一名出人意料的名人。

宝莱坞演员们称赞他。心惊胆战的餐厅经营者们鱼贯进入他的办公室，恳求并讨好。批评者称他过于激进，而粉丝则将他描述为现代圣人，食客们在手机上向服务员展示他的照片以示警告。

毫无争议的是，作为印度人口第二大州马哈拉施特拉邦食品药品监督管理局局长的蒙德先生，引发了一场关于食品标准和卫生的全国性讨论。

“这就是我想要的——让人们意识到食品安全，”蒙德先生在一次采访中说道，这次采访是在

一种激进的方法

印度新闻媒体经常报道令人作呕的故事：学生在学校早餐中发现蜥蜴后被送往医院；一家人因度假村的霉变生日蛋糕而生病；五星级酒店的餐厅桌子上出现蟑螂。

“印度食品安全和卫生的整体情况一直相当糟糕，”帕万·阿加瓦尔（Pawan Agarwal）表示，他曾任印度食品安全与标准局（Food Safety and Standards Authority of India）负责人，该机构相当于美国的食品药品监督管理局（FDA）。

印度的法规和检测设施与许多工业化国家相当，而这些国家在某种程度上都存在不卫生的食品场所。但阿加瓦尔先生表示，在印度，执法力度薄弱，且经常受到腐败的破坏。他说，违规后果可能很轻微，且案件诉讼可能耗时数年，导致违规者能够长期继续经营。

今年 5 月就职的蒙德先生采取了更激进的手段，迅速关闭不合规企业，直到他们解决问题为止。

上个月一名记者访问时，在蒙德先生位于孟买商业区的办公室里，他戴着无框眼镜，面无表情地看着店主们鱼贯而入，恳求宽恕。

一家被勒令关闭的中餐厅老板展示了手机照片，照片中是其光洁的厨房和新的制冷系统。他局促不安地谈到了他的员工，称他们现在失业了。

“先生，我怕您，”他最后说道。

“你应该害怕法律，而不是我，”蒙德先生回答道。

农村出身与道德准则 蒙德先生在马哈拉施特拉邦的农村长大，他家农场背负的债务如此沉重，以至于他说直到青少年时期他都没有鞋穿。

他将自己的道德观归功于父亲。他的父亲是一名种植小米和蔬菜的农民，蒙德先生说，父亲曾将自家地里砍掉的一棵树的收益与兄弟分享，仅仅是因为那棵树曾为兄弟的土地遮荫。

蒙德先生的哥哥阿肖克（Ashok）是村里第一个上大学的人，他资助了蒙德先生的学业。在通过印度竞争激烈的公务员考试后，蒙德先生从事过多种工作，包括检查掺假燃料以及打击当地犯罪集团。

他在21年间被调离了25个岗位——他将此归因于自己对规则的严格遵守，而这项工作有时曾为他招来死亡威胁。

“支撑我走下去的是一个简单的哲学，也就是其中的伦理部分：如果我不能完成这项工作，那么谁能？”他说道。

上方，在孟买经营小吃摊的斯瓦米·高达（Swamy Gowda）已开始使用食品级蜡纸而非报纸来包装食物。左侧，一家食品添加剂工厂在上个月的一次检查后被要求暂停运营。

蒙德先生表示，他每天只吃一顿饭，并且避免食用加工食品。担任专员期间，他禁止学校提供高糖、高钠、高盐和高脂肪的食品。他还针对企业展开行动，在一家亚马逊仓库中发现了过期商品，并指责百事公司（PepsiCo）和红牛（Red Bull）将产品标注为“能量饮料”以误导消费者，理由是该术语并没有经过批准的定义。

蒙德先生的办公室表示，在就职的前三个月里，他们经常根据举报采取行动，检查了大约12,000处地点，发现只有一半完全合规。

其他势力对他采取的方法感到不满。一些印度教右翼人士指责他不公平地针对宗教节日期间的摊贩。7月，孟买高等法院质疑蒙德先生是否在不成比例地打击私营企业。

不久之后，他的办公室突击检查了法院的食堂，并关闭了两家没有有效执照的食堂。次月，法院指责他的办公室“做得过火”，并命令其向一家甜品店支付大约5,100美元，因为该店的执照被暂停的时间超过了法官认为必要的期限。蒙德先生表示他已对该决定提出上诉。

对于他的粉丝来说（其中一些人会专门到他的办公室见面），他似乎做什么都是对的。

最近的一个晚上，一群年轻的大学教授来告诉他，他们正在拍摄一部关于他工作的纪录片。一名有志于成为公务员的女性表示，她旅途奔波超过500英里（800公里）。

一群来自孟买市外的奶农感谢他打击劣质牛奶，称他们的利润有所增加。

在他办公室附近的街道上，食品摊贩斯瓦米·高达在解释为什么开始用食品级蜡纸包装他的瓦达帕夫（vada pav，孟买最受欢迎的街头小吃，一种夹在黄油面包卷中的土豆饼）时，提到了蒙德先生。他以前一直使用价格便宜得多的报纸，但最近得知报纸可能会将有毒油墨渗入食物中。

“我们需要遵循蒙德先生的说法，”他补充道，“公众健康第一。”

学校现状揭示学生抗议原因

巴黎

学生们在一次要求改善学习条件的抗议活动中，封锁了巴黎郊区破旧的保罗·埃吕阿尔学校（Paul Éluard school）的入口。左图为市长巴利·巴加约科（Bally Bagayoko）在示威活动中站在学生和警察之间。 ABDUL SABOOR / 路透社

KENZO TRIBOUILLARD / 法新社 — 盖蒂图片社

巴黎郊区表达的愤怒在全法国的集会中产生共鸣

作者：SÉGOLÈNE LE STRADIC

学生和教师表示，当巴黎北郊一个工人阶级社区的保罗·埃吕阿尔高中学生在开学第一天抵达学校时，他们发现教室里缺少椅子、桌子，且电力供应不稳定。他们说，由于学校正在装修，学生们被安置在隔热效果差、厕所肮脏且经常停电的预制建筑中上课。

随后出现了人员短缺问题。两名数学教授被调往另一所学校，导致超过一周的时间里没有人能接手他们的课程。他们表示，学校缺席的心理学家和职业顾问都没有人接替，且只有一名兼职护士为大约 2,000 名学生提供校内医疗护理。

“这是一种完全混乱的迎接学生的方式，”自 2020 年起在保罗·埃吕阿尔学校任教的数学老师伊雷娜·凯莱托（Irène Cailleteau）说道。“这是一个极其艰难的开学方式。”

这些挫败感正是自 9 月下旬以来引发学生抗议浪潮的原因，抗议活动不仅发生在作为动荡源头之一的保罗·埃吕阿尔学校，还发生在法国数百所高中。

数千名学生在像凯莱托女士这样的教师的支持下，封锁了学校，以抗议普遍的教师短缺、破旧的学校基础设施以及繁重的课表，并要求彻底改革国家高等教育项目的名额分配制度。

抗议者定于周四第二次在全法国走上街头，这将是对学生抗议运动能否扩大为全国性不满浪潮的一次考验。

这场运动在周二得到了由工会领导的 40 多个法国城市集会的支持，它使国家产生了分歧并激化了政治紧张局势，尤其是在许多示威活动演变为暴力冲突之后。一些抗议者发射了迫击炮式的烟花，焚烧公共建筑并洗劫商店，而人权组织和法律专家则指责警方使用了过度武力。据法国官员称，在短短两周多时间里，已有 6,500 多人被捕，750 多名警察以及大约 300 名学生和教职员工受伤。

在保罗·埃吕阿尔学校的示威活动中，影像显示抗议者大多表现平和，但部分参与者推倒了学校部分围栏并在校外街道纵火，干扰了秩序。这导致当局在 9 月下旬下令关闭学校，禁止在校门前抗议，并逮捕了数名学生。

该校校长和教育部当地分支机构拒绝就本文所述情况发表评论。大区主席瓦莱丽·佩克雷斯（Valérie Pécresse）的办公室表示，其政府最近投资了约 5000万美元 用于改善该校，该校是塞纳-圣但尼（Seine-St.-Denis）郊区 50 多所新装修学校之一。

对于保罗·埃吕。

“这是一种完全混乱的迎接学生的方式。这是一个极其艰难的开学之年。”

……对于保罗·艾吕雅（Paul Éluard）学校的学生和教师来说，这项投资不足以扭转该校以及整个学区数十年来被忽视的局面。

塞纳-圣但尼（Seine-St.-Denis）是一个移民群体庞大的广阔地区，其失业率和贫困率远高于全国平均水平。这种不平等在学区的教育系统中得到了体现：根据一家涵盖 1,000 多所法国学校的大型工会调查，塞纳-圣但尼及其周边地区 61% 的初中和高中在开学时缺少教师。这比全国平均水平高出 8 个百分点。

“这是一个全国性的问题，但在郊区的情况糟糕三倍，”保罗·艾吕雅学校的高年级学生、学生会成员比莱尔·纳吉西（Bilel Narjissi）说道。

保罗·艾吕雅学校最近的学生和教师表示，某些科目的课程在整个学年都没有教授，其中包括哲学课，这严重影响了学生们准备毕业考试的情况。

法国教育部长爱德华·热弗雷（Édouard Geffray）周二表示，过去一年教学岗位的空缺数量已减少了一半以上。

但学生们表示，他们尚未感受到实质性的变化。

保罗·艾吕雅学校 16 岁的学生扎卡里亚·布哈达（Zakarya Boukhadda）在本周的一次集会上表示，学校缺乏足够的特教教师，尤其是“针对像我这样患有神经多样性状况或自闭症的学生”。

保罗·艾吕雅学校成立于 1965 年，是以一名法国作家的名字命名的，他的诗作《自由》（Liberté）在第二次世界大战期间成为广为传诵的自由颂歌。

随着时间的推移，以他命名的这所学校成了衰败的代名词。2023 年 5 月，教职员工创建了一个社交媒体账号，将这所高中比作“泰坦尼克号”。照片和视频显示，墙壁开裂崩塌，天花板漏水或坍塌，地板被淹。

在对前学生和现任学生的采访中，他们也描述了这些状况，并回忆起老鼠在走廊里窜来窜去。

2024 年底，地区官员报告称发现学校部分区域处于失修状态，并警告称防火门被楔住无法开启，紧急出口被堵塞，且有被蓄意破坏的迹象。

佩克雷斯（Pécresse）女士的办公室表示，地区政府已尝试解决学校的结构性问题，包括对建筑进行防水处理、增加防火门并提供更多安保措施，以及投资 5,000 万美元（约 4,500 万欧元），用于“整个场地的全面改造”。

但对于学生及其支持者来说，这些补充措施太少且太迟，而且在装修期间，学生们被困在不合格的临时建筑中。

极左翼当地市长巴利·巴加约科（Bally Bagayoko）在周日的集会上告诉记者，地区议会的反应是“轻蔑的”。

“他们说，‘我们给你们 4,500 万’，”经常参加声援学生游行的巴加约科先生说，“这意味着，‘对我们给你们的东西感到满足吧，庆幸我们竟然给了你们东西’，”他补充道。

53 岁的巴加约科先生在该地区长大，他回忆起自己学生时代在隔热效果极差的建筑中学习的情景。

佩克雷斯女士将巴加约科先生斥为煽动者，并在社交媒体上承诺将向他发送“保罗·艾吕雅高中更换大门的 100,000 欧元账单”。

对于保罗·艾吕雅学校的一些人来说，学校的状况加深了这样一种认知：国家领导人并不关心这个地区或其贫困居民，其中许多人的家庭来自法国在非洲的前殖民地。

“他们根本不在乎我们，”19 岁的佐拉·阿德拉奇（Zorah Adrachi）说道。她今年夏天从保罗·艾吕雅学校毕业，希望学习心理学或接受教师培训。

尽管通过了高中毕业考试（这一成绩通常能保证进入大学），但阿德拉奇女士仍是数千名尚未获得高等教育项目录取名额的高中毕业生之一，这让她陷入了进退两难的境地。

学生会成员纳吉西先生在羊毛大衣的衣领上佩戴着法国三色旗，他表示不会放弃争取更好学习条件的斗争。

“也许我们的父母不敢追求管理职业或负责任的职位，”他说。

“但明天我们将成为议会议员，我们将成为市长，我们将继续前行，绝不放弃，”纳吉西先生补充道。

英国保守党寻求重启

OLI SCARFF / AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES 周日，保守党党魁凯米·巴德诺克（Kemi Badenoch）在英格兰伯明翰。她一直试图将自己的政党与右翼民粹主义的改革英国党（Reform UK）区分开来。

英格兰，伯明翰

其领导人凯米·巴德诺克必须应对国家政治右翼的分歧

作者：STEPHEN CASTLE

凯米·巴德诺克（Kemi Badenoch）说话直率、自信，且个人支持率不断上升。自2024年保守党在惨败的大选后由她接任领导职务以来，她已牢牢掌控了英国的主要反对党——保守党。

但周三在英格兰伯明翰举行的党年度会议上，发表主旨演讲的巴德诺克女士面临着两线作战。她是英国主要政党中首位黑人领导人。

民调显示，尽管巴德诺克个人的支持率有所提高，但保守党在选民中的受欢迎程度甚至低于2024.年遭遇灾难性失败时的水平。民调结果表明，他们不仅落后于执政的工党——该党在近期就任的领导人、首相安迪·伯纳姆（Andy Burnham）的带领下焕发活力——而且还落后于由奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）领导的右翼民粹主义改革英国党（Reform UK）。

法拉奇先生在过去几个月里处境艰难，关于他及其政党财务状况的质疑接踵而至，但改革英国党在民调中的支持率仍维持在22%左右，比保守党高出约5个百分点。

分析人士表示，英国政治右翼的分裂可能会在下次大选中对工党有利。下次大选必须在2029年之前举行，但可能会提前到来。伦敦玛丽女王大学政治学教授蒂姆·贝尔（Tim Bale）表示：“法拉奇尚未承认自己无法彻底击败保守党，或许他仍然抱有希望。而巴德诺克则没有表现出想与改革英国党达成协议的迹象，至少在选举之前是这样。”

在演讲中，巴德诺克女士明确拒绝了与改革英国党结盟的想法，并指出了警方对该党财务状况的调查。她说：“对于那些主张‘统一右翼’的人，我们不会与那个党统一。”

巴德诺克女士还批评了那些“争论我的混血孩子是否是英国人”的人。她说，在观看英格兰足球队比赛时，她不应该向儿子解释“有些人认为我们的黑人球员不是英国人”。

苏埃拉·布拉弗曼（Suella Braverman）是一名改革英国党的议员，此前曾是保守党成员。她的父母从毛里求斯和肯尼亚移民到英格兰，她出生于此。布拉弗曼最近表示，她不认为自己是英国人，声称“英国人”是一种“族群”而非国籍。她的言论引发了激烈的争论。

虽然巴德诺克女士与改革英国党划清了一些界限，但她也宣布了几项显然旨在吸引改革英国党选民的政策，包括在移民问题上采取强硬立场，并承诺削减福利和放宽气候变化目标。在演讲中，她通过承诺降低税收和减少政府干预，将保守党与工党进行了对比。她承诺要为“这个国家的灵魂而战”，并主张“将我们没有的钱花在我们负担不起的事情上并不是善良，而是鲁莽”。

她还概述了降低遗产税的计划，尽管只有不到5%的人口缴纳遗产税，但该税种极不受欢迎。

在伯明翰，尽管保守党在被赶下台（执政14年后）的选举之后未能提高支持率，但许多党内成员的情绪依然高昂。

该党展示了一幅著名的拜约挂毯（Bayeux Tapestry）的仿制品，原件目前在伦敦展出。这幅“伯明翰挂毯”包含了对对手的讽刺图像，其中法拉奇先生被描绘成一个在婴儿车里大哭大闹、乱扔玩具的婴儿，这是指他对他的一项未披露的500万英镑（$6.600 万）礼金被议会调查而感到愤怒。

在仿制挂毯中，巴德诺克女士被描绘成一位凯旋的领导人。她还提交了一份关于其政治原则的30,000字文件，并告诉《伦敦时报》：“我将其称之为‘凯米化学’（Kemistry）。”

许多支持者希望法拉奇先生

法拉奇的麻烦将持续下去，且伯纳姆先生的人气在经济挑战中有所下降，从而使保守党成为显而易见的替代选择。然而，一些活动人士认为，该党应密切关注改革英国党（Reform U.K.）以及“恢复英国”（Restore Britain）支持者之间的在线辩论——后者是由一名改革英国党叛逃者领导的极右翼政党。

“保守党需要探索网络上的对话，并将其引导至对自身有利的积极方向，”露西·哈里斯（Lucy Harris）表示。她是一名保守党成员，曾代表法拉奇的脱欧党（改革英国党的前身）在欧洲议会任职。

通过试图从改革英国党手中夺回部分选民，巴登诺女士已将她的政党向右翼转移。这极有可能使其对更倾向于中间路线的保守党选民失去吸引力，其中一些人已经转而支持自由民主党。

改革英国党在某一方面帮了巴登诺女士，因为它为她之前的领导权竞争对手罗伯特·詹里克（Robert Jenrick）提供了容身之所，后者在今年早些时候从保守党叛逃至法拉奇的政党。

保守党和改革英国党领导人物之间的关系十分冷淡。目前看来，即便在某些问题上保守党和改革英国党相差不大，但达成统一右翼的协议仍不太可能。

不过，情况可能会发生变化。

“在选举之前总是很困难，”贝尔教授说。“如果下次选举使这两个政党合计能够获得可能的多数席位，那么他们也许能够达成某种协议。”

三个军政府在非洲推出电视频道

塞内加尔，达喀尔

该频道在尼日尔、马里和布基纳法索可用，并获得俄罗斯支持

作者：露丝·麦克莱恩（RUTH MACLEAN）和赛库·贾梅（SAIKOU JAMMEH）

将军们现在掌握了话语权。

上个月，三个非洲军事政府在俄罗斯的支持下启动了一个联合电视频道。这是在西非萨赫勒地区安全危机恶化之际，针对记者开展的大规模打压行动的一部分。

Tafouk TV 是一家口号为“主权非洲电视台”的频道，于上个月开始播音，服务于马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔——这三个国家近年来与法国等前盟友保持距离。去年，这三个国家全部退出了名为西非国家经济共同体（ECOWAS）的西非联盟，并成立了自己的萨赫勒国家联盟。

该新频道在马里首都巴马科播发，其名称取自塔马谢克语中“太阳”一词，主要展示有利于军政府的内容。最近的一档节目致力于初中学生的“公民与爱国教育”。

另一档节目则指责法国在尼日尔的一座铀矿“掠夺资源”。音乐视频中出现了士兵在皮卡车后方和军用直升机周围跳舞，并演唱赞美其军事领导人的歌曲。

这三个国家目前正与隶属于基地组织和伊斯兰国的武装团体作战，但日益恶化的安全局势似乎并非该频道的节目重点。

马里外交部长阿卜杜莱·迪奥普（Abdoulaye Diop）在 Facebook 的一篇帖子中表示，该频道在“充满敌意的地缘政治环境，以及叙事混合战的标志下”运行，他希望该频道能促进主权并“驱散恐怖主义的黑暗”。

应对这种使该地区动荡十余年的恐怖主义，是这些国家的军政府在通过一系列地区政变夺权时做出的重大承诺。随后，他们驱逐了曾协助打击叛乱的法国军队，转而寻求俄罗斯的军事支持。

俄罗斯对军政府的支持现已从战场延伸至电波。

然而，这些军政府并未能遏制暴力，反而在其统治下目睹了不安全局势的蔓延。“近几个月来，重大武装袭击明显激增，”追踪非洲冲突数据的武装冲突地点与事件数据项目（Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project）分析师 Héni Nsaibia 表示。

俄罗斯对军政府的支持现已从战场延伸至电波。今年 7 月，俄罗斯外交部长访问尼日尔期间，克里姆林宫旗下的媒体 RT 与 Tafouk TV 的总经理 Salif Sanogo 签署了合作伙伴协议。分析人士表示，俄罗斯媒体机构近年来在非洲不断扩张，雇佣能够使用当地语言工作的记者，并在整个非洲大陆推送亲俄内容，将非洲作为其虚假信息策略的试验场。

但现在，“俄罗斯正逐渐淡出该地区显而易见的宣传面孔，”安全咨询公司 Control Risks 专注于萨赫勒地区的分析师 Beverly Ochieng 表示。

她指出，相反，“萨赫勒地区的军政府和媒体平台现在正主导自己的叙事，但显然，这些将是非常亲政府的叙事。”

与此同时，这三个国家对记者的打压仍在迅速持续。

Moussa Kaka 是一位资深记者，曾就职于法国国家资助的广播电台法国国际广播电台（Radio France Internationale），偶尔也为《泰晤士报》工作，他自 8 月起失踪。同事们表示，他最后一次出现是在离开他位于尼日尔首都尼亚美的广播电视站之后。

“这看起来非常像是被国家安全特工拘留，”国际特赦组织高级人权研究员 Ousmane Diallo 表示。尼日尔政府尚未就 Kaka 先生的失踪发表任何评论。

上个月，马里的一家法院判处一名报纸主管 Abdrahamane Kéita 两年监禁——他是近几个月来在该国被监禁的第三名记者。

而在布基纳法索，上个月约 40 名记者完成了为期一周的军事化训练，他们手持步枪，身着军装。政府表示，此举旨在确保记者们变得具有爱国精神。

来源：胡塞武装和也门军队；战争研究所及美国企业研究所关键威胁项目（胡塞武装控制区）。SAMUEL GRANADOS / 纽约时报

红海之上的混乱之夜

胡塞武装如何迅速推进并夺取海峡

胡塞武装，见第1页

9月3日，这个由伊朗支持的组织开始向南发起大规模地面进攻。六天后，在充满混乱与恐慌的一个夜晚，胡塞武装夺取了约1,800平方英里的领土，这些领土俯瞰着曼德海峡。根据事件见证者的描述，以下是他们的推进路线。

虽然胡塞武装的胜利令许多人感到惊讶，但这在预料之中。

MOHAMMED HUWAIS / 法新社 — 盖蒂图片社

沙特新闻社

据两名美国高级官员和一名美国前高级官员称，数月来，美国军方和情报机构一直向沙特阿拉伯警告胡塞武装带来的威胁正在复苏，并敦促沙特官员统一也门政府内部四分五裂的武装力量。

据一名也门政府官员和两名也门高级军官称，在战败前，萨利赫将军曾联系沙特和美国官员，寻求更多支持以遏制胡塞武装。这些军官表示，他曾请求沙特提供空中掩护，请求美国对胡塞武装的通信进行电子干扰。这三名官员表示，萨利赫将军从这两个国家得到的帮助都很少。甚至在他自己的政府内部，有些人似乎也不愿干预。

现任和前任美国官员表示，美国官员提供了规划和情报方面的协助——包括胡塞武装的部队动向——但他们强调，其援助是有限的，且不包括空袭。

目前尚不清楚配备了美国战斗机和炸弹的沙特阿拉伯为何没有更深入地自行介入。沙特政府和白宫均未回应置评请求。

胡塞武装在去年的美国轰炸行动中幸存下来，并在加沙战争期间通过向以色列以及红海船只发射导弹和无人机而引起国际关注。也门分析人士表示，占据曼德海峡沿岸领土将使该组织更容易干扰航运。

胡塞武装令人震惊的胜利引发了一系列连锁反应，使也门陷入一场具有全球影响的战争。

任何外国军事行动是否能够遏制这支民兵组织仍是一个开放性问题。胡塞武装政治官员穆罕默德·阿尔-布海蒂（Mohammed al-Bukhaiti）将胡塞武装的胜利归功于多年战争中军事能力的提升。他表示，胡塞武装是在为“将也门从占领中解放出来”而战，并称其对手为沙特的“雇佣兵”。

接受《纽约时报》采访的两名也门政府士兵表示，他们最终将失败归咎于自己无能的领导层。

据其中一名战友称，一切崩溃是在9月9日日落后不久。

他回忆说，当时他与其他士兵驻守在靠近曼德海峡的历史港口城市摩卡（Mokha）市外，随后他们收到报告称胡塞武装战士正从多个方向推进。他说，突然之间，他们的通信中断，与其他部队失去了联系。接着，他们听到了喊叫声。

“撤退！撤退！撤退！”他回忆起战友们的呐喊，“胡塞武装已经到了！”

他们转身逃命。

叛军崛起

叛军崛起 胡塞武装最近的征服掩盖了其较为简单的起源。该组织始于 20 世纪 90 年代，最初是一个专注于扎伊迪派（什叶派伊斯兰教的一个分支）的宗教运动。其领导人随后发起了一场针对也门政府的武装叛乱，声称他们是在与腐败和外国影响作斗争。

学者们在伊朗何时开始支持他们的问题上存在争议，但胡塞武装最终成为了伊朗的关键盟友。

2014 年，他们占领了也门首都萨那，击溃了政府并引发了内战。沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国发起了一场旨在恢复政府的灾难性军事行动。数十万人死于暴力、饥饿和疾病。胡塞武装幸存下来，巩固了对也门北部的控制。

分析人士表示，在 2022 年停火后，胡塞武装利用战斗的间歇期变得更加强大且自给自足，并扩大了其武器库。

也门政府则未能如此。在战争期间，该政府变得日益碎片化且虚弱，依赖于其沙特和阿联酋的资助者——而这两者之间经常发生分歧。

“也门政府在目前这个时间点基本上就是一个虚构的存在，”华盛顿阿拉伯海湾国家研究所的非驻所研究员格雷戈里·约翰森（Gregory Johnsen）表示，“他们相互内斗的时间比对抗胡塞武装的时间还要多。”

该政府的关键人物之一是萨利赫将军（General Saleh）。作为也门前独裁领导人的侄子，由于他在不同联盟之间摇摆不定——时而支持胡塞武装，时而加入政府——多年来他树敌众多。

在阿联酋的支持下，他在穆哈（Mokha）组建了自己的武装派系。他的士兵人数约为 50,000 人，成为了抵御胡塞武装向南推进至曼德海峡的堡垒。随后，在 1 月，由于与沙特阿拉伯发生不和，阿联酋撤出了也门。沙特官员加强了对政府众多派系的控制。萨利赫将军再次找到了新的赞助者：沙特阿拉伯。

攻势开始

当美国和以色列在 2 月袭击伊朗时，胡塞武装起初似乎愿意在战争中保持中立。但在幕后，也门的停火协议已变成一种脆弱的僵局。

旨在达成长期和平协议的谈判——胡塞武装希望从中获得更大的权力以及获取石油收入的渠道——陷入了停滞。胡塞武装控制区的贫困状况极其严重，给该组织带来了压力。他们将此归咎于沙特阿拉伯，并对沙特限制也门领空的行为感到愤怒。

紧张局势在 7 月达到顶峰。胡塞武装指责沙特阿拉伯轰炸萨那机场，以阻止一架伊朗飞机降落。他们宣布对红海中的沙特航运实施封锁，而红海在伊朗战争期间已成为石油出口的关键航线。

（图片说明）上方：胡塞武装当局上个月组织的一次仪式，旨在纪念该民兵组织占领也门首都萨那 12 周年。左侧：曾在穆哈市被囚禁的胡塞武装成员抵达萨那。他们在胡塞武装占领穆哈后获释。左下方：由沙特政府发布的一张照片，图中是也门中将塔里克·萨利赫（Tareq Saleh，左）与沙特指挥官法赫德·本·哈马德·阿尔-萨尔曼（Fahd bin Hamad Al-Salman）中将。

他们向沙特阿拉伯发射了导弹和无人机，而该王国则在也门发动了空袭。

这次升级与伊朗的利益相吻合，伊朗官员正推动扩大与美国的战争，以增加特朗普总统的战争成本。

也门内部的冲突再次爆发，胡塞武装官员指责沙特阿拉伯及其也门盟友正准备对他们发动新一轮攻势。与此同时，该民兵组织悄悄准备了自己的计划。

据两名也门军官称，8 月 9 日，胡塞武装开始向穆哈倾泻导弹和无人机，破坏了港口并试图切断该市的海上供应线。

随后，在 9 月 3 日，胡塞武装发起了一场大规模地面攻势。

向海岸推进

胡塞武装发布的一段 39 分钟视频显示，其民兵在争夺红海海岸控制权的战斗中徒步攀登崎岖的山脉，挥舞着枪支欢呼。胡塞武装称该视频拍摄于战斗期间，但《纽约时报》无法独立核实。视频中还出现了几具瘫在车内的尸体，看起来像是也门政府军战士。在视频结尾，一名没牙的胡塞武装战士誓要“将敌人追击至其巢穴”。

五天多以来，政府军在摩卡上方的山地与民兵展开激战，一度将其阻挡。但最终，胡塞武装凭借导弹、无人机和炮击的猛烈攻势成功推进。据两名也门军官称，沙特阿拉伯仅进行了极少量的空袭以协助其也门盟友。

9 月 9 日傍晚至次日早晨，政府军崩溃。在极度混乱中，他们迅速且无组织地撤退。胡塞武装夺取了摩卡东部山麓的一个重要军事营地，使其敌人暴露在沿海平原上，处于易受攻击的状态。

政府军士兵并未重新整编，而是直接撤退到了南部城市亚丁，将包括曼德海峡内一座岛屿在内的整个红海海岸线全部交给了胡塞武装。

一夜之间，也门政府失去了约 1,800 平方英里（4,700 平方公里）的领土。根据萨利赫将军所属团体的声明，至少有 500 名战士阵亡，1,500 多人受伤。胡塞武装的死亡人数尚不清楚。

分散与伤亡

据一名也门政府官员和两名军官透露，摩卡陷落后不久，萨利赫将军及其几名同僚飞往沙特首都利雅得，并在那里入住了一家五星级酒店。

一名与萨利赫将军关系密切的军官告诉《纽约时报》记者，他目前正专注于重新集结部队并救治伤员。

他说，最终会对出错的原因进行调查。

在也门，萨利赫将军的士兵已经四散。据该军官和另一名士兵称，在其他派系（表面上是他们的盟友）战士禁止他们进入亚丁市后，一些人被困在亚丁市外。那名士兵在临时营地通过电话表示，他们已经好几天没有食物了。

在公开声明中，胡塞武装试图向国际社会保证，他们不对海上安全构成威胁，仅针对全球最大的石油出口国之一的沙特阿拉伯。

随着油价飙升至每桶 100 美元以上，胡塞武装开始推动进一步扩大领土，承诺要“解放”整个也门。

周日，也门政府领导人拉沙德·阿尔-阿里米宣布与该民兵组织进入全面战争。

对于已经面临严重贫困和饥饿的也门平民来说，战争的回归预示着更深重的苦难。近几周，已有 180,000 多人流离失所，他们经常挤在皮卡车和摩托车上匆忙逃离。

“那一刻感觉就像世界末日，每个人都只顾自己，”从摩卡附近一个小镇逃出来的哈桑·苏盖尔说，“我们甚至没来得及和邻居告别，也不知道他们怎么了。”

Vivian Nereim 发自沙特阿拉伯利雅得；Saeed Al-Batati 发自也门穆卡拉；Shuaib Almosawa 发自也门萨那。Mohammed Ali Kalfood 在也门荷台达提供报道；Eric Schmitt 发自华盛顿；Aric Toler 发自堪萨斯城。

乌克兰在顿巴斯夺回领土

乌克兰（），领导此次反攻的第三军团中校彼得罗·霍尔巴滕科（Petro Horbatenko）表示，旨在进行战场侦察。

乌克兰军队还重点消灭俄罗斯的精英无人机飞行员，利用信号情报来寻找并攻击其阵地和掩体。在俄罗斯使用光纤电缆引导无人机的地方，侦察员通过追踪物理线轴找到了发射点。

霍尔巴滕科上校表示，乌克兰准备工作的第三个要素涉及地雷。他说，乌克兰使用了先进的机器人排雷系统为部队清理通道。同时，乌克兰还利用无人机在俄罗斯的补给线路上密集布雷。

一旦舞台最终搭建完成，乌克兰便开始了进攻。

在前方阵线之后，乌克兰从空中投放的地面无人机携带炸药和机枪发起攻击，试图在俄罗斯后方制造混乱。与此同时，指挥官们表示，乌克兰沿前线使用装甲车推进，试图逐个清除俄罗斯的掩体阵地。

由于装甲车在无人机面前较为脆弱，其战场部署已经减少，但此次使用了增强型反应装甲进行保护。指挥官们表示，这种装甲利用受控爆炸来击退推进的无人机。

乌克兰士兵表示，被出其不意的俄罗斯军队经常向乌克兰军队已经推进的区域部署增援，从而导致陷入伏击。

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，到目前为止，此次行动已造成5,000多名俄罗斯士兵死亡，另有250人被俘。纽约时报无法独立核实这些数字。乌克兰不公布自身的伤亡数据。

在维瓦尔第行动之前，前线最大的变动是去年的俄罗斯突破。在2025年春季和夏季，俄罗斯突破了波克罗夫斯克（Pokrovsk）周围的乌克兰防线，向西在开阔地带向多布罗皮利亚（Dobropillia）推进了数英里。

双方都试图在基本陷入僵局的战场上寻找恢复推进的方法。

这次推进威胁到俄罗斯可能会切断乌克兰通往一条关键公路的通道，并从西南方向包围所谓的“堡垒带”城市——之所以如此称呼，是因为乌克兰在这些城市周围建立了沉重的防御工事。为了遏制这一突破，乌克兰迅速将其部分最精锐的旅调往该地区。

今年早些时候，莫斯科军队占领了波克罗夫斯克。在接下来的几个月里，他们继续向北缓慢推进。但据乌克兰士兵和军事分析人士称，基辅军队最终稳定了防御，使俄罗斯在达成战略目标前被迫停止。

乌克兰指挥官表示，俄罗斯决心重新获得势头，并且每天继续投入数百名士兵进行进攻。随着攻击和反击的持续，该地区仍然是前线竞争最激烈的地段之一。

乌克兰国家警卫队第一亚速军团（First Corps Azov）的一名指挥官基里洛·杜布罗夫斯基（Kyrylo Dubrovskyi）中校表示，该部队领导了该地区的防御工作，而一套名为 Delta 的数字化战场管理系统的整合，对于挫败俄罗斯的推进至关重要。

他表示，该软件使得“组织实时信息交换以及探测并清除敌方突击组”成为可能。

乌克兰最大的军事捐赠机构之一——“活着回来”基金会（Come Back Alive Foundation）的分析师米科拉·比列斯科夫（Mykola Bielieskov）表示，新技术、大规模无人机生产以及更好的协调共同促成了更有效的防御。这些进步中包括乌克兰在整个前线数万次任务中使用的地面机器人车辆。

俄罗斯的推进在很大程度上依赖于渗透战术。单个士兵或小团队徒步穿过所谓的“杀伤区”——这是一片宽数英里、布满了侦察和攻击无人机的区域。一旦进入乌克兰防御工事后方，部队就会集结、等待，然后发起袭击。

这种渗透战略导致了一个不断扩大的“灰色地带”，双方部队均在此出现，且控制权并不明确。乌克兰国家警察“柳特”（Liut）联合突击旅旅长亚历山大·拉舍夫斯基（Oleksandr Rashevsky）上校表示，双方在争夺单个林线、建筑物、道路和后勤路线。

“如今在顿巴斯没有简单的前线，不能仅仅在地图上画一条线就说：‘到这一点为止，一方控制该领土，而过了这一点，则由另一方控制，’”拉舍夫斯基上校说。

柳博夫·肖卢德科（Liubov Sholudko）和兹温卡·平丘克（Dzvinka Pinchuk）参与了报道。

交响乐团在关闭的肯尼迪中心排练

华盛顿

肯尼迪中心是国家交响乐团唯一的家，左图显示该乐团1月份在馆内的演出场景。上图显示建筑正面被围栏遮挡，特朗普总统曾威胁要将其拆除。该中心目前因装修而关闭。 ELIZABETH FRANTZ 为《纽约时报》拍摄 CAROLINE GUTMAN 为《纽约时报》拍摄

音乐家们正在一栋被特朗普称可能掉在他们头上的建筑中练习

作者：ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON

位于华盛顿的约翰·F·肯尼迪表演艺术中心目前处于关闭状态，而且是一个危险之地。问问特朗普总统就知道了。

本周，他表示这里“对任何进入其中的人都构成了巨大的危险”。上个月，他称一名保安在一次风暴导致大块天花板石膏掉落后，险些遭遇“必然的死亡”，不过当时并未造成人员受伤。他说，该中心处于“虚拟的坍塌状态”。

然而，在大多数工作日的早晨，100-odd名国家交响乐团的成员仍会来到他们前家的躯壳中进行排练。本周，他们正在中心的音乐主厅排练即将于马里兰州和弗吉尼亚州郊区演出的曲目，包括普罗科菲耶夫的 Symphony No. 5、海顿的 Symphony No. 85（“女王”）以及斯特拉文斯基的《芭蕾场景》。

正如其网站上宣传的那样，此次演出的主题是“在逆境中寻找希望与活力的音乐”。

到目前为止，还没有任何一名音乐家遇到过坍塌的混凝土车库平台、掉落的 2,500-pound (1,100-kilogram) 屋顶部分或“电力爆炸”——中心管理层表示，这些风险潜伏在每一个角落。

“我们很高兴能工作，”一名小提琴手在通过停车场入口匆忙进入大楼时于上周说道。这名小提琴手以及所有在进入大楼时接受采访的音乐家都要求匿名，因为他们担心乐团会遭到报复，而该乐团与肯尼迪中心仍有财务往来。

一名音乐家表达了希望她的同事们能“闭嘴”，专注于音乐而非政治的愿望。

另一人则表示，乐团在建筑中的出现，强化了一些前员工的观点，即政府对该建筑问题的描述被夸大了。

肯尼迪中心发言人 P.J. Elliott 本周表示，音乐厅对音乐家来说是绝对安全的，但对公众而言并非如此。他在一份声明中说，音乐厅“对于必要工作人员和国家交响乐团（N.S.O.）音乐家来说并非禁区”。“在关闭期间，音乐家可以在其中安全地排练。”他并未解释原因。

这一进展是特朗普接管该中心系列事件的最新篇章。简而言之：在第二任期开始不到一个月的时间里，总统清洗了肯尼迪中心董事会中拜登时代的任命人员，安插了将他推举为主席的盟友，随后宣布

在这场闹剧上演之际，美国顶尖管弦乐团之一仍需要一个在 2026-27 赛季进行排练的地方。

该场所将关闭两年以进行翻修。董事会中的民主党议员表示，这不过是为了掩盖门票销量暴跌和艺术家纷纷出走的尴尬而找的借口。

去年 12 月，特朗普将自己的名字挂在了这座纪念已故总统的活纪念馆上，但一名法官下令将其移除。当他上个月再次被拒绝时，总统宣布，除非法院允许他的名字出现在建筑正面，否则翻修工程将不会开始。随后，他威胁要将整个建筑拆除。

在这场闹剧上演之际，美国顶尖管弦乐团之一仍需要一个在 2026-27 赛季进行排练的地方，目前的音乐会分布在整个地区的六个不同地点。他们以及该中心的歌剧院管弦乐团（目前在名为 The Reach 的附属建筑中演出）是特朗普接管后唯一幸存的有偿演出团体。当地的音乐爱好者将其称为对乐团韧性的致敬。

上周的一个早晨，音乐家们开车来到中心的地下停车场 A 区，乐器箱放在副驾驶座上。他们停好车，穿过一扇贴着“NSO（国家交响乐团）由此走”纸质标志的门。期间，乐团指挥吉安安德烈亚·诺塞达（Gianandrea Noseda）拎着一件服装袋轻快地走来，停下来拥抱为他们开门的员工。

由特朗普任命的中心主任马特·弗洛卡（Matt Floca）在今年向董事会和媒体提交的报告中表示，“水分渗透导致整个停车场的混凝土平台出现腐蚀和弱化。已发现数百处受损区域。”

但中心的发言人埃利奥特（Elliott）先生表示，音乐家们前往主音乐厅所经过的“路线经设施部门和管理层评估为安全”。他补充说，不安全区域被列为“禁区”。该中心继续按日和按月出租其停车场。

代表前员工的律师大卫·Z·赛德（David Z. Seide）在一次采访中表示，乐团的排练“证实了我们一直以来的说法。这座建筑并不威胁公众健康与安全。”

“这是政府惯常言行不一的一种模式，”代表俄亥俄州民主党众议员、肯尼迪中心董事会当然成员乔伊斯·比蒂（Joyce Beatty）的律师诺姆·艾森（Norm Eisen）和凯尔·弗里尼（Kyle Freeny）表示。比蒂已起诉特朗普，要求保持建筑开放并禁止其名字出现在建筑正面。

弗洛卡先生表示，关闭是暂时的，且每周都会重新评估。包括国会民主党人在内的批评者质疑，既然国会在一年多前就拨款 2.57亿美元 用于全面翻修，并且每年支付维护费用，事情怎么会发展到这个地步。他们推测，这种每周评估一次的关闭方式是一种规避法官要求中心保持开放指令的策略。

在特朗普将自己的名字挂在建筑上后，乐团的观众人数下降了多达一半。作曲家菲利普·格拉斯（Philip Glass）撤回了原定由该乐团首演的新交响曲，格莱美奖得主、班卓琴演奏家贝拉·弗莱克（Béla Fleck）则取消了三场演出。其执行总监让·戴维森（Jean Davidson）于 3 月离职，并表示：“这不是秘密，今年确实是非常艰难的一年。”

在表演者、观众和捐赠者纷纷流失之际，自中心开业以来就入驻其中的华盛顿国家歌剧院也搬走了。但国家交响乐团与肯尼迪中心的命运联系更为深厚。中心负责监督乐团的预算，并在门票销售和捐赠不足时予以补贴，今年的补贴金额约为 1700万美元。

今年 2 月，特朗普开始要求中心在 7 月初前关闭，这将使乐团无处可去。乐团 2026-27 年度的预算申请在肯尼迪中心董事会那里搁置了数月未获批准，导致其无法预订替代场地。

肯尼迪中心的赞助人们组成了“拯救我们的交响乐团”（Save Our Symphonies），这是一个支持该乐团及其他处于财务困境中的中心音乐家的团体。世界级的表演者们自愿在私人住宅、公寓大堂和其他当地场所演出，在向华盛顿居民解释他们处境的同时，小心地避免谈论政治、接受媒体采访或以其他方式激怒总统。这些演出为他们赢得了新的粉丝和捐赠者。

该乐团目前仍缺乏一份经批准的预算，但在8月获得了肯尼迪中心董事会的许可，可以预订本季的演出。其公布演出日期的时间距离首场演出仅剩几周。

音乐家们上个月签署了一份新的四年合同。在马里兰州北贝塞斯达的斯特拉斯莫尔音乐中心（Music Center at Strathmore）举行的赛季开幕庆典上，热情的观众出席了活动，并在音乐会以国歌开场时欢呼。

“这将是一个有趣的赛季，”诺塞达先生告诉观众，“虽然偶尔会有些疲惫，但也会更加令人兴奋。”

特朗普助手现身巴尔干地区

华盛顿

竞选顾问协助波斯尼亚一个小地区的亲俄政府

作者：肯尼斯·P·沃格尔（KENNETH P. VOGEL）

上周，特朗普总统在全美各地奔波，试图帮助他的政党避免在下个月的中期选举中遭遇惨败，而他的两名顶级政治顾问则身在巴尔干地区，协助一个寻求加强权力掌控的亲俄政府。

据四名对其行程了解且因未获授权讨论巴尔干事务而要求匿名的知情人士透露，詹姆斯·布莱尔（James Blair）和克里斯·拉西维塔（Chris LaCivita）在刚刚过去的周日选举前，在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那一个名为塞族共和国（Republika Srpska）的小型自治地区停留了数日。两人目前正为特朗普的政治运作领导一项资金规模巨大的中期选举广告活动。

此次参与活动是特朗普顾问从海外极右翼政治人物身上获利的最新案例，这些政治人物在违背国际社会意愿的同时，试图寻求美国总统的青睐。

据两名了解此次参与情况的人士透露，布莱尔先生和拉西维塔先生分别通过一家总部位于华盛顿的律师事务所获得了数十万美元的报酬，该律所受塞族共和国政府聘请，就投票问题提供咨询。他们表示，这项工作是为政府服务的，而非控制该政府的民族主义政党，尽管两者本质上是一回事。

在该政党的领导下，塞族共和国与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir V. Putin）结盟，同时投入巨资争取特朗普先生及其支持者的好感。

特朗普先生周三与这些顾问的工作撇清关系，他在社交媒体上写道，拉西维塔先生和布莱尔先生是他政治运作的“外部顾问”。他表示，他“不知道他们还为谁工作，但经过反思，我会询问他们，如果存在利益冲突，我将立即终止与他们的合作！”

马尔科·久里卡（MARKO DJURICA） / 路透社

特朗普先生的盟友一直推崇该政党对基督教保守主义的接纳及其对加入欧盟的抵制。在周日选举前的准备阶段，该政党曾警告称，投票机的首次启用可能会威胁到其权力地位——而特朗普先生及其盟友一直将此类投票机错误地归咎为他输掉2020年美国总统大选的原因。

据报道，周日投票期间出现了一些延迟和技术问题。但该民族主义政党最终取得了压倒性胜利。

在周日的胜利演说中，该政党领导人、直到近期仍担任塞族共和国独裁总统的米洛拉德·多迪克（Milorad Dodik）感谢了普京先生的支持，并将特朗普先生在2024年的胜利归功于创造了有利的政治环境。

特朗普先生与这些顾问的工作保持距离。

塞族共和国政府未回应关于该项工作或相关款项的置评请求。

与美国总统有联系的政治顾问、律师和游说者向外国政府和竞选活动提供服务并不罕见。

但值得注意的是，布莱尔先生和拉西维塔先生于周一结束的这次塞族共和国之行，正值他们在他特朗普团队的努力中扮演关键角色，旨在限制民主党的收益并维持共和党对国会的控制。

布莱尔先生曾任特朗普 2024 年竞选活动的政治总监，他于春季离开了白宫副办公厅主任的职务，转而管理由特朗普支持的超级政治行动委员会 MAGA Inc.。特朗普 2024 年竞选活动的共同经理拉西维塔先生则是 MAGA Inc. 的高级顾问。

MAGA Inc. 的发言人亚历克斯·普法伊费尔（Alex Pfeiffer）拒绝就这次巴尔干之行发表评论。但他表示，在旅途中，布莱尔先生和拉西维塔先生依然全身心地投入到该委员会的中期选举工作中。

上述照片由姜海云（HAIYUN JIANG）为《纽约时报》拍摄。左侧为控制塞族共和国政府的政党领导人米洛拉德·多迪克（Milorad Dodik），他得到了特朗普总统的两名助手——上述左侧的克里斯·拉西维塔（Chris LaCivita）和詹姆斯·布莱尔（James Blair）的建议。多迪克先生的政党在最近的选举中取得了决定性胜利。

“詹姆斯和克里斯在周六上午与各选区负责人举行了一次团队电话会议，以审查最新的民调数据，”普法伊费尔先生在一条短信中表示。

这两个人并非唯一接受报酬帮助塞族共和国政府的特朗普盟友。

根据提交给美国司法部（DOJ）的记录，自去年年初以来，与特朗普及其共和党盟友有联系的游说者和操盘手已从塞族共和国政府获得了超过 400万美元 的报酬。这项影响力活动在去年年底取得了重大胜利，当时特朗普政府取消了对多迪克先生、其家人及其助手的制裁。

这些制裁最初是在奥巴马政府的最后几天对多迪克先生实施的。

在第一任特朗普政府期间，这些制裁继续有效，并在拜登政府期间得到了补充。

这些制裁是对多迪克先生破坏美国支持的《代顿协议》和平协议的惩罚。该协议签署于 1995, 结束了 20 世纪 90 年代前南斯拉夫境内波斯尼亚穆斯林、塞尔维亚人和克罗地亚人之间血腥的教派冲突。它将绝大多数为塞尔维亚人和基督徒的塞族共和国确立为波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的两个政治分区之一。

此外，该协议创建了一个治理波斯尼亚的三方总统制。它包括一个塞尔维亚席位（多迪克先生的政党在周日的选举中保留了该席位），以及一个波斯尼亚克人（穆斯林）席位和一个克罗地亚席位。

几十年来，多迪克先生一直是塞族共和国的主导政治人物。他曾被认为是一个能够缓解教派紧张局势的温和派，但随着他日益拥抱塞尔维亚民族主义和莫斯科，他在国际社会中的声望大幅下降。

多迪克先生的盟友试图将他塑造为某种“巴尔干地区的特朗普”。

他因不服从监督《代顿协议》的国际机构而被波斯尼亚法院系统定罪，导致他去年被撤除总统职务并被禁止担任公职。

但总部位于柏林的智库欧洲稳定倡议（European Stability Initiative）分析师阿德南·塞里马吉奇（Adnan Cerimagic）表示，特朗普盟友的支持以及制裁的取消，帮助多迪克先生及其政党顶住了本可能削弱他的国内和国际压力。

“这不仅为他在其政党选民中提供了合法性，而且在政治上加强了他对抗内部和外部批评者的能力，”塞里马吉奇先生说道。

南卡罗来纳州惩教署，经美联社提供 丹尼·西蒙斯 / 《田纳西人报》，经路透社提供 在上方左侧的资料照片中，是位于哥伦比亚的南卡罗来纳州死刑执行室，包括右侧的电椅和左侧的枪决椅。上方右侧，上周在克里斯塔·派克执行死刑失败后，应急车辆抵达纳什维尔的一所监狱。

执行失败引发对执行方式的审视

终结克里斯塔·派克生命的尝试失败，引发激烈辩论

作者：尼古拉斯·博格尔-伯勒斯 (NICHOLAS BOGEL-BURROUGHS)

克里斯塔·派克（Christa Pike）被执行死刑失败，导致田纳西州监狱负责人辞职，使派克女士陷入危急状态，并让人们重新关注执行死刑的方式。

试图通过注射致死药物终结派克女士生命的尝试以失败告终，这令其受害者——一名名为科琳·斯莱默（Colleen Slemmer）的19岁少女——的母亲感到愤怒。她表示，当两剂戊巴比妥未能杀死派克女士时，州政府未能实现正义。

在美国，大多数现代死刑——即1976, 年最高法院结束近10年的暂停执行期后进行的死刑——都是通过此类注射完成的，有时使用单一药物，有时使用组合药物。注射致死药物被引入，旨在作为替代绞刑或电椅的一种更人道的方案，尽管一些反对死刑的人认为，这只是为可能极其痛苦的死亡披上了一层医疗程序的伪装。

由于药企面临压力以及针对死刑的法律挑战，使得购买注射致死药物变得更加困难，一些州已授权采用其他方法。其中一些方法，如氮气窒息法，是新引入的；而另一些方法，如枪决和电椅，则让人回想起早期的时代。

根据国际特赦组织的资料，美国是去年执行死刑的17个国家之一。目前仍有27个州在法律上保留死刑，但在过去十年中，仅有16, 个州以及联邦政府执行了死刑。

近期民调显示，大多数美国人支持死刑，尽管这种支持度在近几十年有所下降。

在田纳西州，共和党州长候选人、参议员马莎·布莱克本（Marsha Blackburn）呼吁更频繁地使用电椅。而死刑的反对者——包括与她竞争的民主党候选人——则利用派克女士被执行失败的事件，呼吁完全停止死刑。

本周，派克女士在纳什维尔的一家医院中醒来，被锁在床上。周三的一场法庭听证会后披露的情况显示，她的病情依然严重。她的一只手臂有血栓，患有肺炎，且没有进食——律师在见到她时，她无法吞咽。律师兰迪·斯派维（Randy Spivey）表示，她无法移动手臂，双手肿胀得像充了气的手术手套。

俄亥俄州立大学临床外科退休教授、死刑研究专家乔纳森·格罗纳（Jonathan Groner）表示，他认为各州希望死刑看起来尽可能像医疗程序，部分原因是为了避免引起公众的反感。

“如果注射致死药物过程顺利，它看起来就像门诊手术一样，”格罗纳博士说。

在寻求执行死刑判决时，各州权衡了各种方法的细节，包括执行过程中可能出现的问题以及对公众舆论的影响。

注射致死药物

根据追踪死刑情况的死刑信息中心（Death Penalty Information Center）的数据，自1976年以来，约89%的死刑是通过注射致死药物执行的。

首次此类执行由德克萨斯州在1982, 年完成，当时查尔斯·布鲁克斯二世（Charles Brooks Jr.）因参与谋杀一名名为大卫·格雷戈里（David Gregory）的机械师，在亨茨维尔的一所监狱被处决。

死刑反对者利用派克女士被执行死刑时的失误，呼吁全面停止资本刑罚。

在派克女士上周的案例中，专家表示，致命药物可能进入了执行人员插入针头周围的组织，而非她的血液循环系统。这可能对她造成了伤害，但由于循环系统中的药物剂量不足以致死，她得以幸存。

即便在1982年，有效地插入静脉输液管就已是一个已知难题。德克萨斯州监狱系统的医疗总监表示，他在执行死刑当天早晨亲自检查了布鲁克斯先生的静脉。

此后，各州和联邦政府在执行了近1,500次更多致命注射的过程中，尝试了多种药物组合。

联邦政府在2001年至2003年执行的三次死刑中，采用了由巴比妥类药物、肌肉松弛剂和致命剂量的氯化钾组成的三药方案。当特朗普总统在首个任期内恢复联邦死刑时，司法部使用了一种单一药物——戊巴比妥，这与田纳西州上周使用的巴比妥类药物相同。

电椅

在致命注射出现之前，电刑是最常见的执行死刑方式。

美国使用电椅的历史可以追溯到1890年，当时威廉·凯姆勒因杀害其伴侣马蒂尔达·齐格勒，在纽约州中部的监狱被处死。

那次电刑过程并不顺利，囚犯在理应被电击致死后仍发出声音。他最终被宣布死亡，但参与其中的一名医生曾预测——尽管结果证明是错误的——这种方法将不再被使用。

相反，即使在引入致命注射之后，电椅仍继续被使用。在过去的50年里，至少有163人被电椅处决，最近的一次发生在2020年的田纳西州。

几次电刑导致了令人不安的场面，包括囚犯身上起火。

田纳西州允许1999年之前被判刑的囚犯选择电椅。弗吉尼亚州最近在2013年仍在使用电椅，尽管该州随后废除了死刑。

致命气体

美国最新的执行方法是氮气，通过呼吸面罩取代氧气使囚犯窒息。阿拉巴马州在 2024 年率先采用了这一方法，执行了肯尼思·史密斯（Kenneth Smith）的死刑，他是 1988 年刺杀伊丽莎白·多琳·塞内特（Elizabeth Dorlene Sennett）案中被定罪的三名男子之一。

阿拉巴马州表示，其他州可以效仿其方案。到目前为止，只有路易斯安那州效仿了这一做法，去年以该方式执行了一名男子的死刑。

阿拉巴马州和路易斯安那州的监狱官员表示，他们的执行过程符合方案，尽管多名证人报告称，在气体开始流动后，囚犯出现的抽搐令他们感到不安。

自史密斯被执行死刑以来，阿拉巴马州已对另外六名男子使用了该方法。但在 6 月，在一家下级法院认定该州的方案极有可能造成残酷且不寻常的惩罚后，最高法院阻止该州将其用于另一名囚犯。此后，该州恢复使用致命注射。

一些州曾采用其他气体处决囚犯，包括北卡罗来纳州和亚利桑那州，它们在 1998 年和 1999 年使用了氰化物。

加利福尼亚州自 2006 年以来未执行过任何死刑，但在 20 世纪 90 年代的两次执行中也使用了气体。

FIRING SQUAD

五个州授权使用枪决，但现代仅有两个州部署过。南卡罗来纳州去年通过枪决执行了三人的死刑，而犹他州最后一次使用枪决是在 2010 年。

爱达荷州今年生效的一项法律将枪决定为该州的主要执行方法。此前，该州在 2024 年尝试对托马斯·克里奇（Thomas Creech）进行致命注射执行但失败了。

4 月，特朗普政府授权在联邦执行中使用枪决。密西西比州和俄克拉荷马州都允许枪决，但仅限于其他方法不可用时。

许多人认为枪决是最有效的方法，尽管它本质上血腥——且并非没有问题。去年在南卡罗来纳州被枪决的一名男子的律师指控射手未击中其心脏目标，延长了他的死亡过程。

THE GALLOWS

绞刑在少数几个执行死刑的国家中较为常见，但在美国自 1996 年特拉华州用绳索执行一名男子死刑以来就再未被使用。

那是 1965 年以来美国第三次执行绞刑。另外两次是由华盛顿州在 20 世纪 90 年代初执行的。

在早期的绞刑中，绳索长度或绞刑机制的错误导致人们缓慢死亡或被斩首。

民主党试图最大限度利用有限的竞选资金

资金的后期注入

民主党赢得的席位数将影响众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries，上图）在就任议长后治理其党派的能力。民主党正在费城的一个选区采取重大行动，试图罢免众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克（Brian Fitzpatrick，下图）。 TIERNEY L. CROSS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

ERIC LEE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

宾夕法尼亚州，兰霍恩

深思熟虑，而菲茨帕特里克被认为太难被罢免。

民主党必须权衡重大赌注，以试图赶走少数根深蒂固的共和党人

作者：SHANE GOLDMACHER

随着特朗普总统的支持率暴跌，众议院的战场地图对民主党人来说正充满着诱人的可能性。但由于资金资源有限，当民主党战略家们在思考竞选最后关键四周的投资方向时，一个问题不断出现。

他们是寻求“租赁”——还是“拥有”？

民主党人正试图弄清楚资金在何处能发挥最大效用。是通过在成本较低的选区竞争以及争夺共和党地区的空缺席位来增加席位数量更为有利？如果这样做，在几年后民主党浪潮减弱时，他们可能难以保住其中许多席位。

还是说，投入更多资金并全力以赴，试图赶走少数代表民主党倾向更强地区的、根深蒂固的共和党现任议员，才是更好的赌注？这条路径虽然困难，但如果成功，可以让这些席位在更长时间内留在民主党阵营中。

尽管该党目前信心十足，但在 2024 年特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区中，民主党目前没有持有任何席位。

华盛顿州众议员、民主党国会竞选委员会主席苏赞·德尔贝内（Suzan DelBene）在一次采访中表示：“显然，我们希望在 2026 年获得尽可能强大的多数席位，但同时也要看向 2028 年。”

民主党困境的典型案例（Exhibit A）是宾夕法尼亚州第一选区。在这里，众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克（Brian Fitzpatrick）是众议院中唯一一名寻求连任且能在特朗普三次参选（2016, 2020 和 2024 年）均告失败的选区中获胜的共和党人。

在近期的选举中，民主党并未全力尝试击败菲茨帕特里克，他的选区包括巴克斯县（Bucks County）——这个费城郊区的摇摆地带，以及蒙哥马利县的一小部分。费城的媒体市场过于昂贵。

但在竞选的最后冲刺阶段，该党正在那里进行多年来最大规模的行动。

挑战菲茨帕特里克的民主党人鲍勃·哈维（Bob Harvie）在一次采访中表示，他上周接到了民主党竞选机构的电话，告知该团体计划向他的选区投入 $900,000。根据广告追踪服务 AdImpact 的数据，顶级的民主党超级政治行动委员会 House Majority PAC 在此基础上还预留了超过 600万美元 的电视广告时间。

据对参与讨论的六位以上民主党战略家的采访，关于在哪里消费的决定是逐日、逐选区做出的，其中大多数人以匿名条件描述私人战略。

他们表示，赢得众议院多数席位仍然是最至关重要的任务——即使这样做可能会在一些必须获胜的席位上显得浪费资金。但关于除了核心战场之外，哪些选区能提供最高投资回报，存在不同的看法。

“地图的规模超过了银行账户所能支撑的范围，”曾在民主党国会竞选委员会担任国家政治总监的伊恩·罗素（Ian Russell）表示。

民主党最终赢得多少席位，将影响纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）在明年如果成为议长后治理其党派的能力。但民主党赢得的席位类型也将塑造该党未来的政治战略。

与共和党温和派的较量

菲茨帕特里克先生曾是美国联邦调查局（FBI）的特工，他是那种正在消失的、典型的美国东北部温和派共和党人的缩影。他得到了顶级工会、枪支管制团体以及环保组织的支持，而这些组织通常支持民主党——在整个巴克斯县的十字路口，随处可见宣传这些支持的标牌。

菲茨帕特里克先生最新的广告将他誉为全国“最独立”的立法者，并展示了一系列对于共和党人来说极为罕见的背书，支持团体包括 LGBT Unity Fund 和人道协会（Humane Society）的一个分支机构。

“政党是目前我们国家面临的最糟糕的问题，”菲茨帕特里克先生周一在宾夕法尼亚州朗霍恩的一家犹太熟食店接受采访时表示。菲茨帕特里克先生说，在本届国会期间，他一次也没有参加过众议院共和党会议，且他家族的跨党派传统——他的哥哥在他之前曾在众议院任职——根深蒂固。

“当地人了解我们，”他说，“没有任何一项民调显示我们处于劣势。”

然而，他已经不得不花费超过 300万美元 用于广告——远高于哈维先生及其盟友至今的支出——而这场竞争依然激烈。全国共和党人在最后几周并未投入巨资，也没有预留广告时段。

“我认为他们觉得我们在这里没问题，”他说，“我认为他们是这么想的，但这在他们看来是一场赌博。”

民主党战略家认为，如果他们现在能将菲茨帕特里克先生赶下台，这个席位在未来将倾向于民主党。

毕竟，在 2024 年，特朗普先生仅失去了三个在当前周期开始时由共和党持有的席位，其中就包括菲茨帕特里克先生的席位。今年秋天，民主党的目标是翻转所有这三个席位。周一，其中一个位于内布拉斯加州的席位似乎已足够稳操胜券，以至于一个民主党团体开始撤回其广告。

然而，宾夕法尼亚州第一选区仍然是一个战场。

“我们目前所处的位置非常、非常、非常、非常难以翻盘，” 47, 岁的上汉诺威镇民主党活动人士莎伦·巴斯通在周日参加一场哈维先生出席的民主党烧烤聚会时说道，“但我认为今年是我们实现目标的一年。如果今年做不到，以后也不会发生了。”

在烧烤聚会上，一名参加者向哈维先生传达了一个好消息：一个由美国劳工联合会-产业工会（A.F.L.-C.I.O.）为他的对手菲茨帕特里克先生提供的巨型背书标牌，被紧紧地包裹在一辆卡车上，导致内容无法辨认。

在许多民主党人试图塑造一个独立于全国民主党品牌形象的时刻，巴克斯县专员哈维先生似乎并不担心与该党保持一致。他周日告诉一名选民，如果波多黎各和华盛顿特区希望成为州，他将支持这一主张。在烧烤聚会的发言中，他同时提及了词曲作者兼民主党活动人士芭芭拉·史翠珊，以及马里兰州民主党众议员杰米·拉斯金。

哈维竞选团队正在投放一条新广告，称“国会改变了菲茨帕特里克”，并重点强调了近期几次他与特朗普先生立场一致的关键投票。在 2018 年和 2020 年支持菲茨帕特里克先生之后，《费城询问者报》本月转而支持哈维先生。

“只有在党派允许他独立的时候，布赖恩才是独立的，”哈维先生在一次采访中说道。

脆弱的民主党人

现在是全国民主党做出决定的时刻。

党内战略制定者正考虑投入潜在的新资金，以击败俄亥俄州的两位共和党人——众议员迈克·特纳（Mike Turner）和众议员迈克·凯里（Mike Carey），以及密歇根州的一位众议员比尔·胡伊曾加（Bill Huizenga）；同时，他们正在威斯康星州加大投入，对抗众议员布莱恩·斯泰尔（Bryan Steil）。

这四个席位在2024年大选中，特朗普的胜幅均在个位数。

与此同时，在佛罗里达州，私人民调显示众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔（Maria Elvira Salazar）所在的迈阿密选区处于势均力敌的状态——就在两年前，特朗普在该席位的胜幅还高达15个百分点——但迈阿密媒体市场的广告成本可能会高得令人望而却步。

与此同时，一些民主党人担心共和党可能会对处于摇摆席位的民主党现任议员采取同样的行动。

共和党团体正投入数百万美元，瞄准纽约州众议员汤姆·苏佐（Tom Suozzi）和华盛顿州众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普-佩雷斯（Marie Gluesenkamp Perez）等立法者，而全国民主党团体对此基本没有做出回应。

例如，苏佐先生面临的外部反对支出高达$6.900 万，而支持支出仅约$340,000。杰弗里斯先生在刚刚过去的周末谈到了这场资金冲击，称其为数百万美元的“疯狂”浪费。

“民主党需要确保我们的胃口不要太大，我们的抱负不要超过我们的竞选账户，”蓝狗行动（Blue Dog Action）的高级顾问菲尔·加德纳（Phil Gardner）警告道。蓝狗行动是一个与温和派“蓝狗”党团结盟的超级政治行动委员会（super PAC），而共和党目前正将目标对准该党团成员。

他担心党内在最后几周将资金投入到那些遥远的选区。周一，民主党国会竞选委员会（D.C.C.C.）在其“由红转蓝”计划（该计划用于指定最关键的选区）中增加了六名新候选人，其中包括两个在2024年大选中特朗普胜幅超过20个百分点的选区。

曾任 D.C.C.C. 战略制定者且目前仍参与国会竞选的罗素先生表示，本月的情况可能会迅速发生变化，他回想起了2016年竞选后期剧烈的动荡。

“现在是选举周期中最有趣的部分，你可以决定在何处进行最后一刻的博弈，以抢夺几个额外的席位，”他说。“但你同时也必须意识到，政治环境可能会发生变化。”

中国的“自力更生”颠覆了与欧盟的贸易

去年在慕尼黑车展上的中国汽车制造商比亚迪。没有什么比汽车工业更能清晰地展示中国制造业的先进程度和产能了。 FELIX SCHMITT 为《纽约时报》拍摄

北京的生产驱动导致了失衡的经济关系

作者：SUI-LEE WEE

要理解欧洲对其与中国贸易逆差日益增长的担忧，请看一个惊人的数据：中国现在每收到一个来自欧洲的集装箱，就会向欧洲发送六个集装箱的货物。

在过去五年中，这一比例向有利于中国的方向增长了一倍多，因为北京推动更大程度的经济自力更生，扩大了中国在本土生产而非从国外购买的商品范围。

中国欧盟商会主席延斯·埃斯克隆德（Jens Eskelund）上个月引用了这些数据，并给出了一个简单的解释。

“中国制造一切，”他说。

这就是欧洲面临的困境，其对华贸易逆差每天超过 10 亿美元。欧洲消费者和公司仍然想要，且在许多情况下需要中国工厂生产的产品。而相反的情况则日益明显。

“中国人基本上在自力更生方面取得了成功，”华盛顿咨询公司 DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group 合伙人、前中国欧盟商会主席约尔格·武特克（Joerg Wuttke）表示。“他们还需要我们提供什么？他们生产的所有东西都过剩。而且由于规模效应，他们在各个方面都具有竞争力。”

多年来，北京一直追求自力更生，部分原因是将其作为一种保险，以防止与西方的紧张关系暴露经济弱点。在过去十年中，中国向旨在减少对外国供应商依赖的产业和技术投入了大量资源。

其结果是，贸易关系变得比标题数据所显示的更加失衡。中国国内价格的下跌意味着，以价值衡量的贸易额低估了进入欧洲的中国商品的实际数量，以及处于贸易争端中心的工业产能过剩问题。

埃斯克隆德已经确定了这些来自中国的集装箱中装载的部分货物——家用电器、电子产品、机械、家具、化学品和纺织品。

情况并非一直如此。

在中国 2001 年加入世界贸易组织后的几年里，其与欧洲的经济关系更具互补性。

中国向欧洲供应让许多欧洲人满意的廉价消费品，而欧洲则向中国日益增长的中产阶级销售工业机械、奢侈品和高端汽车。

随着中国制造业变得更加先进并向工业价值链上游移动，这种关系开始发生变化。

中国太阳能电池板、铝和钢的产量激增，压低了全球价格，重创了欧洲生产商。起初，许多欧洲人认为其影响仅限于少数几个行业。与此同时，中国对于欧洲公司来说仍然是一个极具吸引力的增长市场。

随后，中国加快了步伐。

2015 年，北京发布了一项名为“中国制造 2025”的工业战略。该战略阐明了中国在先进制造业占据主导地位的雄心，目标领域包括机器人、电动汽车和绿色技术。其中一个结果是，大量国家支持的资金被导向受青睐的产业。

“每个人仍然在某种程度上自我安慰，认为中国可以承担所有产品的低附加值部分，而他们（欧洲）将保留高附加值部分，”研究机构 Rhodium Group 专门研究欧盟-中国关系的合伙人阿加莎·克拉茨（Agatha Kratz）表示。

即便欧洲在很大程度上对中国出口保持开放，欧洲公司在中国国内却面临着重重障碍。

“作为在那里的大使，我厌倦了请求中方允许我们的公司在中国开展与他们的公司在西班牙开展相同的业务，”曾担任西班牙驻华大使六年直至2024年的拉斐尔·德斯卡利亚尔·马萨雷多（Rafael Dezcallar Mazarredo）表示。“他们礼貌地点头，但毫无行动。”

在中国最高领导人习近平的领导下，中国扩大了其工业雄心。北京推动了一项名为“专精特新‘小巨人’”的战略，旨在通过中小企业构建技术并解决国内供应链的脆弱性。另一项战略则是将国内更强的经济自立与中国出口产品持续进入外国市场相结合。

在许多欧洲分析人士看来，这种方向十分明确。“这是在‘比德国更德国’，”欧洲对外关系委员会（European Council on Foreign Relations）亚洲项目主任安德鲁·斯莫尔（Andrew Small）说道。

很少有行业能比汽车业更清晰地说明这种转变。

根据战略与国际研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）的数据，从2009年到2023年，中国政府向汽车领域投入了至少2310亿美元，该中心将这一数字描述为“保守估计”。

中国市场出现了200多家本土电动汽车制造商。由此产生的生产激增最终超过了中国自身的需求，引发了残酷的价格战，并迫使各品牌寻求海外增长。

到2023年，一些德国最大的汽车制造商——几乎所有这些公司在中国都有大规模业务——开始发布利润预警。大约在同一时间，中国的电动汽车制造商开始向欧洲扩张。

当欧盟对电动汽车征收额外关税时，中国汽车制造商增加了混合动力汽车的出口，这类汽车目前在中国对欧出口中占据很大份额。

上个月，当德国媒体报道大众汽车将关闭德国四家主要工厂时，这一公告标志着一个转折点。长期以来，德国汽车制造商一直是反对可能激怒北京的措施的最强力反对者，敦促欧洲在贸易政策上保持克制。

现在，德国汽车工业协会表示支持关税，这为德国对中国采取更强硬立场打开了大门。

埃斯克伦德（Eskelund）先生表示，十年前，“中国让每个人的蛋糕都变大了”。而现在，在欧洲公司在中国面临经济增速放缓和激烈的国内竞争之际，中国正在夺取欧洲的市场份额。

前西班牙大使德斯卡利亚尔表示，由于拥有5 亿高消费能力的消费者市场，欧洲对中国仍具有一定的影响力。

北京同样有理由避免让其与欧洲的经济关系恶化到与美国争端那样的程度。

“同时开辟两个战线，”他说，“不符合他们的利益。”

印度如何主导仿制药市场

纽约时报记者 HARSHA VADLAMANI 拍摄 左上图：位于印度海得拉巴的 Reddy's 实验室（Dr. Reddy's Laboratories）主园区，这里生产 100 多种仿制药，其中 75% 供应给美国的患者。左下图：位于迪格瓦尔（Digwal）的 Piramal 全球制药公司（Piramal Global Pharma）员工。他们工作的工厂开始生产一种救命药物，随后被空运至右上图所示的密歇根州里弗วิว（Riverview）的 Piramal 分厂。 纽约时报记者 EMILY ELCONIN 拍摄

纽约时报记者 EMILY ELCONIN 拍摄 纽约时报记者 HARSHA VADLAMANI 拍摄

印度，海得拉巴

廉价劳动力和数十年来磨练的专业技术助力该国在这一领域脱颖而出

作者：ALEX TRAVELLI

大多数人从未听说过位于印度海得拉巴的 F.T.O. U-3 工厂，但其产品与数百万美国人的生活息息相关。

在这座规模庞大的设施内，约 1,900 名 Reddy's 实验室（Dr. Reddy's Laboratories）的印度工人昼夜不停地工作，生产 100 多种仿制药，包括抗组胺药、他汀类药物和抗抑郁药。在每月生产的近 10 亿剂口服药物中，75% 供应给美国的患者。

“他们正在过量生产一切。而且由于规模效应，他们在各个方面都极具竞争力。”

印度制药业的规模使其成为了全球药物供应的基石。在这样一个高产量、低利润的行业中，印度能够以远低于其他地区的成本制造药丸，这为试图将生产线迁回国内的美国制造了一个几乎无法逾越的障碍。

特朗普总统表示，他希望通过利用关税向制药公司施压，将仿制药生产带回美国。

在 7 月的一篇社交媒体帖子中，特朗普先生表示，他计划从 2028 年起对仿制药征收 100% 的关税，一年后——届时他的任期将届满——再征收 200% 的关税。在美国开出的处方药中，仿制药占 90%，其中 40% 产自印度。

当美国上周对某些医药进口产品征收新的 100% 关税时，仿制药和许多其他产品被豁免。医生和供应链专家表示，对进口仿制药征税将提高成本，引发配给制，并导致关键药物短缺。

即使是对仿制药征收 200% 的关税，可能也无法抹除印度的优势。印度制药联盟（Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance）秘书长苏达山·贾因（Sudarshan Jain）估计，大多数在印度制造的药片和液体药物，在美国生产的成本将至少高出四倍。

印度在 20 世纪 70 年代开始涉足仿制药领域，当时西方跨国药企并不关注，而印度则优先为庞大且大多贫困的人口提供负担得起的药物。几十年来，印度拒绝承认药物专利，而其制造商则为其研发的、用于对富裕市场销售药物进行逆向工程的工艺申请专利。

到 2005 年印度专利法与世界贸易组织标准接轨时，其公司已成为处理复杂药物并向大部分亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲地区供货的专家。大约在同一时间，美国人开始接受仿制药。到 2004 年，仿制药在美国开出的处方药中已占到一半以上。

最大的利润来自专利药，因此贾因先生说：“在美国，一旦专利到期，人们就不再关注它了。”

他说：“但在印度，企业家们会继续研究和开发，而且在如此巨大的产量下，你制造它的技术会变得越来越精湛。”

这项业务有望继续增长。贾因先生表示，在未来五到七年内，美国将有 55 项每年价值 3000 亿美元的主要专利到期，这将为印度制造商拓宽渠道。

印度的优势不仅仅在于专业技术。总部位于孟买的 Piramal Global Pharma 首席执行官、美国出生的彼得·德扬（Peter DeYoung）经营着十多家工厂，包括在欧洲和美国。他说，在美国，劳动力成本“以巨大差距”成为最高成本，其次是能源和材料。而在印度，情况正好相反：材料成本最高，工人成本最低。

印度还拥有其他优势。德扬先生表示，在美国、欧洲或以色列（全球最大仿制药制造商特瓦制药工业公司 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 的总部所在地）需要四年才能建立的工厂和工艺，在印度一年内即可完成。定制设备的制造时间仅为德国或奥地利的一半。

多年来，如此严重地依赖印度工厂有一个弊端：质量。从 21 世纪初开始的一系列丑闻损害了该行业的声誉。其中最臭名昭著的违规者 Ranbaxy 公司在十多年前破产之前，曾销售劣质药物并就其工艺向美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）撒谎。

一本关于该丑闻的书后来成为了许多行业管理者的必读书目。书的后记提到，直到 2019 年，FDA 仍然在检查印度工厂前几天才发出通知，给经营者留出了掩盖劣质操作的时间。

这种情况已不再适用，至少在大型制造商中是这样。在特朗普先生宣布对仿制药征收关税两周后， Reddy's 博士公司经历了一次突击检查。Piramal 公司表示，其工厂（包括位于海得拉巴以西三小时车程的 Digwal 工厂）自 2012 年以来共经历了 415 次检查，其中 49 次来自美国食品药品监督管理局（F.D.A.），且未检测到任何严重违规行为。

Piramal 生产仿制药，但其更大一部分业务是为持有药物专利的客户提供合同制造。在美国保留小型工厂，使某些客户更容易监督生产情况。

这种地理分布揭示了尝试在本地生产所有药物的另一个问题。现代药物供应链无法简单地划分为“美国制造”和“从其他地方进口”。

在 Piramal 的 Digwal 主仓库中，一个密封桶产自印度，被运往新加坡后又运回，上面印着一家拥有美国地址的日本公司的品牌。

另一种药物（DeYoung 先生仅将其描述为治疗中枢神经系统疾病的救命药）的旅程始于 Digwal，然后通过航空运输到 Piramal 位于密歇根州 Riverview 的设施。

Riverview 是底特律一个安静的郊区，拥有宽阔的草坪和白色的尖顶，与 Digwal 截然不同。但 Piramal 印度和美国实验室中的专业设备协同工作，将药物转化为最终形态。

DeYoung 先生表示，将印度设施与目的地市场的工厂配对有充分的理由。某些药物需要极其危险的化学品，其中一些受美国缉毒局（DEA）管控。而另一些药物，如 sevoflurane（一种 Piramal 在印度和美国均生产的仿制麻醉药），即使在国际供应链完全崩溃的情况下也必须保持供应。

这提出了一个比“关税能否迫使药物制造回归美国”更根本的问题。

“那么，你们试图解决的是什么问题？”DeYoung 先生在谈到对进口仿制药征收关税的前景时问道。是为了给美国工人带回制药就业岗位？还是为了保障关键药物的供应？

即便印度公司在应对特朗普政府减少对印依赖的压力，它们也在努力解决自身在制药供应链关键环节上对另一个国家的依赖。

从 20 世纪 90 年代开始，中国成为了大多数药物所需的活性成分的世界主导制造商。印度现在正试图夺回这种能力。Jain 先生表示，这为美国和印度创造了合作机会，而不是将各自的制药业撕裂。

他说：“除非我们与美国合作，否则在原料方面我们将依赖中国。”因此他补充道，对于美国买家来说，“从印度储备”比在美国制造且支付“六、七或八倍的价格”更有意义。

中国在招募外国人工智能人才方面陷入困境

总部位于杭州的深度求索（DeepSeek）等中国人工智能公司在国际上已崭露头角，但中国在吸引外国研究人员方面仍面临困难。

美国通过雇佣全球科学家维持研究领先地位

作者：ZEYI YANG

在美国和中国争夺人工智能主导地位之际，特朗普政府增加了公司聘用外国研究人员的难度，而中国则将招募全球顶尖科学家列为国家优先事项。

在过去两年中，中国向国际研究人员敞开了大门，推出了针对科学家的签证，并提供丰厚的研究资助。

尽管做出了这些努力，外国人依然没有到来。

对中国的雄心而言，情况更糟的是，一项关于全球人工智能研究的新研究显示，在美国工作的中国科学家人数不仅没有减少，反而有所增加。

根据智库卡内基国际和平基金会开展的这项研究，去年在美国从事人工智能研究的中国研究人员中，每 30 人中仅有 1 人选择了反向前往中国。

该研究的负责人马（Damien Ma）表示：“尽管美中关系紧张，但与三年前相比，在美工作的华裔研究人员比例实际上上升了 4 个百分点，而非下降。”

该研究通过分析去年神经信息处理系统大会（NeurIPS）接收的研究论文来确定全球科学家的流动情况。NeurIPS 是一个专注于机器学习和计算神经科学的学术会议。马先生及其团队分析了论文作者就读大学、获得研究生学位以及最终工作的地点。

结果证实了人们的普遍认知，即美国和中国是产生绝大多数前沿人工智能研究的两个地方。研究发现，虽然中国未能招募到外国研究人员，但在留住本土人才方面取得了成效——这些人通过国内教育系统成长，且越来越多地选择不在海外寻求工作。

另一方面，美国通过雇佣外国研究人员维持其领先地位，其中许多人此前从中国以及印度、韩国等地移民而来。

卡内基的研究统计了从一个国家迁移到另一个国家的研究人员，但并未标明研究人员迁移的具体时间。关于在美工作的中国科学家人数依然保持高位的一个解释是，他们在特朗普政府去年实施签证限制和削减研究资金之前就已经抵达。

“存在一种延迟效应——这项研究中的研究人员大多在几年前就决定来这里学习或工作，”纽约州北部雪城大学研究在美亚裔学生的社会学教授马英毅（Yingyi Ma）表示，“美国的危险在于其吸引人才的魅力在数十年间缓慢侵蚀。等到这种影响在数据中显现时，已很难扭转。”

多年来，中国科学家及其全球同行被美国吸引，因为美国能提供初创公司的职业机会和充足的学术资金。但近年来，中国作为人工智能研究人员的替代选择已取得显著进展。

2022 年，在 NeurIPS 发表论文的前 30 家机构中，仅有 6 家位于中国；去年，这一数字上升至 12 家。北京大学和清华大学这两所中国顶尖学术机构位居榜首，超越了麻省理工学院、加利福尼亚州的斯坦福大学和宾夕法尼亚州的卡内基梅隆大学等美国重量级机构。去年，中国研究人员在 NeurIPS 发表论文的作者中占比 41%，超过了美国研究人员的 34%。

投资于人工智能技术的对冲基金 Interconnected Capital 创始人 Kevin Xu 表示，如今中国为人工智能研究人员提供了丰富的就业机会，包括资金充足的大学、大型科技公司和初创企业。随着深度求索（DeepSeek）和月之暗面（Moonshot）等中国公司在国际舞台上屡次崭露头角，它们对顶尖人才的吸引力也随之增强。

他表示：“在深度求索工作所能带来的职业声望和未来成功，与在 OpenAI 工作相当，这一事实与我们五年前观察到的情况截然不同。当时的选择是在谷歌和腾讯之间做出。”

中国公司的崛起或许可以解释为什么绝大多数中国人工智能研究人员选择留在国内。但 Xu 先生补充道，部分研究人员留在中国还有另一个原因：政府不愿让他们离开。

去年在美从事人工智能研究的中国研究员每 30 人中，仅有一名中国研究员选择了反向迁移。

今年，中国政府限制了 Manus 的两名创始人的出境。Manus 是一家人工智能初创公司，原计划被 Meta 以 20 亿美元 billion 收购。根据彭博社最近的一份报告，此后，中国人工智能企业家和研究人员——以及他们的配偶和子女——的出行受到了进一步限制。

虽然中国在招募外国人才方面陷入苦战，但在鼓励海外中国研究人员和高管回国方面取得了一些进展。

中国科技巨头腾讯去年任命前 OpenAI 研究员姚顺宇（Yao Shunyu，音译）为首席人工智能科学家。此举被视为人工智能研究人员在西方学习和工作后返回中国的最显著案例之一。

尽管中国提供了新的签证和资助金，但对于美国研究人员来说，硅谷提供的待遇和投资机会仍然比中国更具吸引力。此外，搬迁到一个移民较少且语言不同的国家始终是一项挑战。

“对于所有处于文化或数字‘围墙花园’之外的人来说，想要突破进入依然非常困难，”徐先生说道。

美联储的困境：科技繁荣对高利率免疫

安娜·罗斯·莱登 为《纽约时报》拍摄

左图，Meta在埃尔帕索的数据中心建设现场。高利率几乎未能减缓人工智能的发展。上图，美国联邦储备委员会主席凯文·M·沃什表示，他认为这项技术最终可能有助于抑制通货膨胀。 保罗·拉特杰 为《纽约时报》拍摄

巨大的AI建设规模阻碍了央行抑制通胀的努力

作者：科尔比·史密斯 以及 本·卡塞尔曼

美国联邦储备委员会在试图抑制高企的通货膨胀时，面临着一个难题。当今经济增长的主要驱动力之一，以及随之而来的价格压力，似乎对央行开始向经济施加的高利率几乎完全免疫。

那些寻求扩展人工智能能力的公司不仅没有被近期达到数十年高点的美国借贷成本所阻碍，也没有被电费、高带宽内存以及其他对持续增长至关重要的投入成本的飙升所吓退。

如果价格压力没有像许多政策制定者预期的那样在未来几个月内缓解，那么这对美联储的影响将是巨大的。为了将通胀率恢复到美联储 2 percent 目标，央行可能需要比通常情况更严厉地收紧美国经济，以充分减缓经济活动。这种调整的压力将主要落在对利率更敏感的行业上，例如住房和汽车行业，进而影响到这些领域公司雇佣的人员。取决于美联储最终需要抑制多少需求，已经开始冷却的劳动力市场可能会出现裂痕。

巴克莱银行全球研究主席阿杰·拉贾迪亚克沙表示：“美联储面临的问题是，美国经济通常有一个内置的修正机制，即利率上升，在某个时间点，以住房为首的利率敏感部门会剧烈减速，然后这种影响会传导到经济的其他部分。”

“但如果经济很大一部分对利率不那么敏感，且正是这部分力量在推动经济更快增长，那么遗憾的是，美联储就必须伤害经济中那些对利率更敏感的部分。”

AI建设的规模如此巨大，其衡量标准通常与国防或医疗保健的政府支出相关，而非私营部门投资。在最近的一篇论文中，纽约哥伦比亚大学经济学家斯泰恩·范·纽文伯格估计，从 2025 到 2032. ，在AI芯片、数据中心及其电力系统上的支出将超过 $10 trillion。这相当于每年美国总经济产出的 3.6 percent 以上。

这类投资中越来越大的一部分是通过借款支付的，从理论上讲，这应该使其对利率上升产生反应。然而到目前为止，几乎没有迹象表明更高的借贷成本在减缓这场繁荣方面起到了什么作用，如果说起到了作用的话。

摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德鲁·希茨表示：“如果这是一项真正的变革性技术，有可能在未来几年定义科技领域；如果你拥有借款进行这些投资的资产负债表能力；并且如果你认为这些投资将盈利并产生两位数的投资资本回报率，那么无论你是以 5.5 或 6 percent 的利率借款，实际上并没有太大的区别。”“那 50 个基点并不是决定数学计算是否成立的限制因素。”

企业在今年第二季度在计算机及相关设备上的投资超过 1000 亿美元，同比增长 60%，是 2024 年初投资速度的 1.5 倍以上。数据中心的建设（不包括其内部芯片）自 2022 年初以来增长了五倍多。

支出的激增部分反映了芯片及相关设备价格的快速上涨。但即使在剔除通货膨胀因素后，投资仍以极快的速度增长，且没有放缓的迹象。

范·纽沃伯格（Van Nieuwerburgh）先生表示，到目前为止，人工智能投资对利率上升和成本飙升并不敏感，因为其他瓶颈（例如监管审批的延迟）导致难以建设足够的数据中心以满足爆炸式增长的需求。

他说：“目前，我们正处于建设危机之中，关键问题是我们无法足够快地建成这些数据中心。”

他表示，如果一个项目获得了必要的批准，确保了所需的电力并克服了其他障碍，“那么在那一点上，无论成本如何，你都会去建设这个数据中心。”

如果人工智能热潮对高利率的影响免疫，那么其他部门将不可避免地承担大部分痛苦。

他补充说，借贷成本的增加可能会降低投资者在某个项目上能获得的收益，“但幅度不大，而且收益依然会非常可观。”

人工智能投资可能无法永远对高利率免疫。如果数据中心的供应赶上需求，或者该技术未能兑现其承诺导致需求冷却，那么成本将再次变得重要。即便在现在，已有迹象表明投资者正在重新审视一些更具投机性的项目。

许多经济学家也持乐观态度，认为从长远来看，人工智能可以提高生产力，使经济在不引发通货膨胀的情况下更快增长。美联储主席凯文·M·沃什（Kevin M. Warsh）是几位表示相信该技术最终能帮助抑制通胀的官员之一。

不过目前来看，人工智能热潮似乎在推高通胀，而非抑制通胀。而且这种情况发生之时，一些美联储更无法控制的力量——最显著的是与伊朗的战争——也在推高能源和其他商品的价格。

根据美国经济分析局的数据，包括芯片在内的商业计算设备价格在第二季度比去年同期上涨了 11.4%。这些价格上涨的影响已远远超出人工智能行业，影响到了其他企业以及消费者。8月份，计算设备的消费者价格上涨了 8.4%。今年，苹果公司表示，由于内存芯片成本飙升，将提高 Mac 和 iPad 的价格。

数据中心的建设热潮也在推高铝、铜和其他材料的价格，而这些价格此前已因特朗普总统的关税政策而上涨。此外，对电工及其他参与数据中心建设工人的需求正在推高劳动力成本。

美联储面临的问题是，它手中只有一种粗放的工具。它不能只提高某些行业的利率而保持其他行业不变。如果人工智能热潮对高利率的影响免疫，那么其他部门将不可避免地承担大部分痛苦。

给美联储增加挑战的是，通常受利率上升打击最严重的部门——住房市场，早在上周抵押贷款利率飙升至三年最高水平之前就已经陷入低迷。即便整体经济显著增长，但经通胀调整后，如今的住宅建筑部门规模比疫情前还要小。

因此，目前尚不清楚进一步加息是否能显著进一步放缓住房市场。

“你将从住房市场获得额外约束的空间有限，”前财政部官员、现任花旗集团全球首席经济学家内森·希茨（Nathan Sheets）表示。大约六年前，在利率跌至零时锁定超低抵押贷款的大量美国人不太可能被说服搬家，除非出于必要，这将确保房屋销售继续保持低迷。

新建筑工程也尚未回升，但建筑商并未因此导致失业，而是将重心转向了数据中心。

根据美国普查局的数据，仅数据中心的建设支出在 8 月份就达到了 850 亿美元 billion 的年率，是两年前年率的两倍多。

美联储还可以利用其他渠道，但这些渠道通常不如住房市场那样强效。随着利率上升，汽车贷款的每月还款额变得更加昂贵，信用卡债务的还款额也是如此。这可能会给财务缓冲已经耗尽的低收入消费者带来持续压力。

消费支出之所以保持强劲，很大程度上是因为美国人，尤其是高收入群体，受益于美国股市看似势不可挡的上涨，而这一上涨主要由人工智能公司驱动。问题在于，美联储在多大程度上希望抑制这种趋势。

沃什先生上个月将美联储加息的方法描述为移除一份“宽松剂量”，这让经济学家们不仅在猜测可能还会有多少紧缩措施，而且在猜测主席将如何衡量何时对经济施加了足够的约束。

PIMCO经济学家蒂法尼·怀尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）表示：“为了让整体经济冷却下来——而不仅仅是人工智能之外那些对利率敏感的投资——你可能还需要股市也随之冷却。”

股价的大部分上涨可归因于与人工智能相关的公司。任何抛售都可能对该领域之外的公司造成不成比例的打击，其中许多公司今年的涨幅要小得多，甚至出现了亏损。怀尔丁女士表示，根据影响程度的不同，这最终可能会给劳动力市场带来风险。

“首席执行官的信心当然与他们自身的股票市场价格相关，”怀尔丁女士说。“如果股价下跌，首席执行官们会注意到这一点，那么他们就有更大的动力去调整业务规模。这时就可能出现劳动力市场的调整。”

我在流亡，却每天回家

埃琳娜·瓦西里耶娃（Elena Vasilyeva）

你学会了带着永远无法回家的感觉生活。然后，一个传送门开启了。

华沙。白俄罗斯的流亡者有几种类型。

许多人是政治异见人士，他们在2020年反对总统亚历山大·卢卡申科（Aleksandr Lukashenko）独裁政权的抗议活动后离开。一些是经济移民。还有一些是“以防万一”的移民。我就是其中之一，因为在白俄罗斯，你永远不知道在哪个时间点，你的存在可能会变成一个问题。

我的国家有850多名政治犯。其中一些人在国外生活了几年后，做出了回家的鲁莽决定，因为不相信自己的案件具有政治性质，从而成为了囚犯。年复一年，你学会了带着永远无法回家的感觉生活。

然后，神奇的事情发生了。

我四年前搬到波兰，在第一次遇到它时，对这个国家还几乎一无所知。我和几个朋友去了维斯图拉河（Vistula）岸边，这条河将华沙分成了两半。当时那里在举办某种节日，白俄罗斯的乐队正在演出。我们身在维斯图拉河畔，但不知怎么地，我发现自己置身于斯维斯拉奇河（Svislach）岸边——那是将白俄罗斯首都明斯克分为两半的河流。

“你也看到了吗？”我问我的朋友，她也是白俄罗斯人。

没有，她没看到。对她来说，维斯图拉河看起来完全正常。但我确信，如果我转身，我最喜欢的酒吧就在身后，而且我能买到Depo煎饼咖啡馆里那些传奇的可丽饼。

我把在维斯图拉河畔这次奇怪的幻觉告诉了白俄罗斯作家帕维尔·安蒂波夫（Pavel Antipov）。作为一名文字工作者，他迅速为我一直称之为“某种东西”的现象起了一个恰当的名字：“传送门”。当然——它们就是传送门，无论你在哪里，都能带你回家。

他知道这个词，是因为另一位白俄罗斯作家塔季扬娜·扎米罗夫斯卡娅（Tatsiana Zamirovskaya）在她的一个故事中描述过这些传送门。住在美国的塔季扬娜告诉我，她在波士顿遇到一座音乐厅，看起来和明斯克的一座一模一样。“那是一种超现实的体验，”她说，“我真的以为自己在那一秒被瞬间移动了。”

在这一启发下，我开始询问朋友和白俄罗斯流亡同胞是否也有类似的经历。结果发现，我们中有数百人经历过。我不知道是什么开启了传送门。视觉上的相似？也许是声音？或者是气味？无论如何，证词接踵而至。

“看，我回到明斯克了！但我的背后是罗马斗兽场，”我的朋友伊万·里姆沙（Ivan Rymsha）从罗马写信告诉我。“我在西班牙的马拉加（Málaga）发现了一个街区，让我想起我在明斯克住过大约两年的那个区域，”多年未见的尤利娅·马图扎娃（Yuliya Matuzava）给我发消息说。“那是我的学生时代。尽管有苏联风格的氛围，但我真的很喜欢那个社区。”

玛莎·卡列斯尼科娃（Masha Kalesnikava）是一名记者，她在抗议开始一年后的2021,离开了白俄罗斯。对于我们国家的记者来说，总会有一个时刻，你必须在家乡和职业之间做出选择。目前仍有21名白俄罗斯媒体从业者在狱中。

坐在华沙的厨房里，玛莎说：“野草总是能为我开启一个传送门。”

在她和我的公寓周围，都没有人修剪草坪。每当她看到那些高大、未经修剪的野草，一个传送门就会开启，通往波列西耶（Polesie）——那是白俄罗斯靠近乌克兰的一个地区，她的母亲就住在那里。

野草对我来说也是一个传送门，但它通往我的祖母那里。小时候，在任何人有机会修剪之前，我们经常在祖父母的院子里践踏三叶草。每次回到我在华沙的公寓，感觉就像是通过过去走到了那里。

对于我的大学同学塔季扬娜·卢卡舍维奇（Tat-siana Lukashevich）来说，杨树皮的味道会将她带回祖母家。“它有一种非常独特的气味——无论是被阳光晒热，还是被雨水打湿，”她说。“当你捕捉到这个味道，会愣住一会儿。然后，你就被带回了祖母的村庄。”

[...OMITTED...]

如你所见，传送门经常将人们带回祖母身边。归根结底，传送门引导你前往的并非“何处”，而是“何时”。

显然，我触及了一些关键点。这并非我的个人怪癖，而且我认为这不仅仅是白俄罗斯人的体验。毕竟，我们生活在一个大规模流离失所的时代。根据联合国的数据，全球有近 1.18 亿 人流离失所，人们为了逃离战争、贫困和灾难而迁徙。每当我读到关于数千人移民的新闻报道时，我都会想到，不久之后，某个地方将开启新的传送门。

不久前，我与一名来自叙利亚的记者霍卢德·赫尔米（Kholoud Helmi）交谈。我们生活的背景截然不同，移民身份也不同。但当我向她提起传送门时，她立刻明白了我在说什么。

“在英国，我走在街上，感觉到了一些东西。我停下来，开始回头追寻那个气味，”她告诉我，“那种感觉以一种非常奇怪的方式让我想起了家。我意识到其中一个邻居种了一棵茉莉花树，这让我想起了家乡街道上经常闻到的气味。”

我听说有时传送门会关闭。我不知道还需要多少年，我回家的最后一个传送门才会关闭，直到华沙的新世界街（Nowy Swiat）开始让我联想到它本身，而不是明斯克的胜利大道（Pobediteley Avenue）。我的某些朋友已经经历了这种情况。

但这种情况还没有发生在我的身上。最近，我在柏林过马路时，感觉到另一个传送门开启了。我觉得如果我回头，就能看到离开明斯克时正在重建的旧胜利电影院（Pobeda Cinema）。我想回头看看它最终变成了什么样。

但这场游戏的主要规则是：你不能回头。一旦你回头，传送门就会消失。

埃琳娜·瓦西里耶娃（ELENA VASILYEVA）是一位常驻华沙的白俄罗斯记者。

WERONIKA MARIANNA

普京在欧洲绝望且危险的博弈

俄罗斯总统希望欧洲大陆停止对乌克兰的支持，且他的警告正变得愈发露骨。

劳伦斯·弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）

伦敦——2022年初，关于俄罗斯是否真的会入侵乌克兰，人们进行了大量争论。

很少有人怀疑入侵是一种可能性。约160,000名俄罗斯军队已被部署到乌克兰边境附近地区。弗拉基米尔·普京总统认为乌克兰是一个人造国家，其政府不合法，且实际上属于俄罗斯，这早已不是秘密。

当时的争论集中在普京先生的行为和虚张声势是否仅仅是为了作秀。包括我在内，那些认为入侵不太可能发生的人，并不是因为普京先生说过不会发生才这么认为的；我们很清楚不能依赖他的否认。但我们也知道，入侵将是一项荒谬的尝试。乌克兰人肯定会战斗，并得到欧洲和美国的支撑，即使他们的军队被击败，他们也会抵抗被征服。普京先生将不可避免地陷入一场长期的冲突，而他将难以让自己及其军队从中脱身。

结果证明，我们这些怀疑者对了一半：入侵确实是一个糟糕的主意。但普京先生还是执行了。

近几个月来，随着俄罗斯对欧洲的混合攻击变得日益大胆，我再次想起了近五年前的那些争论。既然当时他计算得如此之差，那么普京先生现在是否可能犯下更大的误判，并将其过度扩张、疲惫不堪的军队投入到另一场潜在规模更大的战争中？他是否绝望到为了避免在乌克兰遭遇屈辱性的失败，而愿意在他最初的赌注上加大筹码？这将是另一项荒谬的尝试，但我们敢将其排除在外吗？

上个月，在载有英国前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊及其他欧洲显贵的人员火车离开后不久，一架俄罗斯无人机袭击了乌克兰与波兰边境附近车站的一列客运火车。前美国中央情报局（C.I.A.）局长大卫·彼特雷厄斯在袭击发生时正身处该车站。

德国政府表示，8月初在德国东部的莱比锡 / 哈勒机场，一架乌克兰货机附近发现了一架携带爆炸物的无人机，其背后是俄罗斯。俄罗斯的侦察无人机曾在敏感目标上空飞行。与向乌克兰供应武器的工业相关的设施已被侦察，且偶尔遭到袭击。

“混合”一词通常指非军事活动——例如网络攻击和虚假信息——旨在探测红线并使其目标不稳定。通过使攻击保持在可否认且低于全面战争阈值的状态，俄罗斯可以在不触发军事报复的情况下，表达政治观点并制造威胁感。但目前的俄罗斯行动正接近边缘，因为被归于莫斯科的攻击已造成重大损失。其中一些攻击本可能导致人员伤亡，而目前没有发生似乎更多是运气好。在规模和目的上看似微小的增加，或者仅仅是一次误判，都可能将我们带入一个全新且更危险的境地。

纽约时报插图；原图由盖蒂图片社（GETTY IMAGES）提供

俄罗斯人之所以玩这个游戏，是因为他们绝望地希望按照自己的条件结束与乌克兰的战争。欧洲对乌克兰持续的资金和军事支持被视为胜利的障碍。普京先生在警告上变得愈发露骨，在行动上变得愈发大胆，旨在让欧洲人停止支持。西方的重新武装计划时间表假设，在未来几年军队重建之前，俄罗斯将没有能力尝试任何行动，而且即便到那时，一个

军事冒险将比 2022 年时更像一场赌博，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯军队此后在试图击败一个规模小得多的国家时一直陷入苦战。

战争研究所（Institute for the Study of War）充分阐述了我们为何仍应担忧的论点，具体如下：普京先生认为与北约的冲突是深层的、关乎生存的，且超出了乌克兰的范畴。在某个时间点，这场冲突将达到顶峰，而俄罗斯内部存在不应等待的论调。由于欧洲的重新武装仍处于早期阶段，俄罗斯可能会在联盟能够做出全面回应之前发动袭击。这种袭击不需要是全面战争，而可以是针对波罗的海国家之一的有限行动，对此俄罗斯可能拥有足够的兵力。爱沙尼亚已被提及。普京先生可能会计算，任何攻击都会使北约陷入震惊状态，其成员国在是否触发第 5 条的问题上犹豫不决，并最终削弱欧洲支持乌克兰的政治意愿。而由特朗普总统领导的美国，预计将几乎不采取行动。

如果此类攻击按计划进行，可能会制造一场危机，从而孤立乌克兰，削弱北约，并使俄罗斯处于更有利于自我主张的地位。

但这仍然是一次高风险行动。俄罗斯没有多少冗余能力。西方情报机构极有可能像 2022 年那样发现准备迹象，从而降低完全出其不意的可能性。即使某些北约成员国不愿参与，受影响最严重的国家能够且极有可能在不等待集体回应的情况下进行自卫。一个起初看似可控的行动可能会迅速升级为规模大得多的冲突。

2022 年，普京先生因过度自信而采取大胆行动，错误地假设他能获得快速胜利，使乌克兰屈服并让北约震惊。如果他现在对另一个欧洲国家采取行动，那将是出于绝望，且面临更糟糕结果的前景。

然而，这一次无需对普京先生的计划进行无休止的推测。无论他是继续维持目前的挑衅水平，还是提高威胁等级——甚至冒着爆发大规模战争的风险——欧洲国家无论是否有美国的参与，都应采取相同的政策。首先，领导人应准备好公开谴责俄罗斯，并就这些危险、斗争的性质以及如何最好地应对俄罗斯的威胁与公民坦诚沟通。其次，他们必须更好地防御在任何层面发生的袭击，这需要加强情报工作并加速重新武装计划。第三，为了证明俄罗斯的努力将会失败，他们应该给乌克兰提供更多的支持。

劳伦斯·弗里德曼（LAWRENCE FREEDMAN）是伦敦国王学院战争研究的荣休教授，其最新著作包括《论战略家与战略：论文集，2014-2024》（On Strategists and Strategy: Collected Essays, 2014-2024）。他也是时事通讯 Comment Is Freed 的作者。

纽约时报

国际版

A.G. SULZBERGER 出版人

JOSEPH KAHN 执行主编 MARC LACEY 主编 CAROLYN RYAN 主编 SUZANNE DALEY 副主编

KATHLEEN KINGSBURY 评论版编辑

MEREDITH KOPIT LEVIEN 首席执行官 MICHAEL GREENSPON 高级副总裁兼总经理 HELEN KONSTANTOPOULOS 副总裁，国际发行 HELENA PHUA 执行副总裁，亚太地区 SUZANNE YVERNÉS 国际首席财务官

西伯利亚鼠疫恐慌揭示我们尚未准备就绪

吉吉·奎克·格隆瓦尔 (Gigi Kwik Gronvall)

一名在西伯利亚一家抗鼠疫研究实验室工作的28岁女性于10月2,日死亡，这引发了人们的担忧和诸多疑问。俄罗斯官员表示，该女性死于原因不明的肺炎，且她工作的实验室并未发生任何“紧急情况”。他们声称，针对其接触者的疾病监测调查已接近尾声，未发现令人担忧的情况。

俄罗斯方面的声明与其他地方关于事件真相的激烈猜测形成了鲜明对比。来自当地媒体的初步且未经证实地报告称，该实验室工作人员意外打破了一支含有鼠疫杆菌（Yersinia pestis，引起鼠疫的细菌）的试管。包括一家产科医院在内的当地医院限制了访客并加强了健康检查。当地一家工厂要求员工佩戴口罩。

世界卫生组织根据现有的非官方信息表示，“对普通人群的公共卫生风险似乎较低”。事实上，现有证据并未指向一场全球性的鼠疫

联盟将其武器库中纳入了鼠疫杆菌，即鼠疫的致病原。

疾病的突袭可能来自许多地方。正因如此，美国如此孤立自己令人沮丧。在1月退出世卫组织并召回外派至该组织的美国专家后，美国现在获取潜在疾病紧急情况直接信息的渠道减少了。美国国际开发署的解散切断了可以通过其识别新兴威胁的科学合作与关系。对传染病研究的削减和限制削弱了美国科学家帮助在国际上建立安全实验室实践的能力。这个国家正在削弱其获取重要公共卫生信息的能力，以及对后续事态发展的影响力。

特朗普政府解雇了卫生与公众服务部的数千名员工，包括疾病控制与预防中心以及战略准备与响应管理局的流行病专家。失去这些专业知识削弱了耗时多年才建立起来的能力。

世界根本没有为大规模疾病爆发做好准备。

紧急情况。但这次悲剧性的死亡应该促使每个人思考，我们是否有能力识别并遏制下一个疾病威胁。

没有任何快速修复方案——也没有任何人工智能模型——能够取代在调查和评估全球任何地方疾病爆发真实情况时所需的专业判断、经验和信任关系。传染病不分国界。

虽然鼠疫当然致命，但如果能迅速识别，可以用抗生素治疗。据传西伯利亚实验室工作人员感染的鼠疫形式被称为肺鼠疫。它感染肺部并可以在人与人之间传播——这与14世纪黑死病的可能原因鼠疫腺鼠疫不同，后者主要通过跳蚤叮咬传播。

但即使是肺鼠疫，其传播力也相对有限。从历史上看，一名感染肺鼠疫的人平均会将疾病传播给1.3个人；相比之下，在未接种疫苗的人群中，麻疹可能会传播给12到18个人。目前尚未有记录显示肺鼠疫在症状出现前即可传播，因此护理人员和密切接触者感染风险最高。口罩、接触者追踪、隔离以及其他既定的感染控制程序应该能有效限制肺鼠疫的传播。

尽管如此，关于西伯利亚发生的事情，我们应当获得比俄罗斯目前提供的更详尽的答案。是否发生了实验室事故？如果是，何时被察觉，受影响的实验室工作人员接受了怎样的治疗？是什么促使相关部门对其接触者进行了广泛监测？外界的担忧在一定程度上源于对生物武器的猜测。美国情报界评估认为，俄罗斯拥有一个秘密的生物武器计划。前苏联

在 Covid-19 疫情期间，美国的生物技术和生物专业知识助力提供了疫苗、诊断工具和治疗方案。当时的应对措施存在严重的缺陷，特别是未能迅速扩大诊断检测规模，以及在疫情初期医疗人员缺乏个人防护装备。国家应当在现有能力基础上进行建设并纠正这些失败。相反，在数千名美国人（包括许多儿童）遭受麻疹等可预防感染之苦的同时，美国的公共卫生基础设施正在被削弱。国家还在破坏针对未来潜在威胁的准备工作，例如 H5N1 流感（禽流感）。该病毒最近在美国的一家貂养殖场被检测到，且仍是一种潜在的流行病病原体。特朗普政府取消了一项开发人类 mRNA H5N1 疫苗的合同。

从西伯利亚一起原因不明的死亡事件中应当吸取的教训是，疾病紧急情况需要证据、专业知识和合作。它们需要对用于调查和限制疾病爆发的工具进行持续投资。最重要的是，它们需要对能够使用这些工具的人才进行投资。

吉吉·奎克·格隆瓦尔（GIGI KWIK GRONVALL）是一位免疫学家，也是约翰·霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院环境健康与工程系的教授。她是即将出版的著作《我们的生物未来：生命、健康与地球的十字路口》（Our Biological Future: A Crossroads for Life, Health, and the Planet）的作者。

插图：BINA THORSEN。原图：CHRIS WARE / STRINGER VIA GETTY IMAGES。

《迷离空间》曾发出过警告

艾伦·塞平沃尔 (Alan Sepinwall)

在创作《迷离空间》（The Twilight Zone）之前，罗德·瑟林 (Rod Serling) 陷入了困境。他在电视行业中建立的声誉基本上就是“在亚伦·索金出现之前的亚伦·索金”：一位著名的严肃成人剧作家，致力于探讨政治腐败或企业生活的非人性化等重大当代议题。

他还经常就允许编写的内容以及剧本的尺度与赞助商发生争执。例如，当他尝试创作关于 1955 年黑人少年埃米特·蒂尔 (Emmett Till) 被私刑处死的虚构版本时，由于赞助商和网络的压力，最终产品被大幅削减，导致其在后来接受迈克·华莱士 (Mike Wallace) 采访时将其描述为“一种平淡、被削弱且失去力量的节目”。

瑟林不想制作那种节目。因此，在被要求删除一部名为《竞技场》（The Arena）、关于一名美国参议员的电视剧本中几乎所有涉及当代政治的内容后，他意识到：“如果我把它写成科幻小说，设定在 2057, 年，并让参议院由机器人组成，我可能会写出一出更成熟的剧作，”他在回顾这段经历时这样写道。

瑟林显然将《竞技场》的教训应用到了更广阔的画布上，他开始创作与我们现实世界截然不同的推想故事，并将其汇编成一部于 1959 年首播的名为《迷离空间》的系列剧。由于该剧经常采用幻想场景，且总是在结尾处有出人意料的反转，其风格化极强，瑟林发现自己终于可以讲述不加掩饰的真相。

近 70 年后，在我们的处境显得日益阴森且超现实的时刻——当你审视从政治腐败到企业渎职，再到铺天盖地的日常头条新闻时，很难不觉得仿佛进入了一个超越人类认知范围的第五维度——瑟林处理政治议题的精明策略提供了一个具有启发性的回应。

ARIEL DAVIS

当代电视节目经常难以应对当前的政治黑暗；虽然像《正义之战》（The Good Fight）这样的剧集直接面对了第一个特朗普政府，但在第二个任期内，很少有剧集能做到这一点。一些像《南方公园》（South Park）这样的讽刺剧采取了直接抨击的方式，而另一些像《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live）的节目在处理政治动荡时则经常显得不知所措。

通过《迷离空间》，瑟林意识到他可以使用寓言来表达政治观点。毕竟，当故事围绕一个长三只手臂的火星人展开时，网络审查员或观众怎么能愤怒地坚持认为这个故事在对世界发表某种争议性言论呢？

这或许可以解释为什么《迷离空间》至今仍显得如此令人难以置信——有时甚至令人沮丧地——具有现实意义。瑟林及其合作者反复且隐秘地探讨了偏见、潜行的威权主义、人类被技术取代的危险，以及将从众视为社会理想的危机，这些方式至今仍能引起共鸣。许多剧集在现在回看时，感觉就像是五分钟前刚写成的一样。

罗德·瑟林为理解我们超现实的现实创建了一套持久的蓝图。

这部剧触及了我们尚未能充分回答的社会问题。瑟林，一位犹太裔美国人（幽灵）。在《惠普尔的大脑中心》（The Brain Center at Whipple’s）中，一家制造厂冷漠的所有者欣然用机器取代了他的血肉之躯的工人，对他前工厂经理关于人类思想和情感价值的恳求不为所动；最终，他自己也被一个机器人取代了。

在第二次世界大战期间参军与纳粹作战，他经常与合作者一起探讨法西斯主义的危险，以及人们多么容易屈服于其诱惑，相关内容可见于《过时的人》（The Obsolete Man，讲述一名图书管理员在书籍被禁的乌托邦中被判死刑）和《他还活着》（He’s Alive，讲述一名仇恨煽动者在希特勒的指导下崛起）等剧集。

《12号长得和你一样》（Number 12 Looks Just Like You）设定在这样一个未来：每个人在年满19岁时，都会被强制移植到少数几种符合传统审美标准的身体之中。这就像如今人们刷Instagram动态，每个人都使用相同的滤镜，或者陷入对“颜值最大化”（looksmaxxing）的痴迷。而特朗普总统冲动且具有破坏性的行为，也经常被比作《生活真美好》（It's a Good Life）的情节，该剧讲述了一个名叫安东尼·弗里蒙特（Anthony Fremont）的全能儿童如何将整个小镇掌控在手中的故事。

瑟林的影响力在现代文化中随处可见。从史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格到吉尔莫·德尔·托罗，从库里·巴克（Curry Barker，见其2026年恐怖片热门作品《执念》）到瑞安·库格勒（Ryan Coogler，《罪人》），无数当代的电视、电影和文学创作者都欠他一份情。系列剧集《黑镜》的创作者查理·布鲁克（Charlie Brooker）曾谈到，他从瑟林对类型片手段的运用以及这些手段赋予瑟林的表达自由中学习到了什么。“如果他没有那块让河流绕行的岩石，”布鲁克告诉我，

“这些故事现在还会如此引起共鸣吗？还是说我们只能在关于电视历史的学术书籍中读到它们？”布鲁克接着指出：“正因为他被迫进入隐喻的世界，这反而赋予了他一种超能力。”

瑟林的叙事超能力源于一种想要找回对人类失落之眷恋的渴望——这种努力在今天或许能给我们带来启示。在第二次世界大战太平洋战场的伞兵服役期间，少年时期的瑟林目睹了人们在惨烈且往往毫无意义的情况下死去。在20, 岁时，他亲眼看到一名好友在面前被从飞机上掉下的补给箱——竟然是这种东西——斩首，而他自己不久后也险些丧命。

这些经历让他深受创伤，并对他同类能够堕落到何种深度感到绝望。这也迫使瑟林去思考为什么人们如此频繁地做出糟糕的选择，以及他们未来是否还有变得更好的希望，这一主题贯穿了他的电视剧创作。在《迷离空间》（The Twilight Zone）中，角色们经常获得一次神奇的第二次机会——而那些无法改变的人通常会遭遇超自然形式的因果报应。

尽管名声显赫且广受赞誉——且具有令人不安的预见性——但瑟林在职业生涯的大部分时间里都与自我怀疑作斗争。在1975年因心脏病去世（享年50岁）之前的几年里，他在一次采访中暗示他的成就很快会被遗忘。

“这些年来我写过一些清晰、相当聪明的东西，但没有一样能经得起时间的考验，”他在1972年说道。“好的写作，真正好的写作——就像葡萄酒一样——必须随岁月而陈酿，而我的作品只是暂时合格。”

瑟林不仅低估了自己的影响力，而且未能预见到他所采用的策略将成为处理危机时代最成功的方式。如果接受那次采访的瑟林能像他笔下的某些角色一样穿越到未来，他可能会沮丧地发现，他所写的许多问题在几十年后依然没有解决。但他也将看到，描述其作品遗产的最佳方式并非“暂时合格”，而是他作为《迷离空间》主持人反复诵读的另一句话：“如无穷般永恒”。

艾伦·塞平沃尔（ALAN SEPINWALL）是一位电视评论员，最近为《滚石》杂志撰稿，并著有即将出版的《瑟林：与电视首位远见者共赴迷离空间之旅》。

以色列在精疲力竭中迎来大选

图瓦尔，

奥菲尔·伯曼 为《纽约时报》 占据私人生活的每一小时。对于许多以色列人来说，这个承诺已经破灭：他们无法停止关注。

然而，不关注的自由是有极限的。以色列人可能有权获得短暂的分心，但无权对政府以他们的名义所做之事一无所知。在加沙，以色列军队杀害了数万名巴勒斯坦人，造成更多人受伤，并导致大部分人口流离失所。在约旦河西岸，以色列军队杀害并伤害巴勒斯坦人，袭击并拆除房屋，关闭道路，并使日常生活处于不断变化的检查站和许可证制度之下。武装定居者袭击巴勒斯坦人，焚烧其财产，将社区驱逐出其土地，而士兵们多次袖手旁观，有时甚至参与暴力活动。

内塔尼亚胡长期以来将自己塑造为国家的守望者。他曾表示，其他人低估了危险，而他能及时发现。他在 2014 年于雅德瓦舍姆（Yad Vashem）发表的一篇演讲，浓缩了他数十年来一直主张的观点。在警告伊朗核计划时，他询问为何大屠杀之前的领导人们未能“及时发现危险”。他说，警告信号一直很明显，但现实被“笼罩在幻象的泡沫中”。当时以及此后的暗示是，以色列人可以信任他去洞察他人所不能见之物。

在 6, 2023, 10月之夜，内塔尼亚胡在熟睡。现代国家的构建是为了在领导人睡眠时保持清醒。睡眠本身并非失败之因。但他醒来的时刻以及他本可以采取的行动，仍然是 7. 10月之尚未得到解答的问题。内塔尼亚胡指责安全主管没有唤醒他。他最近表示：“如果他们唤醒了我，一切都会截然不同。”他还声称，安全官员让他继续睡觉，是因为他们担心他会令军队进入警戒状态，从而冒挑衅哈马斯的风险。

在他的叙述中，系统的失败是因为它没有召唤那个唯一能理解危险的人。这是一个惊人的辩护：失败变成了证明其不可或缺的另一个论据。

最近的报道使这一辩护变得复杂。根据以色列报纸《哈雷兹》（Haaretz）的一篇报道，在袭击发生前几天，阿拉伯联合酋长国总统谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿尔纳哈扬曾警告内塔尼亚胡，哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔正在准备一项重大行动。根据该报道，内塔尼亚胡回答称以色列已做好准备，并认为哈马斯打算在约旦河西岸采取行动。高级

以色列公民可以决定他们的政府是否也必须被每小时地监视。

以色列安全官员表示，他们从未被告知过该警告。两名知情人士随后向《纽约时报》证实了该警告，但内塔尼亚胡否认这次对话发生过，并起诉《哈雷兹》诽谤。他还否认了有关埃及官员曾警告以色列及总理关于哈马斯计划的报道。

内塔尼亚胡在选举中的主要竞争对手、前以色列国防军总参谋长加迪·艾森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）用五个字回答了关于未被唤醒的指责：“是谁没唤醒谁？”

这种交锋有掩盖更大失败的风险。以色列的安全机构一直在监视，但仍然未能理解他们所看到的内容。以色列情报部门在一年多前就获得了哈马斯的详细入侵计划，随后还观察到该计划的部分演习。更深层的错误在于战略。多年来，内塔尼亚胡政府将哈马斯在加沙的统治视为可控的，允许卡塔尔的资金帮助维持其统治，并认为哈马斯与巴勒斯坦权力机构之间的竞争在战略上有用。幻象的泡沫同样属于他。无论多少监视，都无法弥补一个无法验证其假设、修正战略并根据已知信息采取行动的政府。

内塔尼亚胡先生所引用的许多危险确实存在。伊朗确实在寻求核能力；真主党确实建立了庞大的导弹库；哈马斯也从未是一个无害的治理机构。但真实的危险仍可被转化为政治上的助力。这种逻辑甚至在10月 7, 之后依然存在。那场大屠杀粉碎了内塔尼亚胡先生的核心承诺——即只有他能保证以色列人的安全，然而这场灾难本身却成了他不能离职的理由。战争推迟了调查。紧急状态使得内塔尼亚胡先生应该辞职的想法显得不负责任。选举可以等待，问责可以稍后。

甚至关于谁将调查10月 7, 袭击以及如何调查的问题，也成了以色列人必须关注的事情。政府一直抵制成立国家调查委员会。在赎罪日战争之后，阿格拉纳特委员会在其中期调查结果中在很大程度上免除了总理戈尔达·梅尔的责任；她在10天后辞职。

1948年的紧急状态比内塔尼亚胡先生更久远，且将比他更长久。没有任何一场选举能结束由以色列所面临的危险而强加的警觉。但其公民可以决定，他们的政府是否也必须被每小时地监视。

10月 28, 的早晨，无论结果如何，以色列人在喝咖啡前都会先拿起电话。产生的新政府必须赢得在一段时间内可以被忽视几小时的权利。

约纳坦·图瓦尔（YONATAN TOUVAL）是一位外交政策分析师和作家。

胃肠道警示信号

LAURA COUTINHO

专家列举应促使患者就医的症状

作者：CAROLINE HOPKINS LEGASPI

有时，一阵腹泻可能仅仅是由紧张或 24 小时胃肠感冒引起的。持续的胀气和腹胀可能是由近期的一次长途飞行诱发的。

但类似的症状也可能代表更严重的问题。对于从口腔延伸到大肠末端的长管——胃肠道来说，判断起来可能很困难。我们请专家分享了一些他们绝不希望患者忽视的警示信号。

马桶中的血迹

范德堡-英格拉姆癌症中心（Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center）医学教授凯西·恩格（Cathy Eng）博士表示，当人们在粪便中或粪便表面看到血迹时，经常会选择忽视，因为他们认为那是痔疮引起的。

恩格博士说，痔疮是肿胀且发炎的静脉，当受到刺激或压力时，可能会在卫生纸上出现鲜红色的血液，或在马桶盆中、粪便表面出现血滴。但通常无法通过外观来判断血液是来自痔疮还是更严重的问题。

韦克森林大学医学院（Wake Forest University School of Medicine）胃肠病专家兼医学教授巴哈·莫希里（Baha Moshiree）博士表示，结直肠癌、克罗恩病、憩室炎，甚至某些胃肠感冒也会导致粪便中或表面出现血迹。

莫希里博士指出，如果粪便呈现黑色、柏油状或深栗色，可能是胃部或上消化道出血的迹象，原因可能是胃溃疡、胃癌、食管癌或其他疾病。

恩格博士表示，粪便中或周围出现任何血迹都值得告知医生。

异常的排便情况

波士顿马萨诸塞州总医院（Mass General Brigham）的胃肠病专家安德鲁·陈（Andrew Chan）博士表示，如果排便的形状、频率或一致性出现意外变化，例如新出现的便秘、腹泻或粪便变细，最好告知医生。

陈博士说，当这些变化在没有明确原因（如饮食改变、药物、压力水平或工作时间变动）的情况下发生时，可能预示着身体出了问题。

恩格博士表示，例如，结肠中生长中的肿瘤会导致便秘或粪便变细。而肠道炎症则可能同时引起便秘和腹泻，通常伴有疼痛、胀气和腹胀。

无法缓解的腹泻

恩格博士表示，如果你的排便在 5 到 7 天内一直处于稀便或水样便状态，尤其是如果你还伴有疼痛、痉挛或食欲变化，那么寻求医疗专业人员的帮助是值得的。

莫希里博士说，由环孢子虫（cyclospora）或贾第鞭毛虫（giardia）等寄生虫，或艰难梭菌（Clostridioides difficile）等细菌引起的肠道感染会导致腹泻、痉挛、疼痛或食欲变化，这些情况可能需要抗生素或其他治疗。

克罗恩病或溃疡性结肠炎等炎症性肠病也会导致慢性腹泻、疼痛、痉挛、胀气和腹胀；乳糜泻（一种食用麸质会导致免疫系统攻击小肠的自身免疫性疾病）也会导致类似症状。

恩格博士表示，在某些情况下，结直肠癌也会导致持续性腹泻。

吞咽困难

莫希里（Moshiree）医生表示，任何反复出现的疼痛、不适或吞咽困难都可能令人担忧。这包括感觉无法将食物从口腔移至喉咙，或感觉食物卡在喉咙里的感觉。

莫希里医生说，如果你经常注意到这些症状——即使它们只持续一瞬间——也请去看医生。她表示，神经或肌肉疾病（如帕金森病或多发性硬化症）可能会导致不适或吞咽困难。而导致喉咙附近阻塞的情况（如喉癌或食管癌）则会使食物难以通过。陈（Chan）医生表示，在严重的情况下，卡住的食物可能会导致窒息，但并不需要达到“那么极端”的程度才值得告知医生。

让你惊醒的症状

莫希里医生表示，让你惊醒的腹泻、腹痛、绞痛、恶心或其他肠道症状应该引起警觉。严重的疾病如

克罗恩病或结直肠癌可能会导致这些令人不快且在夜间惊醒的情况。她还表示，胃病毒或食物中毒也可能让你猛然惊醒。

莫希里医生说，较不紧急的肠道状况（如肠易激综合征或普通的消化不良）不太可能干扰你的睡眠，因为它们的症状更有可能在清醒时出现。

英（Eng）医生还提醒，如果你经常出现与绝经无关的盗汗，请务必告知医生。盗汗可能是多种癌症的症状，包括与胃肠道相关的癌症，如结直肠癌和胰腺癌。

莫希里医生表示，作为一条通用原则，在任何时间范围内，体重不明原因减轻超过 10% 都值得告知医生。可能导致意外体重减轻的情况包括胃肠道癌症、炎症性肠病、肠梗阻以及胃轻瘫（一种导致胃排空过慢的疾病）。

总结

专家们表示，如果你不确定某个症状是否令人担忧，尤其是如果该症状在几天到几周内没有缓解，那么咨询医生是个好主意。

英医生说，当地诊所的全科医生，甚至妇科医生，都可以是很好的首诊选择。如果需要，该医生随后可以将你转诊给专家，例如胃肠病专家。

循环奔跑，直到最后一人

上方图（从左起）：上个月在印第安纳州举行的“烈焰草原”（Prairie on Fire）后院超级马拉松赛上的苏珊娜·戴森（Susannah Dyson）；以及比赛起跑线上的跑者们。 摄影：LEE KLAFCZYNSKI 为《纽约时报》拍摄

后院超级马拉松涉及重复跑同一圈，有时会持续数日

作者：CHRIS COHEN

51岁时，苏珊娜·戴森开始更加关注自己的健康。她作为一名电气工程师的工作占据了她的全部生活，于是她决定抽出时间来锻炼。

她开始跑步，多年来完成了许多著名的马拉松赛。随后，她参加了超级马拉松，即距离超过26.2英里（42公里）的比赛。

上个月的一个周六，65岁的她跑出了人生最远距离。在印第安纳波利斯市郊举行的“烈焰草原”后院超级马拉松赛中，她在16小时内跑了超过66英里。

她的配速比平时参加的比赛慢得多，但这并不重要。在后院超级马拉松中，跑者必须在每小时内完成一次同样的4.167英里循环跑。如果提前完成，他们可以休息。如果未能完成一圈，则被淘汰。最后一名坚持下来的跑者获胜。

这类比赛通常持续超过100英里，跨越多个昼夜。去年在澳大利亚创下的纪录接近500英里。

尽管形式残酷，但后院超级马拉松正蓬勃发展。过去一年中，此类比赛至少举办了500场，而未来一年将有超过700场。这些比赛出现在美国各地的停车场和综合用途步道上，以及其他约80个国家。

今年的“烈焰草原”赛由数百名跑者参加，其中大多数是当地人。他们邀请亲友前来支持，搭建起带有椅子和行军床的帐篷，用于在圈与圈之间休息，然后一直跑，直到精神或身体崩溃。

“这是一种很棒的成就感，”戴森女士在跑完约29英里休息时说道。她笑着补充道：“我明天肯定会感觉糟糕透顶。”

第一场后院超级马拉松由加里·“拉撒路湖”·坎特雷尔（Gary “Lazarus Lake” Cantrell）组织。他最著名的作品是“巴克利马拉松”（Barkley Marathons），这是一场古怪的100多英里赛事，自1995年以来仅有20名跑者完赛。

2011年，坎特雷尔先生开发了后院超级马拉松，因为赛道可以安置在他140英亩（56公顷）的农场里。第一年只是随兴而为。看到近期的增长，他说，“你只能惊讶地摇头，这完全出乎意料。”

他说，只有在回顾时，他才能明白为什么后院模式具有广泛的吸引力。这种内置的配速比许多马拉松的截断时间要慢，从而诱发出意想不到的表现：许多跑者对自己能坚持这么久感到惊讶。

而且，与传统比赛中竞争者分散且气喘吁吁无法交谈不同，每小时一次的重置增加了社交成分。

与那些最著名的超级马拉松相比，这类比赛的组织相对简单。那些著名赛事往往穿过风景优美但物流挑战巨大的地貌，例如落基山脉。

这种比赛形式的简单性和紧凑性使其在疫情期间大受欢迎。“烈焰草原”的赛事组织者TJ·戴利（TJ Dailey）在决定举办后院超级马拉松之前，一直在筹备社交距离虚拟赛。2022年的首届赛事有15名参赛者。今年，228名跑者至少完成了一圈，117人跑了超过50英里。

在今年比赛第一晚黎明前几个小时，望着微微发光的帐篷之城，戴利先生将这次活动比作“火人节”（Burning Man）。就像每年夏天在内华达州沙漠中升起的那个无政府主义临时城市一样，后院超级马拉松也是一个为寻求脱离日常生活、体验极致体验的人们而设立的弹出式社区。

“烈焰草原”在挪威世界杯国家队维京战歌的变体版本中拉开帷幕，但比赛开始时的速度几乎等同于步行。

大多数跑者采用某种形式的“跑走结合法”，将慢跑与步行休息相结合，但具体配速取决于个人偏好。一些参赛者旨在尽可能少地消耗能量，几乎用满在赛道上的整个小时。另一些人则会跑得快一点，以换取更多在椅子上休息的时间或几分钟的睡眠。

在被称为“码”（yards）的每圈 4.167 英里赛道之间，参赛者们努力维持身体机能。他们饮用最新的高碳水化合物运动饮料，食用速食土豆泥和拉面等慰藉食物。他们进行拉伸和按摩，并试图辨别脚踝上的剧痛仅仅是水泡还是更严重的问题。

“在超马圈，把自己逼得太狠不幸地非常普遍，”30 岁的卡莉·特鲁洛克-奎恩（Carly Trulock-Quinn）说道，在疼痛开始影响步幅后，她在远未达到 100 英里目标时退赛了。

48 岁的马杰尔·威尔斯（Majel Wells）表示，为了时刻感知自己的身体状态，她学会了在很大程度上避免使用咖啡因、非处方止痛药和音乐等常见辅助手段。

她很享受让那些乍一看可能会低估她的人感到惊讶。

“我比年轻时更了解自己，”她说，“我变得更强了，因为我更愿意忍受不适。”

她跑了 129.1 英里，距离超过了除 7 名跑者之外的所有人，并且是最后一名坚持下来的女性。

到第二次日落，在 150 英里标志处，参赛人数已缩减至 5 人。而在 9 月 14 日凌晨 2 点前，42 岁的马修·桑德林（Matthew Sandlin）独自完成了最后一“码”，在跑完 179.1 英里后成为冠军。

他表示，挑战身体极限成了他专注信仰的一种方式，并能挖掘出自己在日常生活中通常不扮演角色的一面。

“我有某种程度的坚毅——或者说固执，”他说，“在朝九晚五的工作环境中，我无法真正展现这一点。”

在后院超马赛中，获胜者是唯一一个仍在思考自己极限在哪里的人——只有当他们成为最后一名幸存跑者时，才会完成最后一圈。

“没什么感觉疼，”桑德林先生说，“我准备好跑感觉像永远一样久。”

30种植物并非神奇数字，但值得尝试

健康问答

作者：爱丽丝·卡拉汉 (ALICE CALLAHAN)

我听说为了健康，每周应该至少食用30种不同的植物性食物。这是真的吗？

亚特兰大的外科运动训练师凯瑟琳·史密斯（Kathryn Smith，26岁）第一次在播客中听到每周食用30种不同植物可以改善健康时，她很喜欢这种拥有具体目标的想法。

她开始制作由燕麦、坚果和种子组成的自制燕麦片；由辣椒、黄瓜、牛油果和香草组成的萨尔萨酱；以及由玉米、番茄和芒果组成的豆类沙拉。

每周食用30种（或更多）植物的想法在健康领域引起了轰动。这催生了追踪植物摄入量的应用程序，以及宣传每颗胶囊或每勺粉末含有30种或更多植物的补充剂。数以千计的社交媒体帖子宣称其益处包括降低炎症、改善心脏健康、增加能量、增强免疫系统以及延长寿命。

一些影响力人物、播客主和医生表示，每周食用30种植物将使你的肠道微生物群多样化，从而改善健康。证据是否与这种热潮相符？我们咨询了专家。

加州斯坦福大学医学院微生物学和免疫学教授贾斯汀·索嫩堡（Justin Sonnenburg）表示，每周食用30种不同植物是一个朗朗上口的概念。但他认为，没有强有力的证据表明30种植物是一个“神奇的阈值”。

这一概念起源于2018年的一项分析，研究人员对比了生活在美国和英国的85名成年人的粪便样本。大约一半的成年人表示他们通常每周食用10种或更少的独特植物；其余的人则表示他们食用30种或更多。领导该研究的加州大学圣迭戈分校微生物组科学家罗布·奈特（Rob Knight）表示，后一组人的肠道微生物群多样性显著更高。

奈特博士说，食用多种植物能够促进微生物组多样化是有道理的。肠道微生物主要由纤维滋养，因此从理论上讲，食用不同类型的纤维会促进不同种类微生物的生长。研究人员发现，肠道微生物组多样性较低通常与健康状况较差相关。

食用更广泛的植物种类可能有助于人们摄入更多纤维。

然而，加拿大阿尔伯塔大学的营养研究员安妮莎·阿梅特（Anissa Armet）表示，该研究存在局限性。样本量较小，且依赖于参与者对自己通常食用多少种植物的估算。她补充说，该研究仅显示了食用更多植物与微生物组多样性之间的相关性，而非证明了因果关系。

当奈特博士及其同事使用超过3,000名成年人的数据进行更大规模的分析时，他们发现每周食用11到20种植物所关联的微生物组多样性与食用30种植物相似。不过，该分析尚未经过同行评审或发表。

阿梅特博士说，此后有几项有限的研究测试了30种植物目标的变体。在2025年一项涉及25名慢性肾脏病成年人的澳大利亚试验中，研究人员发现，每周食用30种或更多植物（与15种或更少相比）会导致便秘减轻，且肠道健康指标更理想。而在7月发表的一项涉及约400名成年人的试验中，研究人员发现，与服用益生菌补充剂或由面包丁制成的安慰剂的参与者相比，服用“30种植物”补充剂六周的人报告便秘减轻，但微生物组多样性没有增加。

阿梅特博士表示，由于两项研究中的参与者在追求30种植物目标的过程中都增加了纤维摄入量，因此研究人员无法确定这种改善是归功于植物种类的增加、额外的纤维，还是两者的结合。

她补充说，与一些网络传闻相反，没有证据表明每周30种植物是一个最佳数量。

尽管如此，索嫩堡博士表示，研究普遍支持食用多种植物性食物的益处，只是并不支持 30 种植物这个目标。他补充说，人们的微生物组复杂且具有独特性：不存在一劳永逸的通用建议。

纽约大学营养学兼职教授、营养师卢尔德·卡斯特罗表示，如果你喜欢每周食用 30 种植物这种挑战，那就去做吧。她说，这可能有助于你摄入更多的纤维和更多样化的食物，从而对健康产生益处。只要不要被这个目标搞得压力过大即可。

在阿尔伯塔省的阿梅特博士表示，一个更基于证据的目标应该是从多种植物性食物中摄入建议的纤维量——根据年龄和性别而定，每天 21 到 38 克。

索嫩堡博士还建议放弃补充剂。“天然完整食物更好。”

NFL在方便时才要求问责

评论

EZRA SHAW / GETTY IMAGES

CHRIS SZAGOLA / ASSOCIATED PRESS STEVE LUCIANO / ASSOCIATED PRESS

作者：JOURDAN RODRIGUE THE ATHLETIC

当我看到一段视频，内容是国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）的一名边线裁判杰夫·西曼（Jeff Seeman）在周日的比赛中，似乎在向亚利桑那红雀队的近端锋特雷·麦布莱德（Trey McBride）发出愤怒的脏话时，我的第一反应是震惊。

球员和教练经常与裁判争论——有些教练甚至以此闻名。教练和球员可能会根据裁判的裁量被标记违规或受到其他处罚。我们见过多少次这样的片段：一名教练对着边线裁判大吼大叫，耳机歪在一边，唾沫横飞，而裁判则面无表情地将黄旗抛向空中？

然而，看到裁判辱骂球员——这种情况几乎从未发生。直到这件事似乎真的发生了。

西曼已被禁赛两场。另一名裁判艾德里安·希尔（Adrian Hill）在周日维京人队对阵海豚队的另一起事件后被禁赛一场，在这次事件中，明尼苏达队的线卫埃里克·威尔逊（Eric Wilson）在一次进攻结束后似乎不小心撞到了希尔。看起来威尔逊试图扶起希尔，而希尔则做出了激烈的反应。

一名因未获公开谈论此事授权而要求匿名的联盟消息人士明确指出，这两次禁赛均不发放薪水。联盟表示，两次禁赛都是因为“一次不专业的行为”，这一点许多人都会认同。

当然，NFL在处理此事上的迅速行动值得肯定。但联盟还能怎么做？视频创造了问责。你知道的，就是那种联盟在涉及裁判判罚甚至达阵庆祝时，确保球员必须面对的东西。

在看到麦布莱德和西曼的视频后，我的第二个想法是：如果没有摄像机记录下这一幕会怎样？西曼还会被追究责任吗？或者这是否会变成另一个在球员、教练和裁判之间口口相传的故事？

当球员和教练公开批评裁判时，会被联盟处以罚款。如果一个组织不同意或希望联盟就某些判罚给出明确解释，必须提交审核并等待回复。这是唯一的行动途径，而且几乎不能起到安抚作用。这甚至可能让情况变得更糟，比如上周的一个显著案例：洛杉矶公羊队教练肖恩·麦凯（Sean McVay）表示，联盟告诉他，经过审核，在输给丹佛野马队的一场比赛中，一个具有重大影响的争议性干扰接球判罚实际上是

上个月，国家橄榄球联盟对旧金山49人队的后卫凯尔·朱斯齐克（Kyle Juszczyk）处以罚款，因为他通过假装喝饮料的方式庆祝（见上图）。本周，联盟表示他的庆祝行为将不再被视为违规。右侧的杰夫·西曼因上周辱骂球员而被禁赛。最右侧的洛杉矶公羊队教练肖恩·麦凯被告知一次争议判罚是错误的。

错误的。麦凯是在回答记者提出的问题。

联盟自己的回应是什么？分享一份备忘录，提醒各俱乐部，球队与裁判之间的此类对话应保持机密。

换句话说，“我们可能搞错了，但你敢说出去试试。”如果麦布莱德以敌对方式与裁判接触（无论是诱发事件还是做出回应），他可能会成为那个在比赛中或赛后受到联盟处罚的人。

在明尼苏达，威尔逊能做的就是尝试（但失败了）去解释与希尔碰撞的无心之举，然后走开。进入下一次进攻。这就是NFL设计的系统在运作——由NFL设计。

裁判工作是一项极其困难且处于残酷公众审视下的兼职职业。从事这项工作的人们真正热爱它。否则，他们为什么要每周承受体育场内至少一半观众的愤怒？这是一门人类的工艺，因此不可避免地存在缺陷。所以我确实认为，必须设立一些界限，以保护裁判免受球迷和组织的无谓批评；但在这种情况下，球员和教练则成了吃亏的一方，因为他们不能表达任何异议。

这就是联盟建立的失衡体系：裁判负责执法比赛，球员和教练不喜欢某些判罚但不能直言或改变判罚，而 NFL 则为了利润做出决定，让每个人的工作都变得更艰难。

上个月，联盟对旧金山 49 人队的后卫凯尔·朱斯齐克（Kyle Juszczyk）、印第安纳波利斯小马队的后卫马特·冈萨尔维斯（Matt Goncalves）、达拉斯牛仔队的近端锋杰克·弗格森（Jake Ferguson）以及丹佛野马队的后卫奎因·迈纳兹（Quinn Meinerz）等人的庆祝行为处以罚款。NFL 的行为准则是由 与 球员协会共同协商确定的，但这些所谓的违规行为之性质显得格外突兀。

迈纳兹表示，他被罚款是因为他模仿了掷骰子的动作，而联盟将其定义为非法庆祝。

如果当时没有摄像机记录下这一幕会怎样？

朱斯齐克和冈萨尔维斯在庆祝时都假装在喝饮料。朱斯齐克的绰号是“果汁”（Juice），长期以来他一直通过假装喝一个想象中的果汁盒来庆祝，他表示联盟告诉他，他是在模仿喝啤酒——对此他予以否认。冈萨尔维斯没有否认他假装喝的饮料性质，但他恰如其分地指出， 本身就是百威轻啤（Bud Light）的商业合作伙伴。

使用诸如“冒犯性演示”之类的词汇来给某些手势分类。尽管它从啤酒合作伙伴关系中获利，尽管它与多家体育博彩公司签署了商业协议，且每家公司都可以自称是“ 官方博彩合作伙伴”。

周三，联盟发布声明称，朱斯齐克的庆祝行为将不再被视为违规。但联盟不希望其球员暗示任何涉及啤酒或赌博的内容。它想要通过哑剧表演呈现一场完美的比赛，与此同时，它却与那些不完美的实体同床共枕。它不希望裁判受到球员或教练的批评，即便它直接与赌博行业关联，而后者给他们所有人带来了比以往任何时候都更大的公众压力。

周日，那台边线摄像机让每个人目睹了一个微小的不公正时刻：一名裁判在认为没人看时所做的事情，而涉及其中的球员却不被允许对此进行投诉。

但这仅仅是对一个更大运作体系的提醒，这个体系超越了裁判和罚款，并最终扩展到 的每一个角落。这个体系经常声称想要与球员合作，但当它给球员设定一套与其自身不同的标准，并实际上与那些将球员简化为产品的实体合作时，它永远无法真正实现这一点。

是否会愿意将那台摄像机对准自己？它是否会在意自己可能会看到什么？

纵横字谜 / 编辑：Will Shortz

横向 1 人类 10 “超级干”啤酒酿造商 15 具有三维特性的视觉辅助工具 16 不受欢迎的人 17 在法律上，通过一个更强有力的论点 18 仰望的星辰 19 不愤怒 20 柔软的投掷物 21 咯咯笑的食肉动物 25 按流量计算，仅次于亚马逊河和刚果河的世界第三大河流 27 吝啬鬼（非正式用法） 30 裂缝 31 像某条动脉一样 32 芒果残余 33 例如天文学家第谷·布拉赫 34 负责筛查的机构 35 葡萄酒残余 36 _Kar-wai，享誉全球的香港导演，执导了1994年的《重庆森林》

37 奔跑速度可达 35 英里 / 小时的猎犬 39 这是我的，全是我的！ 40 自 1987 年起播出的 NPR 节目 41 例如两张 A 43 一种卷轴 / 卷饼 47 舒适的 50 “我 _ 吃一颗桃子吗？”：T.S. 艾略特 51 年度记录？ 52 借鉴他人的生活 55 把手 / 处理 56 西班牙足球甲级联赛（La Liga）中备受期待的宿敌之战 57 联邦快递（FedEx）标志中的隐藏元素 58 极其困难且最终徒劳的

纵向 1 沉沉睡去 2 Morgan _，亚瑟王故事中的女巫 3 没有陪伴 4 奥德修斯的船员们在讨论什么？ 5 麻将组合 6 负责筛查的机构

谜题设计：NAM JIN YOON

7 “真的吗？！” 8 以某种方式清零 9 用于绘制旋转对称图形的设备 10 用于检查的账户？ 11 紧凑的，也许 12 “我的错” 13 二战期间的一些海军飞机 14 要求从 2025 年起披露加密资产的机构 21 共同创立老鹰队的 Glenn 23 大量的地块 24 百老汇剧目的缩写 26 Psy-____

28 口语中的濒临失败 29 肥沃之地 31 瑞士军刀组件 32 研究某种文化者的辅助工具 33 定期带最好的朋友出去的人？ 35 说道“塔金总督！我早该想到你会牵着维达的皮带。当我被带上船时，我就认出了你那令人作呕的臭味”的公主 36 像某些面条和马丁尼一样

37 例如人身保护令（Habeas corpus） 38 计分板上的板球“绿衣军团” 40 休眠的 42 苏格拉底的学生 44 《裸体舞曲》（Gymnopédies）的作曲家 45 撰写《飞行恐惧症》的 Jong 46 侦察之旅 48 一本关于他胡须的荒诞幽默书的艺术家 49 《指环王》中索伦的士兵 51 团队 53 体操运动员 Raisman 54 使衰弱

在 http: / nytimes.com / games 在线玩我们所有的游戏，以及 Wordle、Spelling Bee、纵横字谜等 10,000 多个往期谜题。关于谜题的讨论，请访问 http: / nytimes.com / wordplay。

威尼斯双年展中可能出现的内容

波士顿艺术评论

左图为罗伯特·拉扎里尼（Robert Lazzarini）的壁挂作品《美国国旗》（2022），该作品是他与策展人约翰·拉文纳尔（John Ravenal）为威尼斯美国馆提交的提案之一。上方为《警察路障》（2019），下方为《旋转电话》（2000）。最终，美国国务院通过近期成立的美国艺术保护协会（American Art Conservancy）委任了竞争者。

纽约时报摄影师 SOPHIE PARK 拍摄 波士顿展览中，拉扎里尼的装置作品《讲台》以及墙上其《瓦尔德泽米勒地图》木刻画的展厅视图。

一场新展揭示了罗伯特·拉扎里尼对美国馆的构想

作者：KIM CÓRDOVA

艺术家罗伯特·拉扎里尼在马萨诸塞艺术与设计学院（Massachusetts College of Art and Design）旗下的 MassArt 艺术博物馆举办的展览“界限”（Metes and Bounds）中，真正的吸引力在于三件作品。这些作品源自拉扎里尼今年为威尼斯双年展美国馆提交但最终被否决的提案，该提案原计划与美国建国250周年相契合。

墙上的文字解释道，拉扎里尼的雕塑重新构思了代表美国身份的仪式性及熟悉物件——其中包括一部旋转电话、一个警察路障、一个18世纪的讲台，以及一面用于覆盖阵亡军人棺材的美国国旗——“通过这些物件，美国的‘权力’变得具体化”。

由约翰·拉文纳尔策划的九件展出作品错综复杂且扭曲，被变形为挑战感知的不可能形状。每件作品都采用了与参考原物相同的材料，将其简化为纯粹的形态，使其融化或歪斜地断裂，彻底抹除了任何功能性的可能。

上方是一件2011年的雕塑，描绘了一个门被炸飞的保险箱，看起来像被砸成了一种梯形。下方为《禁止入内标志》，最下方为《死胡同标志》，两者均创作于2012年。

此次展览与双年展的联系，以及将指向殖民时期和世纪中叶美国的扭曲物件定位为“颠覆性”的做法，表明其对美国及其作为战后全球秩序执行者角色的理解——而那个秩序已不复存在。

当拉文纳尔和拉扎里尼将他们的提案命名为“历史创造者”（History Maker）时，他们绝没有想到这本身将成为历史。两人曾处于美国馆委任竞争者的名单顶端——在过去，这被认为是定义职业生涯的荣誉——尽管他们的合同从未最终敲定。一个混乱且政治化的过程在政府停摆的紧迫时间压力下展开。当展览赞助方南佛罗里达大学退出后，导致了该提案的崩溃。

美国国务院决定通过近期成立的非营利组织美国艺术保护协会，将美国馆授予阿尔玛·艾伦（Alma Allen）和策展人杰弗里·乌斯利普（Jeffrey Uslip）。于是，“历史创造者”以“被撤销的展馆”之名在历史上留名。

在一次关于“界限”（该术语是指一种用于划分殖民地定居点的土地测量系统）的采访中，拉文纳尔表示，这“不是美国馆的展览，也不是‘历史创造者’”。然而，参观者首先遇到的前三件作品正是来自那个拟议中的展馆。举办此次展览的邀请源于博物馆馆长丽莎·董（Lisa Tung）与拉文纳尔之间的一次对话。董表示：“一次工作室访问引发了关于将该项目作品与罗伯特早期作品共同展出的讨论。”

为了实现该项目，博物馆从被否决的提案中委托制作了两件作品：一套由12幅旋转木刻版画组成，对应1507年瓦尔德泽米勒地图（被认为是第一幅描绘并标注了独立陆地“美洲”的地图）的12张图页；以及一个木制的17世纪讲台变体，类似于殖民时期集会场所所使用的那种。一件液化美国国旗的壁挂织物雕塑本应是威尼斯展出的四件作品之一。

其他作品则来自拉扎里尼（Lazzarini）的工作室。它们大致分为两类扭曲：熔融状和强迫透视。在熔融类作品中，一个纽约市警察路障像卡通面条一样拉伸扭曲，与讲台形成对话。在附近的一面墙上，两块融化的街道标志分别写着“死胡同”和“私有财产，禁止入内”，且都布满了弹孔。

展厅后方展出的是通过强迫透视修改的物体。其中包括一部模仿贝尔系统（Bell Systems）生产的西电500系列（Western Electric 500-series）的旋转拨号电话；一个门被炸开的灰色金属保险箱；以及一把能让人联想到权威人物在场的机构木椅。在白色墙壁和荧光灯的强烈照射下，这些雕塑因其接近光学错觉的特性而几乎让人产生偏头痛。拉扎里尼表示，这种特性“使物体脱离了原有的基准，并将其保持在那种未解决的状态”。

61岁的拉扎里尼在纽约视觉艺术学院获得了美术学士学位。他的作品曾参加过MoMA PS1和台北市立美术馆的群展，以及2002年的惠特尼双年展。67岁的拉文纳尔（Ravenal）曾任马萨诸塞州林肯市de-Cordova雕塑公园及博物馆的馆长。自2020年起，他一直担任独立策展人。拉文纳尔此前曾在2003年于弗吉尼亚美术馆策划过拉扎里尼的个展。

拉文纳尔表示，与他们为展馆提交的提案相比，他们对“界限与范围”（Metes and Bounds）的构想更多地关注于“潜藏在社会之下的抽象权威状态”，这种状态“即使在非常简单的日常物品中也会显现”。

但这场展览似乎陷入了一种对过去的白炽灯式记忆中。在美洲即将迎来建国250周年的年份里，支撑日益增强的权威状态的扭曲与错觉，或许是涵盖从经济到文化及地缘政治等所有领域的元叙事。但将日常物品的扭曲夸大，以此作为现代监控国家的隐喻，并不能触及美国权力转移（例如由科技和人工智能公司驱动）所带来的价值观转变。此外，这些作品所传达的怀旧情绪和暴力威胁，存在着反而维护其所批判的权威主义的风险。

目前，拉扎里尼和拉文纳尔正在制定计划，分批制作“历史制造者”（History Maker），直到他们能在某个地方展出完整作品。

杰夫·昆斯出售价值$100 million的私人收藏

巴勃罗·毕加索遗产委员会 / 艺术家权利协会 (ARS)，纽约；经由佳士得图像有限公司。2026 CINDY ORD / 盖蒂图片社

该收藏包括荷兰黄金时代艺术品以及毕加索和马奈的作品

作者：ZACHARY SMALL

一批涵盖500年历史的珍贵艺术品将于11月出售，佳士得拍卖行仅将其描述为来自一位“卓越的私人收藏家”。

这个描述相当含蓄。据两名了解交易细节但未获授权正式发言的拍卖专家透露，卖家可以说是在世最著名的艺术家——杰夫·昆斯（Jeff Koons）。此次出售将成为纽约11月重点拍卖会的一部分。

在近几十年里，现年71, 岁的昆斯在纽约的联排别墅中积累了一小批艺术收藏。他将出售包括毕加索、马奈以及荷兰黄金时代画家科内利斯·范·哈勒姆（Cornelis van Haarlem）在内的艺术家的九幅画作。据佳士得估计，这批收藏的成交价将超过1亿美元，但佳士得拒绝公开披露委托人身份。

“这是一次视觉盛宴，”佳士得全球总裁亚历克斯·罗特（Alex Rotter）在评价该收藏时表示，“它绝非平庸之作。”

上图为2021年杰夫·昆斯站在其雕塑前。右图为毕加索的《接吻》（Le Baiser），是佳士得此次拍卖的最高价拍品，估价约为4000万美元。

昆斯拒绝置评。 罗特表示，毕加索的《接吻》（1969年）将是最高价拍品，价格区间在$40 million左右。

这件作品是毕加索在生命最后十年探索情侣主题的代表作，当时他笔下交织在一起的情侣形象似乎模糊了激情与暴力之间的界限。

昆斯在自己的职业生涯中也探索过类似的主题。他20世纪90年代初的“天堂制造”（Made in Heaven）系列包含了他本人与匈牙利模特伊洛娜·斯塔勒（Ilona Staller，以Cicciolina之名闻名）的性爱图像。（两人育有一子，并曾短暂结婚。）最近在接受《T Magazine》采访谈到该系列时，他表示：“我试图消除任何形式的愧疚感和羞耻感。”

2008年，昆斯在苏富比拍卖会上以$17.400 万买下这幅毕加索画作，相当于现在的$27.100 万。三年后，他以$10.500 万（经通胀调整后为$15.600 万）购入了同一系列的另一幅毕加索画作。

在2024年接受欧洲电视频道ARTE采访时，昆斯表达了对毕加索晚期作品的痴迷。这位艺术家说：“我深信毕加索在此时期是最慷慨的。他像是一位萨满火炬手，向我们展示我们可以拥有更丰富、更好的生活。”

昆斯仍然是少数几个家喻户晓的在世艺术家之一，但其在市场上的主导地位自2019年佳士得拍卖会达到顶峰以来有所下降，当时他1986年的不锈钢兔子雕塑以$91.100 万成交。独立市场数据库ARTDAI估计，过去十年中，他的艺术品在拍卖会上的财务表现下降了近60%（不包括私人销售）。昆斯近年来还频繁更换画廊，2021年离开大卫·兹维纳（David Zwirner）和高古轩（Gagosian）加入佩斯画廊（Pace Gallery），但在四年后又改变主意重新加入高古轩。

一名接近佳士得交易的人士表示，昆斯出售该收藏的动机是为了将其重新投资于自己的艺术实践。

对于佳士得而言，昆斯收藏的出现无疑是一场及时雨。在今年的秋季拍卖季中，迄今为止最昂贵的艺术收藏流向了其竞争对手苏富比。该公司最近从阿根廷糖业巨头继承人卡洛斯·佩德罗·布拉基尔（Carlos Pedro Blaquier）和内莉·布拉基尔·德·阿里埃塔（Nelly Blaquier de Arrieta）的遗产中获得了12幅画作，估值4.5亿美元，其中包括梵高、塞尚、皮萨罗和其他印象派艺术家的作品。

佳士得已为库恩斯的这些艺术品提供了担保。这场将于11月17日举行的拍卖会主题为“英雄与爱人”。

“英雄”是指一幅创作于1590年的范·哈勒姆画作，描绘了大力神赫拉克勒斯与河神阿刻罗俄斯竞争娶一位公主的神话故事。库恩斯在2008年买下了这件作品，支付了810万美元，这一价格是最高估价的四倍多，相当于今天的1260万美元。佳士得预计该作品在今年秋季的售价约为1200万美元。

库恩斯曾直接评论过范·哈勒姆的作品。2015年，他将这位荷兰风格主义画家的另一幅画作改编成了他的“凝视球”系列绘画。这位当代艺术家在荷兰艺术家对伯利恒屠杀婴孩这一圣经故事的演绎中心，放置了一个巨大的蓝色球体。

库恩斯表示，这个凝视球“代表了宇宙的浩瀚，同时也代表了此时此地的亲密感”。

电影制作人将讽刺与紧迫感融合

华纳兄弟（WARNER BROS.） 左图为亚历杭德罗·G·冈萨雷斯·伊纳里图（Alejandro G. Iñárritu），其新片《挖掘者》（Digger）是一部关于气候变化的讽刺剧。上图为汤姆·克鲁斯（Tom Cruise）在电影中的剧照，该片于上周上映。下图为莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥（Leonardo DiCaprio）在伊纳里图之前的电影《荒野猎人》（The Revenant）中的剧照，该片为迪卡普里奥赢得了奥斯卡奖。

新摄政 / 20世纪福克斯（NEW REGENCY / 20TH CENTURY FOX） 辛娜·纳塞里（SINNA NASSERI）为《纽约时报》拍摄

亚历杭德罗·G·冈萨雷斯·伊纳里图谈拍摄《挖掘者》的起伏与风险

作者：梅莱娜·雷齐克（MELENA RYZIK）

“在我看来，我们将现实与真相混淆了，”电影制作人亚历杭德罗·G·冈萨雷斯·伊纳里图在上周，即其新片《挖掘者》上映前几天说道。

《挖掘者》是一部关于气候变化、企业巨头和宣传的激烈讽刺剧，由汤姆·克鲁斯饰演一名毫无悔意、性格夸张的石油大亨。这部电影没有提供任何简单的答案。无论在概念还是风格上，这部电影都是一次大胆的尝试。

演员的表演极具张力。“一切都是为了吸引注意力，为了获得点赞，为了让人感到不适，为了让人厌烦——这就是我们所生活的文化，”伊纳里图说。

评论大多较为负面，但伊纳里图表示，他能够接受这部电影引起两极分化的评价。“比起平淡的反应，我更倾向于这样，”他在最近的一次视频采访中说道。

这位出生于墨西哥的编剧兼导演现年63岁。他在2015年拍摄完那部充满寒冬气息的奥斯卡获奖剧作《荒野猎人》后产生了拍摄《挖掘者》的想法。这部电影自2017年起一直在酝酿中，期间经历了行业和制作的各种起伏，共有四位共同编剧。“这部电影崩溃了三次；我失去了三年的生命，”伊纳里图说。

他说，他之所以不断回归这部作品，是因为它反映了当今世界某种紧迫的现状。“这部电影并不完美，”他坦言。但“我喜欢冒险。”

他还用带有轻微口音的英语讲述了在北极寻找取景地的情况，为什么选择用元叙事（meta-narrative）来捕捉故事，以及克鲁斯为这部电影带来了什么——在签约之前，克鲁斯曾要求伊纳里图将剧本大声朗读给他听。

“我对他的气场感到震惊，”伊纳里图在谈到克鲁斯时说。他是一个“文字大师”，这一点在一段长独白戏中尤为明显。“现场有300名群众演员，而他们全部被他的表演所掩盖。”

以下是对话的编辑摘录。

这部电影的灵感火花是什么？ 在《荒野猎人》拍摄结束时，我们正忙于寻找一些本应有[积雪]条件的取景地。结果我们在夏天来到了乌斯怀亚（Ushuaia，位于阿根廷，是世界上最南端的城市）追逐冰川。因为我们在这些地方失去了冰川——这在当地历史上从未发生过。所以这就是起点：关于正在发生的变化的这种想法，以及人们告诉我们的事情并不一定反映现实。即使我们的身体能感受到，困惑依然被植入了。

所以这关乎操纵（spin）。这正是极权政府自古以来运作的方式：不要相信你自己的眼睛。这关乎贪婪、权力、不负责任以及责任，以及谁控制了叙事，谁就[决定]了现实应该是怎样的，而不是现实本身是什么。

最初，这个剧本叫作《 blah, blah, blah》（废话连篇）。这部电影在概念上是关于人类拥有的最危险的武器：这个被称为舌头的小器官。语言可以是通往现实的桥梁，但它[也可以]是摧毁现实的武器。

我们认为，一个刻意利用这一点的人物可能会很有趣：非常人性化，非常荒诞，同时令人恐惧——并且希望是幽默的。

讽刺元素是如何演变的？

最初的草稿截然不同。我当时试图在真实场景、真实地点拍摄灾难场面。那非常、非常昂贵——我曾两次随科学家前往北极进行[实地考察]。

而且剧本当时还没准备好。我们当时在竭力发挥想象力，以寻求讽刺效果和评论视角。但在探索过程中，虚构基本上被现实追上了，而现实有时甚至超越了虚构。因为我们在九年前想象的事情开始发生了。

那时，还没有冰架脱离的情况。但突然之间，这件事发生了。格陵兰岛当时还没进入人们的讨论范围；甲烷也没有进入主流媒体的语言体系。而现在，甲烷成了最可怕的怪物之一。疫情爆发了。我们在拍摄期间，洛杉矶发生了火灾，我差点失去了我的家。我们所有人都被一系列事件折磨，这太可怕了。所以我们觉得，等等——不需要再发挥想象了。讽刺已经没有空间了。

因此，基调不再是讽刺。那种感觉几乎就像是在写一部关于未来的纪录片。

你是否曾因为这部电影将引导你走向何方而做噩梦？是的。[气候变化以及世界的现状]，这是一个如此宏大且复杂的问题。它令人不安，让我们陷入瘫痪。

无论好坏，我唯一能看待这件事的方式就是将其置于[电影的]中心，而这些人[角色]则质疑该如何应对。在剧场中，我们可以理解自己，制造一面镜子。这是拉丁美洲的传统，从《堂吉诃德》到[埃尔内斯托]·萨巴托。这也是布莱希特式的戏剧，旨在质疑并引发思考。

我是否成功，取决于人们将看到或感知到什么，但这至少是我尝试开启这一进程的努力。因为我们都在这场戏中。

你是否担心人们无法理解？

我认为这绝对是一部不寻常的电影。这是一部具有挑衅性的电影。对我而言，这就是电影的作用——开启对话。我个人偏好那些尝试以不同方式向我讲述某些事情的电影。有些人希望在叙事中获得更多确定性，这也没问题。这不像冰淇淋那样人人喜爱。所以，坦白说，我们预料到了这一点。

汤姆说他长期以来一直是你的粉丝。你们是怎么认识的？

他非常慷慨。当我拍第一部电影《狗日》（Amores Perros）[2001]时，他在放映[这部电影]，人们说：“汤姆·克鲁斯在推广你的电影。”我说：“哇。”但直到2011年我们才真正见面。

他超级友善——而且他对我的电影中每一个镜头、每一个剪辑点和角度的了解比我还深。

在《鸟人》中，你利用了迈克尔·基顿饰演蝙蝠侠的历史——他被一个戴面具、长翅膀的人物追逐。在选汤姆出演这个角色时，你是否考虑到了观众在理解他时可能会带入的既有印象？

我需要一个——让你无法停止注视的人。我认为他拥有这种力量。他是反英雄。我称之为“可爱的灾难”，因为即使他做了卑劣的事情，人们也很难停止关注他。

这是一个人类的原型。他代表了权力是一种让人上瘾的东西，而他如此害怕失去权力，以至于——[利润]动机将成为我们所有人的问题。我认为这就是目前世界的运行方式。

这部电影让人想起其他反乌托邦故事，如《巴西》和《博士异想天开》。你的参考资料是什么？

我们一直在尝试寻找基调，这非常困难。在排练时，我展示了《他的女友周五》，其中加里·格兰特说话像疯了一样。我被他处理快节奏对话的方式所吸引，那非常有音乐感。因此，[演员们]需要理解，速度并不意味着必须失去潜台词或文字的力量。但这需要练习。

在视觉上，有一位[丹麦]画家，维尔海姆·哈默舍伊（Vilhelm Hammershoi）——他使用的所有色调都非常低饱和，仅用极少数的色彩元素，营造出一种梦幻般的感觉。

这部电影的世界观相当阴暗。这代表了您自己的看法吗？您是否抱有希望？

这部电影是一部灾难片，但这场灾难就是我们自己。世界如此美丽，如此不可思议。这里有如此丰富的资源，生态系统的平衡简直美得惊人。如果我们能聚集在同一个房间里，处于同一个现实之中，并理解我们在叙事中所处的位置，我认为是有希望的。

芭芭拉·金索尔弗回归，脑海中尽是情欲

KRISTINA TZEKOVA

书评

《帕蒂塔》（Partita） 作者：芭芭拉·金索尔弗（Barbara Kingsolver）。Harper出版社。338 pp. $32.

作者：杰夫·吉尔斯（JEFF GILES）

对于一位坚定的人文主义者来说，芭芭拉·金索尔弗给她的角色们带来了某些真正的噩梦——即便是在那些她似乎最喜爱的人身上。如果且当她给予他们平静与自我认知作为奖赏时，那种解脱感会让读者忍不住想要鼓掌，就像在一次颠簸的飞行中，飞行员刚刚将飞机安全降落时的乘客一样。

金索尔弗明白，生活可以是一个精明的反派。除了她数十年的环保主义以及对共情和道德正义的呼吁，她持久的主题是：我们可以从不可生存的境地中幸存下来，而这很幸运，因为总有人或某些东西在附近潜伏，等着让我们证明这一点。

在金索尔弗的新小说《帕蒂塔》中，出生于阿巴拉契亚地区的叙述者利维亚·凯布尔（Livia Cable）机智、坚韧，且是一个你所能要求的最坦诚的伴侣。几十年前，她是一个耀眼的20岁钢琴学生，原以为自己已经逃离了根源以及她那像南极一样冰冷的母亲，前往印第安纳州的一所音乐学院。但命运露出了爪牙，她不得不带着骨子里的矛盾心情回到了田纳西州。

利维亚现在步入中年，与她极其体面的丈夫查理（Charlie）共同经营着一个小型奶牛场。查理在6岁时失去了一条腿，当时他的祖母不小心开着骑乘式割草机轧到了他：“每个人都知道这个故事。盛夏，大院子，对一个老妇人来说是一项繁重的工作。查理正按照母亲的要求，给他的奶奶送一瓶可口可乐。因为割草机的噪音，她没有听到他细小的呼唤声。”

这并不是最后一场降临的悲剧。在《帕蒂塔》的前两页中，利维亚告诉我们，在她11, 岁时，她心爱的哥哥赛勒斯（Cyrus）跳到了火车前，结束了他内心备受煎熬的一生，使她的家庭进一步陷入了尤金·奥尼尔式的悲剧境地。在第3, 页，她接到了一个来自西格德（Sigurd）的意外电话，那是她的一位旧情人，自从他在她大学期间摧毁了她的生活后，两人就再未交谈。西格德想见利维亚，因为一项医疗诊断让他开始审视自己的后视镜（回顾人生）。对于利维亚来说，这是一个令人不安的请求。“我放下电话，双手颤抖，心中有一种病态的感觉，觉得我一直在等待这样的事情，”她想，“不是火车，而是一场向我袭来的清算。”

再次见到西格德可能会带来情感上的终结或灾难，利维亚怀疑会是前者。首先，她已经嫁给了查理。（他们没有孩子，且在几十年后，查理依然深深迷恋她。）而且，她有一只被不祥地“毁掉”的右手，而她不知为何将其归咎于西格德。

利维亚拒绝立即给西格德答复。她花了一周时间来决定，再次让自己的心承受他是否就像是在为吸血鬼铺平欢迎垫。这部不完美但深具冲击力的小说《帕蒂塔》，讲述了利维亚在回顾往昔的七天里所经历的故事。

在书中的大学闪回片段中，她在1989. 年遇到了西格德。利维亚是一个穷困的奖学金学生，带着阿巴拉契亚口音，将“well”发音成“whale”，如果她的钢琴老师没有听到她的演奏，这本会成为一个决定性的缺陷。西格德则是一名排字工和工会组织者，在人行道上向人们分发马克思主义小册子。

为了防止他听起来不像个有趣的人，我应该指出，他也是利维亚见过的最性感的人。他们第一次见面时，他穿着一件“合身”的牛仔裤，拥有“像米开朗基罗的大卫像那样的手臂和手腕，我发誓，肌肉和筋腱中透着力量，而双手却带着温柔。我打了个寒颤。仿佛那些手已经触碰过我。”

金索尔弗曾在《纽约时报》中主张，文学作者如果回避性爱话题是愚蠢的。而她确实没有回避。至少在《帕蒂塔》中没有。

甚至在利维亚与她那温柔但缺乏激情的大学男友——一名管乐手，他有两个朋友被她称为“打击乐”和“巴松管”——分手之前，她与西古尔就在一间钢琴练习室里进行了一场令人震撼的幽会，相比之下，电影《鬼魂》中那段著名的感官戏码简直像个YouTube上的陶艺教程。这一幕至关重要，因为除此之外，这本书还探讨了爱与欲的区别，以及误诊自身情感状态的危险。

《组曲》（Partita）是金索尔在获得普利策奖的史诗巨作《恶魔铜头》（Demon Copperhead）之后的首部小说。在那本书中，她通过重新构思《大卫·科波菲尔》来使阿巴拉契亚地区的阿片类药物流行病人性化，在此过程中，她不仅向萨克勒家族表达了蔑视，也向尚未蓄胡的J.D.万斯表达了蔑视——后者在自说自话的《乡下人的挽歌》中描写了这场危机。与旨在回收狄更斯精神的《恶魔铜头》相比，《组曲》似乎显得规模较小。但金索尔无论在写作还是思考上从未走过极简主义路线（她那部令人惊叹的《毒木圣经》就是一个典型的例子）。

在《组曲》中——该词是指一种包含多种不同风格舞曲的巴洛克组曲——她探讨的不止是性痴迷和阶级主义，还有那些令人心痒的“如果”，人类的体面，音乐那吞噬一切的力量，以及被推迟的梦想所产生的蝴蝶效应。金索尔感兴趣的是我们在一生中积累的东西，就像磁铁吸引铁屑一样。或者像碎片一样。

《组曲》经常依赖于一些文学套路：性感的陌生人；一个让记忆复苏的、来自过去的电话；父母去世后浪子回头般的女儿归家，以及父母留下的极度杂乱的遗物，以此作为情感继承的隐喻。（“全是我的，全都是我的，”利维亚懊恼地说道。）

但这些套路起到了作用，金索尔如果不在给读者提供熟悉的路标和结构的情况下，或许无法容纳生活中如此之多的混乱。克里斯托弗·诺兰最近在谈到电影评论时说：“能够识别出机制并不意味着该机制失效。”我想他的意思是：如果你享受这次火车之旅，就不要抱怨轨道。

几个谜团牵引着读者阅读金索尔的小说。你会好奇书中早早随口提到的一句话是指什么：“我曾怀过一个孩子。”你想知道西古尔是如何“毁掉”利维亚的手的。利维亚还能演奏拉威尔、巴赫、舒伯特、肖邦以及其他人的作品吗？如果不能，她是否还知道自己是谁？（在某种程度上，金索尔写了一部关于钢琴家双手的惊悚小说。我的意思是，看看书封就知道了。）

《组曲》有几个章节节奏缓慢，但它们出现在中间部分，当时作者可能是在为令人心跳加速的最后三分之一在积蓄力量。在这些篇章中令你震惊的，部分是利维亚糟糕的运气，以及一两个似乎决心让情况雪上加霜的可恨之辈。书中有一些时刻像托马斯·哈代笔下那样忧伤，让你觉得血管里流淌的是雨水。但更令人动容的是——在利维亚尽管坚强却感到崩溃的时刻——一个几乎不认识她的人会给予她一点小小的善意，将她从深渊中拉出，让她重新攀上阶梯。

和利维亚一样，金索尔离开阿巴拉契亚前往印第安纳州，获得了一项钢琴奖学金。她现在回到了阿巴拉契亚，依然在演奏，但她透露过一种遗传病导致她的左手手指弯曲，需要定期手术和康复治疗。我对这些平行之处感兴趣，仅仅是因为金索尔对音乐和音乐家的描写如此具有感染力，以至于你可以感觉到《组曲》中的激情是真实的。

利维亚试图精通每首艰深曲目的尝试，成为了人生在很大程度上是试错式偏头痛的隐喻。但钢琴依然是她的信仰。小时候，她在空教堂的一架立式钢琴上练习。后来，当邻居们奇怪为什么周日见不到她时，她告诉我们一些俏皮且在某种程度上很美的话：“我进教堂纯粹是为了音乐。”

杰夫·盖尔斯（Jeff Giles）的小说《今晚有人救了我的命》（Someone Saved My Life Tonight）将于3月出版。他曾任《名利场》（Vanity Fair）好莱坞执行编辑。

加州的圣杯：一瓶优秀的 $20 葡萄酒

The Pour

摄影：伊恩·塔特（IAN TUTTLE）为《纽约时报》拍摄

作者：埃里克·阿西莫夫（ERIC ASIMOV）

肯尼·利基特普拉孔（Kenny Likitprakong）在索诺玛县（Sonoma County）的葡萄酒生意环境中长大。2004, 就在电影《侧耳倾听》（Sideways）上映前后，他创立了自己的品牌——流浪汉葡萄酒公司（Hobo Wine Company）。该片极力赞美了加州黑皮诺（pinot noir）之美及其优点。

“每个人都想要昂贵的黑皮诺，$50 plus，但我负担不起那些酒，”他在一次采访中说道，“那将是一笔巨大的挥霍，对我大多数朋友来说也是如此。一瓶酒要 $50 的想法简直疯了。”

利基特普拉孔先生决定采取行动。流浪汉公司将使用精心耕种的葡萄，酿造优质且价格实惠、售价在 $20 以下的葡萄酒。

“我们希望以一个让我们和像我们这样的人都感到舒适的价格来酿酒，”他说，并指出自己不是那种会追求 $100 一瓶葡萄酒的人。

二十年后，流浪汉公司现在已拥有半打不同的品牌，依然在生产极佳且价格适中的葡萄酒。利基特普拉孔先生开发的这种模式，正为加州葡萄酒中一个新兴类别指明方向。

自疫情结束以来，全球葡萄酒销量有所下降。在加州，长期以来的重点要么是生产奢侈葡萄酒，要么是生产廉价的大规模量产酒，而像流浪汉公司那样优质、用心制作且无需挥霍即可购买的葡萄酒一直是非常罕见的例外。

但在当前的经济困境中，通货膨胀、战争和关税似乎让所有东西都变得更贵，利基特普拉孔先生这样的葡萄酒已成为加州的一种“圣杯”。

虽然它们不能解决葡萄酒面临的所有问题，但至少能通过维持现金流来提供一种短期解决方案，并可能成为加州葡萄酒产业长期重新调整的一部分。

不，加州的生产商并没有突然地让酒铺里到处充斥着优秀的 $20 瓶装酒。但逐渐地，越来越多的生产商开始提供 $20 to $30 的卓越葡萄酒，这些酒可以作为人们口中那种周二晚上在家里喝的一瓶，或者在餐厅按杯计费的酒单上提供良好的性价比。

“那种昂贵的纳帕谷赤霞珠（Napa cab）模式，不能是我们在这里唯一做的事情，”利基特普拉孔先生说，“所有关于年轻人不喝酒的讨论，确实表明我们需要一个切入点，而不是廉价的低质量葡萄酒。如今的消费者太了解情况，也太聪明了。”

使用有机耕种的葡萄酿造优质且实惠的葡萄酒，要求生产商降低成本，而对于消费者来说，这意味着要牺牲一些熟悉感。这可能意味着使用来自马德拉县（Madera County）的皮克普（picpoul）或来自索拉诺县（Solano County）的瓦尔迪格（valdigué）来酿酒，而不是使用来自中央谷地化学耕作葡萄园的廉价霞多丽（chardonnay）或赤霞珠（cabernet sauvignon）。

这还可能意味着每年寻找最便宜的酒瓶交易，将软木塞更换为螺旋盖，或者接受机器采收而非手工采摘的葡萄。

这种酿酒趋势可能也有助于改变现代加州的葡萄酒文化。在 20 世纪末，加州葡萄酒在葡萄品种和风格上变得越来越单一，且在奢侈葡萄酒与通过技巧和操纵模仿奢侈酒的廉价加工酒之间变得更加两极分化。

“我们把世界级的顶级葡萄酒做得非常好，”乔恩·柏林（Jon Berlin）说道，他的新品牌“追逐以太”（Chasing Ether）旨在酿造价格在 $30 左右的卓越葡萄酒。“但这导致人们都想做奢侈酒。这里没有像欧洲那样酿造实惠葡萄酒的文化。相反，这里更多的是贴着虚假标签的大宗葡萄酒，而不是带着真正意图酿造的酒。”

帕特里克·卡皮耶洛（Patrick Cappiello）曾是纽约的一名侍酒师，他在2018年创立了蒙特里奥酒庄（Monte Rio Cellars），目标同样是酿造优质且实惠的葡萄酒。他回忆道，在担任侍酒师期间，他发现可以放入酒单的廉价好酒多如海洋，但没有一款来自加州。他很高兴看到这种情况正在改变。

“这让该州朝着我们需要方向重新定位，”他说，“如果加州只生产奢侈葡萄酒，我们就失去了吸引我们所有人的葡萄酒的真正精髓。”

柏林先生是一位加州葡萄酒业资深人士，其“追逐以太”（Chasing Ether）品牌的第一批年份酒产于2024, 是在酿造两款主打葡萄酒：一款是以白舍南（chenin blanc）为主、口感明亮且酸爽的白葡萄酒混酿；另一款是以心赛（cinsault）为主、带有辛辣风味且口感浓郁的红葡萄酒混酿。两者的价格均在$30. 左右。这些酒风格随和，但依然美味。

“我想酿造一些能够吸引年轻群体的、易于亲近的葡萄酒，”他说，“并非每款酒都必须像某种盛事一样隆重。”

他说，他希望自己的酒能等同于优质的店酒（house wines），并将理想客户想象成那些对好酒感兴趣但负担不起昂贵酒瓶的人。

并非所有开始提供此类产品的生产者都希望将其作为业务基础。在加州塞巴斯托波尔（Sebastopol），帕克斯·马勒（Pax Mahle）在Pax品牌下酿造极佳的葡萄酒，售价通常在$35 to $80. 但在2025, 他增加了两款由有机种植葡萄酿造的优质廉价酒：白舍南品种的Helios和Cuvée Syrah，售价为$20 to $25. 他说，他酿造了一年的供应量，但在三个月内就售罄了。他计划今年增加到三倍的产量，并增加一款长相思（sauvignon blanc）。

“通常，这个价位的葡萄酒依赖于橡木桶调味和浓缩剂，”他说，“而这些酒恰恰与那些大宗垃圾酒相反。”

对于马勒先生和其他人来说，酿造此类葡萄酒是一项协作努力，尤其是在当前的葡萄酒经济环境下——由于加州生产商通过减少购果来应对葡萄酒供应过剩，导致葡萄无人购买，葡萄藤被拔除。

种植者可能愿意为了长期合同的保障而接受较低的价格，从而使生产商能够降低售价。分销商也必须参与进来，并努力销售这些葡萄酒。

反过来，一款优质且低价的葡萄酒能吸引客户，当这些客户感到经济状况更宽裕时，可能会去尝试该品牌价格更高的酒款。

这就是布罗克酒庄（Broc Cellars）的运作方式。当克里斯·布罗克韦（Chris Brockway）在2006, 创立该品牌时，他采取了与利基特普拉孔（Likitprakong）先生类似的计划，寻找管理良好的葡萄园，以适中的价格酿造极佳的葡萄酒。多年来，Broc经历了演变，价格略有上涨，通常在$28 to $40, 尤其是自Broc在2023购买了门多西诺（Mendocino）一个55英亩的葡萄园之后。

但布罗克韦先生不想放弃低价档位，因此Broc现在在Love品牌下生产售价$20 to $25, 的白葡萄酒和红葡萄酒混酿，以及价格稍低的Got Grapes（一款冰镇红酒和一款橙酒）。

“这是我们的重要驱动力，是我们最重要的葡萄酒，”他说。

他说，为了让低价葡萄酒的经济模型可行，必须保证足够的产量且销售迅速。

“它必须快速周转，”他说，“利润空间很薄。如果你把

（图注）上图为由肯尼·利基特普拉孔（Kenny Likitprakong）创立的Hobo葡萄酒公司，底图每年生产25,000 to 30,000箱酒，大多数酒瓶价格在$20 to $25 范围内。中排左起：一些Hobo的标签，以及旨在酿造吸引年轻人的易亲近葡萄酒的乔恩·柏林（Jon Berlin）。

葡萄酒堆在仓库里，那些利润就没了。”

这种特定的组合很难实现。2012, 史蒂夫和吉尔·马蒂亚森（Steve and Jill Matthiasson）在纳帕谷（Napa Valley）酿造极佳葡萄酒，推出了Tendu，这是一款极佳的低价白葡萄酒和红葡萄酒混酿，以1升装瓶销售，价格约为$20. 这些酒很出色，但马蒂亚森在2021年份之后停止了Tendu的生产。

“挑战在于，中价位葡萄酒需要极高的销量才能维持运营，”马蒂亚森先生说道。“酒铺一年需要购买20箱低成本葡萄酒，而不是3箱。考虑到 Tendu 的规模，我们实在无法证明为了这种低利润葡萄酒而进行销售出差的合理性，所以遗憾的是，在经营了10多年后，我们意识到自己是在强行做一件不合适的事情。”

许多其他瓶装酒价格普遍较高的生产商也在销售 $30, 以下的葡萄酒，例如 Sandlands、Lioco、Ryme Cellars 和 Martha Stoumen。

在柏林先生看来，生产这类日常饮用酒的趋势表明加州葡萄酒文化正在走向成熟。

奢侈品是地位的象征，但日常饮用的酒则是为热爱葡萄酒的人准备的。

“这是一种对更真实、更成熟、更具文化底蕴的葡萄酒接触方式的渴望，”他说。“我们希望在餐桌前坐得更久，更长久地享受彼此的陪伴。”

利基特普拉孔先生对此表示赞同。加州葡萄酒文化，尤其是纳帕谷——那里的餐厅、酒店以及其他一切都极其昂贵——暗示了葡萄酒仅属于富人的观念。

“葡萄酒在很大程度上仍被视为奢侈品，因此周围也充斥着各种奢侈氛围，”他说。“酒庄很华丽，餐厅很华丽——但其实不必如此。”

Alhambra，自 1968 年起庆祝好运

梵克雅宝

高级珠宝，自 1906 年起位于旺多姆广场

The New York Times

INTERNATIONAL EDITION | FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026

An election amid Israeli exhaustion

Yonatan Touval

OPINION

TEL AVIV Israel's coming election is best watched from a palace roof in Argos.

Aeschylus' "Agamemnon," the first play of the "Oresteia" trilogy, begins there, with a watchman waiting for the beacon announcing Troy's fall. His first words: "I pray the gods to quit me of my toils, / To close the watch I keep, this livelong year." He is not asking for more news. He is asking for the watching to end.

In Israel, the watching never seems to end. The last act before sleep is to reach for the phone on the night stand to check for news. If you wake during the night, you check it again. Before morning coffee, the day begins in the same place: Has something happened in Iran? Has a reserve call-up been announced? What did the government do while you slept?

In a nation on perpetual alert, many hope that the upcoming vote will bring some relief.

Being glued to a phone, of course, is now part of the human condition. It is especially acute for Israelis. Before the smartphone era, the beeps signaling the hourly news bulletin on the radio could silence a whole bus. The instrument is new; the habit is not. Israelis check for trouble the way people elsewhere check for rain. But nobody decides the weather.

On Oct. 27, Israelis will vote in their first national election since the catastrophe of Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led attackers killed 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 others. The election will pass judgment on responsibility for that day and could help decide Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future. Beneath it all lies a more intimate question: Can Israelis recover the ordinary privilege of not having to watch their government all the time?

Israel has never entirely been off alert. A state of emergency declared in May 1948 remains. There is something absurd about a national emergency old enough to have grandchildren. Israelis work through wars, plan holidays around missile threats and resume dinner after leaving the shelter. Life goes on; vigilance never turns off.

More than two centuries ago, the French Swiss political thinker Benjamin Constant argued that representative government allowed citizens to entrust the work of governing to others while retaining the duty to watch those who govern. One of democracy's quietest promises is that politics need not TOUVAL, PAGE 10

The New York Times publishes opinion from a wide range of perspectives in hopes of promoting constructive debate about consequential questions.

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project (as of Oct. 4).

JOSH HOLDER/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Ukraine thwarts a Russian push

Counteroffensive stymies Moscow's efforts as Kyiv claws back land in the Donbas

Ukrainian troops, above, fired at a Russian target in the direction of Lyman in eastern Ukraine. Moscow has said its capture of the Donbas region is inevitable.
TYLER HICKS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

BY MARC SANTORA AND JOSH HOLDER

The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has repeatedly said that the fall of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is inevitable and will happen faster than Kyiv thinks.

Recent trends on the battlefield paint a different picture.

A monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northern part of the Donbas has thwarted Russian efforts to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region. Russia, Western analysts say, has lost dozens of square miles of territory during the Ukrainian campaign, which Kyiv is calling Operation Vivaldi.

In the southern Donbas, Russia continues to mount furious assaults to break through Ukrainian lines. But Kyiv has reorganized its defense there and has so far kept the Russian military from pressing farther in its efforts to surround the major Donbas cities.

More broadly, Russian gains across Ukraine have slowed markedly in 2026 from their already glacial pace of last year. September was the worst month in net territorial gains for Russia inside Ukraine since June 2023, according to the Finland-based research firm Black Bird Group.

While Western researchers who track the battlefield report varying numbers, they generally agree that Russia has gained only slightly more land than it has lost this year.

That contrasts sharply with the narrative put forward by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which said on Sept. 19 that Russia had captured more than 2,000 square miles (about 5,200 square kilometers). Even ultranationalist Russian military bloggers have pushed back, voicing concern that Russia's push to envelop the so-called fortress cities of the Donbas is failing.

The Ukrainian gains have come as both sides have tried to find a way to re-store movement on a battlefield that had become largely deadlocked because of ubiquitous drones.

The Vivaldi operation, said George

Barros, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, shows that when a military lays the necessary groundwork, mechanized movement remains possible even under dense drone surveillance. Still, it took Ukraine months of preparations to reclaim a tiny fraction of its lost land.

Mr. Putin has said that full Russian control of the Donbas, gained either through force or through Ukrainian concessions, is a nonnegotiable condition for ending the war. Ukraine has rejected Trump administration proposals that it hand over land that Russia has failed to seize on the battlefield.

With its goals still unmet in the Donbas, Moscow has escalated its air war against Ukrainian cities, using its advantage in missiles and drones to bombard Kyiv, the capital. Strikes in several cities overnight on Wednesday left at least 20 people dead, Ukrainian officials said. They have called the Russian bombardment a campaign of terrorism aimed at breaking the country's will to fight.

Operation Vivaldi is named for what Ukraine calls the campaign's four "seasons," or phases, and refers to the composer's most famous work.

As Russian forces moved forward this year in areas east of the “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and pushed into Kostiantynivka from the south, Ukraine was preparing a counter-offensive to the north.

Before launching offensive actions, Ukrainian forces first had to stabilize their defensive lines, stopping Russia's slow advances in the northern Donbas, according to interviews with Ukrainian commanders.

Then, the commanders said, Ukraine moved to create conditions on the battlefield that would allow its troops to advance.

Kyiv's forces targeted Russian logistics, expanding a middle-range strike campaign aimed at the roads and railways that feed Russia's troops and matériel into battle. As part of that effort, Ukraine destroyed an oil pipeline, cutting access to fuel that Russia needed UKRAINE, PAGE 4

How Yemen failed to stop Houthi blitz on Red Sea

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA

In one night of chaos, Iran-allied militia routed Saudi-backed forces

BY VIVIAN NEREIM, SAEED AL-BATATI AND SHUAIB ALMOSAWA

In the weeks before the Iran-backed Houthi militia fanned out along Yemen's Red Sea coast, sending their foes into a frenzied retreat, a Yemeni government commander called for help.

It was obvious to the commander, Lt. Gen. Tareq Saleh, that the Houthis wanted to seize his territory in order to reach the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's most important waterways.

According to three Yemeni officials, he tried to warn his powerful allies in Saudi Arabia and the United States. About 10 percent of global trade goes through the strait. Amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, both countries had an interest in preventing an Iran-linked militia from winning a perch beside it.

Yet last month — when the Houthis did just that — no one was able, or willing, to stop them.

The militia's stunning triumph over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which unfolded in a single night of chaos and panic, set off a cascade of events that has plunged Yemen into a war with global reverberations.

This week, Saudi Arabia began a bombing campaign to help the Yemeni government reclaim the territory it lost, with intelligence and targeting assistance from the U.S. military. On Tuesday, government-allied forces claimed to have made significant gains, besieging the Houthi fighters who held the strait.

It is unclear whether the Houthis' advance will hold, or where they will stop if it does. The Saudi government has pledged to help the Yemeni government "eliminate" the Houthis. The last time they took up that mantle, a decade ago, it devolved into a bloody quagmire.

This is the inside story of the battle that reignited Yemen's war and the dark lessons it imparts for the next phase of fighting. The Houthi victory on Sept. 10 showed how a ragtag militia has transformed into a formidable force with advanced technology. It was a major defeat for the Yemeni government and its Saudi patrons.

This article is based on interviews with more than 15 people who participated in the fighting or were briefed on what happened, including soldiers, Yemeni military officers, officials with Yemen's internationally recognized government, U.S. officials and Houthi officials. Almost all of them spoke on the condition of anonymity, either because they feared retribution from the Houthis or Saudi Arabia, or because they were not authorized to discuss what happened. Their accounts make it clear that HOUTHIS, PAGE 4

In India, a food safety inspector is a rock star

MUMBAI, INDIA

PHOTOGRAPHS BY ZISHAAN A LATIF FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
"I am scared of you," one restaurateur said to Tukaram Mundhe, the top food and drug official of Maharashtra State in India. Above, a member of his team during a raid.

Videos of surprise raids turn Tukaram Mundhe into an unlikely celebrity

BY SUHASINI RAJ AND JONATHAN WOLFE

The early-morning raid caught the staff at a popular Mumbai restaurant by surprise.

Food safety officials swept into the kitchen, scrutinizing the tandoori ovens and expiration dates on batches of butter. They quickly uncovered a number of issues. One employee was chopping ginger while sitting on the floor; another, preparing chapatis with a rolling pin, was wearing shorts.

"Why aren't you in pants?" asked an official. But she, and New York Times journalists observing the raid, were soon distracted by a group of cockroaches scurrying past an oil canister.

Mr. Mundhe says his rigid adherence to the rules has earned him death threats.

The inspection last month at Olympia Coffee House found scores of health and safety violations and resulted in an order to close the century-old institution. It was the latest high-profile operation spearheaded by Tukaram Mundhe, the state's new top food and drug official, whose zero-tolerance campaign against INDIA, PAGE 2

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FILMPUBLICITYARCHIVE/UNITED ARCHIVES, VIA GETTY IMAGES

Above from left: Eva Marie Saint with Cary Grant in Alfred Hitchcock's "North by Northwest" in 1959; with Lillian Gish in the 1953 television broadcast of "The Trip to Bountiful"; and with Ben Hubbard in "Superman Returns" in 2006, while playing Superman's mother.
DAVID JAMES/WARNER BROTHERS PICTURES

She won an Oscar for ‘On the Waterfront’

Ms. Saint and Marlon Brando in "On the Waterfront" (1954). Both won Oscars, and the film won the award for best picture.
COLUMBIA PICTURES

EVA MARIE SAINT 1924-2026

BY ALJEAN HARMETZ

Eva Marie Saint, who won an Academy Award in 1955 for her gripping movie debut as the shy love interest of Marlon Brando's longshoreman in "On the Waterfront," and who proved equally convincing as a stylish siren opposite Cary Grant in the romantic Hitchcock thriller "North by Northwest," died on Tuesday at her home in Los Angeles. She was 102.

A family representative, Jeff Sanderson, confirmed the death.

Blond and delicately beautiful — as a child, she played an angel in school pageants — Ms. Saint had been a working actress for eight years by the time she made her first movie. She learned her craft on live television dramas — which, with their three cameras and constant tumult, forced her to learn to concentrate, she said.

Her supporting performance in “On the Waterfront,” which boasted one of the most impressive casts and crews ever assembled, would alone have assured her a place in movie history; the movie remains near the top of the American Film Institute’s list of the country’s greatest films. It won the Oscar for best picture and director (for Elia Kazan), and Mr. Brando took home the award for best actor, for his tormented performance as a former prizefighter who moonlights as muscle for a corrupt union.

Even if Mr. Brando had the most indelible lines (“I coulda been a contender”), Budd Schulberg, who won the screenwriting Oscar, said Ms. Saint had the riskiest assignment — portraying a convent-educated young woman, Edie, who simmers with passion for Mr. Brando’s Terry Malloy. Edie, who discovers Terry played a role in the death of her brother, who had run afoul of union racketeers, plays a critical role waking Malloy’s conscience.

Mr. Kazan said he selected Ms. Saint from among hundreds of actresses for her ability to convey the “simplicity and faith that well-brought-up Catholic girls have,” but he noted that she also brought an explosive capacity for lust and an ability to keep up with Mr. Brando, a master of improvisation.

Nine months pregnant with her first child when she picked up her Oscar at the RKO Pantages Theater in Hollywood, she told the audience, "I'm so excited I may have the baby right here." Her son was born two days later.

Stardom beckoned, but Ms. Saint decided to raise a family and to make only one movie a year while her two children were growing up. She later recalled turning down a three-picture deal that her agent promised would make her “a superstar.” What she preferred, she reflected in 1996 to the Hollywood interviewers David Fantle and Tom Johnson, was “to be a working actress with a home life that worked.”

Nevertheless, Ms. Saint had a fruitful and celebrated career. Almost as acclaimed as her work in "On the Waterfront" was her performance as a seductive mystery woman opposite Mr. Grant in "North by Northwest" (1959), which is also on the A.F.I. list.

As Mr. Grant's Madison Avenue executive finds himself on the run, falsely accused of committing a high-profile murder, he finds himself seated in a train dining car with Ms. Saint. In a twist, and to his delight, she is the sexual aggressor. "It's going to be a long night," she tells him. "And I don't particularly like the book I've started. You know what I mean?"

In later years, she said some of the easiest work in her entire professional life involved the many retakes required to film their kissing scenes.

Most of Ms. Saint's performances were intensely dramatic. She played the steadfast wife of a drug addict (Don Murray) in "A Hatful of Rain" (1957); the childhood sweetheart who loses Montgomery Clift to Elizabeth Taylor in "Raintree County" (1957); the widowed American nurse who falls in love with a Jewish warrior (Paul Newman) during the fight to create the state of Israel in "Exodus" (1960); and the older woman who is bedded and betrayed by a young drifter (Warren Beatty) in "All Fall Down" (1962).

When given the chance, though, Ms. Saint proved a deft comic actress, playing a secretary still half in love with her ex-husband (Bob Hope) in “That Certain Feeling” (1956) and Carl Reiner’s wife in “The Russians Are Coming, the Russians Are Coming” (1966), a Cold War farce about a New England town that thinks it’s being invaded by the Soviets.

In the 1970s, when movie work grew increasingly scarce, Ms. Saint, always levelheaded and pragmatic, returned happily and successfully to television. She starred in TV movies; played Cybill Shepherd's mother in the late 1980s on the ABC comedy-drama series "Moonlighting"; and won an Emmy Award in 1990 as a nasty dowager in the NBC version of Dominick Dunne's biting novel about the upper crust, "People Like Us."

Eva Marie Saint, the younger of two daughters, was born in East Orange, N.J., on July 4, 1924, and grew up in Delmar, N.Y.

Her father, John Merle Saint, was an executive with B.F. Goodrich, the tire manufacturer. Her mother, Eva Marie (Rice) Saint, had been a schoolteacher.

She was a calm, almost grave, child, her mother told Cosmopolitan magazine in 1954; she thought her daughter had inherited her “serenity” from her father, a Quaker.

Becoming an actress was almost accidental. Ms. Saint followed her older sister, Adelaide, to Bowling Green State University in Ohio, and almost immediately found herself cast as the lead in college plays. Stunningly attractive, she was also voted “Sweater Queen” and “May Queen” by her fellow students.

She graduated in 1946 with a bachelor's degree in speech. (The university named a theater after her in 2012.) New York, and television, were the next step. Her early roles included playing a singing cheerleader in a tennis shoe commercial and, more notably, making an appearance on “Studio One” in the Ring Lardner-George S. Kaufman play “June Moon” in 1949, opposite another young hopeful, Jack Lemmon.

Playing the rebellious daughter Claudia for two years on the prime-time television version of the radio soap opera "One Man's Family" earned her good money but left her discontented. An equally discontented aspiring director, Jeffrey Hayden, invited her to lunch; they married in 1951.

In the fourth decade of her marriage to Mr. Hayden, who had a long career as a television director, Ms. Saint told The Los Angeles Times: "I really don't wake up every morning and say, 'Well, now, isn't this unusual? I'm sleeping with the same man after 43 years.' I do say that you work at marriage. It doesn't just happen."

Mr. Hayden died in 2016 at 90. She is survived by their two children, Darrell and Laurette; four grandchildren; and two great-grandchildren.

To a torrent of critical acclaim, Ms. Saint starred with Lillian Gish in Horton Foote's 1953 television play "The Trip to Bountiful," as a young woman befriended by an older one on a long bus ride. When "The Trip to Bountiful" moved to Broadway later in 1953, it was a commercial failure, but Mr. Kazan and Mr. Schulberg were in the audience at one of its 39 performances.

Almost as acclaimed as her work in "On the Waterfront" was her performance as a mystery woman in "North by Northwest."

Mr. Foote said her “ability to transmit an inner purity” made her right for the part in “Bountiful,” and that same quality, Mr. Kazan and Mr. Schulberg concurred, made her ideal for “On the Waterfront.”

Among Ms. Saint's other movies were "36 Hours" (1964), a World War II drama co-starring James Garner, and "The Sandpiper" (1965), in which she loses the man she loves (Richard Burton, as her husband and an Episcopal clergyman) to a freethinking artist (Ms. Taylor). She was a prisoner rescued by an Army scout (Gregory Peck) and then followed along the western frontier by her renegade Apache captor in "The Stalking Moon" (1968).

Well into her later years, Ms. Saint was still a working actress. She played Superman's foster mother, Martha Kent, in the movie "Superman Returns" (2006) and had a central role as a spinster librarian opposite a 10-year-old girl and a dog in "Because of Winn-Dixie" (2005). One of her last movie appearances was in the fantasy "Winter's Tale," based on the Mark Helprin novel, in 2014.

Asked in an interview for Vanity Fair in 2011 if she ever watched her own films, Ms. Saint replied: "Sometimes I do. And I think, well, gee. You did that? Good job!"

Adam Bernstein contributed reporting.

In India, a food safety inspector has become a celebrity

Olympia raid, adding: "It's my job to keep the public's health safe."

INDIA, FROM PAGE 1

PHOTOGRAPHS BY ZISHAAN A LATIF FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

rogue kitchens and sloppy manufacturers has captured India's imagination.

No business appears to escape Mr. Mundhe's attention. His staff has inspected famed establishments such as Olympia — where Matt Damon and Tom Holland had tea this summer while promoting “The Odyssey” — as well as street vendors, government cafeterias, high-end restaurants and chains like McDonald's.

Later that day, at the other end of the sprawling coastal city, an inspection team arrived unannounced at a factory for food flavorings and bakery additives. They found mango purée that was a year past its expiration date and mislabeled bottles of strawberry glazing gel. That business, too, was told to suspend operations.

His office has shared videos of raids with the news media, turning Mr. Mundhe, an abstemious, 51-year-old career bureaucrat, into an unlikely celebrity.

Bollywood actors praise him. Chastened restaurateurs file into his office to plead and cajole. Critics call him overzealous, while fans describe him as a modern saint and diners flash his image on their phones as a warning to servers.

What is not in dispute is that Mr. Mundhe, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration in Maharashtra, India's second most populous state, has set off a national conversation about food standards and hygiene.

"This is what I want — that people are aware about food safety," Mr. Mundhe said during an interview after the

AN AGGRESSIVE APPROACH

Indian news outlets regularly carry stories that make the stomach churn: students hospitalized after a lizard was found in their school breakfast, a family sickened by a resort's moldy birthday cake, a cockroach on a restaurant table at a five-star hotel.

"The overall situation around food safety and sanitation in India has been pretty bad," said Pawan Agarwal, a former head of the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India, the country's equivalent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Regulations and testing facilities are comparable to those of many industrialized nations, all of which have unclean food establishments to some degree. But Mr. Agarwal said that in India, enforcement has been weak and often undermined by corruption. Consequences for violations can be minor, he said, and it can take years for cases to be litigated, allowing rule breakers to continue operating for long periods.

Mr. Mundhe, who took office in May, has been more aggressive, moving quickly to shut down noncompliant businesses until they address problems.

During a reporter's visit last month, in his office in a Mumbai business district, Mr. Mundhe stared stone-faced behind rimless glasses as proprietors trooped in to plead for a reprieve.

The owner of a Chinese restaurant that had been ordered to close showed cellphone photos of his sparkling kitchen and new refrigeration system. Sheepish, he spoke of his employees, who he said were out of work.

"I am scared of you, sir," he said finally.

"You should be scared of the law and not me," Mr. Mundhe replied.

RURAL ORIGINS AND A MORAL CODE Mr. Mundhe grew up in rural Maharashtra, on a farm so saddled with debt that he said he didn't own footwear until he was a teenager.

He credits his ethics to his father, a millet and vegetable farmer who once shared proceeds from a tree felled on his property with his brother, simply because it had shaded his brother's land, Mr. Mundhe said.

Mr. Mundhe's older brother Ashok, the first from the village to attend college, helped finance his education. After passing India's competitive civil service exam, Mr. Mundhe worked a range of jobs, including inspecting adulterated fuel and taking on local crime syndicates.

He has been transferred out of 25 posts in 21 years — which he attributed to his rigid adherence to the rules, work that at times had earned him death threats.

"What keeps me going is my simple philosophy, the ethical part of it, that if I cannot do the job, who can?" he said.

Above, Swamy Gowda, who runs a snack stall in Mumbai, has started wrapping food in food-grade wax paper instead of newspaper. Left, a food additives factory that was told to suspend operations after an inspection last month.

Mr. Mundhe said he eats only one meal a day and avoids processed food. As commissioner, he has banned foods that are high in sugar, sodium, salt and fat from schools. He has also gone after corporations, turning up expired goods in one Amazon warehouse, and accusing PepsiCo and Red Bull of misleading consumers by labeling products “energy drinks,” arguing that there is no approved definition of the term.

In his first three months, often acting on tips, Mr. Mundhe's office said it had inspected roughly 12,000 locations and found that only half were fully compliant.

Other powerful interests have chafed at his approach. Some on the Hindu right have accused him of unfairly targeting vendors at religious festivals. In July, the Bombay High Court questioned whether Mr. Mundhe was disproportionately going after private businesses.

Soon afterward, his office raided the court's canteens, shutting down two for lacking valid licenses. The next month, the court rebuked his office for going "overboard" and ordered it to pay roughly \$5,100 to a sweets shop for keeping its license suspended longer than judges said was necessary. Mr. Mundhe said he had appealed the decision.

To his fans, some of whom drop by his office for meet-and-greets, it's as if he can do no wrong.

One recent evening, a group of young college professors came to tell him they were making a documentary about his work. An aspiring civil servant said she had traveled over 500 miles (800 kilometers).

A group of dairy farmers from outside Mumbai thanked him for cracking down on tainted milk, saying their profits had risen.

Down the road from his office, Swamy Gowda, a food vendor, invoked Mr. Mundhe in explaining why he had begun wrapping his vada pav — Mumbai's favorite street snack, a potato cutlet nestled in a buttery roll — in food-grade wax paper. He had always used newspaper, which is far cheaper, but recently learned that it could leach toxic ink onto food.

"We need to follow what Mr. Mundhe says," he added. "Public health first."

School shows why students are protesting

PARIS

Above, students blocking access to the run-down Paul Éluard school in a Paris suburb, during a protest calling for better learning conditions. Left, Mayor Bally Bagayoko standing between students and police officers during a demonstration.
ABDUL SABOOR/REUTERS

KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

Echoes of anger expressed in Paris suburb heard at rallies across France

BY SÉGOLÈNE LE STRADIC

When students at Paul Éluard, a high school in a working-class suburb north of Paris, arrived for the first day of school, they found classrooms lacking chairs, tables and reliable electricity, students and teachers said. With the school under renovation, students were being taught instead in prefabricated buildings with bad insulation, filthy toilets and regular power outages, they said.

Then came the staffing shortage. Two mathematics professors were moved to another school, leaving no one to cover their classes for over a week. There were no replacements for the school's absent psychologist or careers adviser, they said, and there was only a single part-time nurse to provide on-site medical care to roughly 2,000 students.

"It was a completely chaotic way to welcome students," said Irène Cailleteau, a mathematics teacher at Paul Éluard since 2020. "It was an extremely difficult way to start the year."

Those are among the frustrations that have fueled a surge of student protests since late September, both at Paul Éluard — one of the wellsprings of the unrest — and at hundreds of high schools across France.

Thousands of students, sometimes backed by teachers like Ms. Cailleteau, have blockaded their schools to protest widespread teacher shortages, creaking school infrastructure and grueling schedules — and to demand an overhaul of the national system that allocates places in higher education programs.

Protesters were set to pour into streets across France on Thursday for the second time in a week, in a test of whether the growing movement of student protesters can swell into a nationwide wave of grievance.

The movement, which was bolstered on Tuesday by union-led rallies in more than 40 French cities, has divided the country and inflamed political tensions, particularly after many demonstrations descended into violence. Some protesters have shot off mortar-style fireworks, burned public buildings and looted shops, while rights groups and jurists have accused the police of disproportionate force. In just over two weeks, more than 6,500 people have been arrested, and more than 750 police officers, as well as roughly 300 students and staff members, have been injured, according to French officials.

At the demonstrations at Paul Éluard, footage showed largely peaceful protesters, disrupted by some participants who pulled down part of the school fence and set fires in the street outside. That led the authorities in late September to order the school's closure, ban protests in front of it and arrest several students.

The school's principal and the local branch of the Education Ministry declined to comment on the accounts in this article. The office of the regional president, Valérie Pécresse, said that her administration had recently invested about \$50 million to improve the school, which is among more than 50 in the area, a suburb called Seine-St.-Denis, that has been newly renovated.

To students and teachers at Paul Élu-

"It was a completely chaotic way to welcome students. It was an extremely difficult way to start the year."

ard, that investment doesn't do enough to reverse decades of neglect, both at the school and in the wider district.

In Seine-St.-Denis, a sprawling area with a large immigrant community, the unemployment and poverty rates far exceed the national average. That inequity is mirrored in the district's education system: 61 percent of middle and high schools in Seine-St.-Denis and its neighboring areas had a missing teacher at the start of the year, according to a survey by a major labor union of more than 1,000 French schools. That was eight points higher than the national average.

"The problem is national, but it's three times as bad in the suburbs," said Bilel Narjissi, a senior at Paul Éluard and a member of the school's student council.

Recent students and teachers at Paul Éluard said classes had spent an entire school year without a professor in some subjects, including philosophy, which heavily affected students' preparation for their senior exams.

France's education minister, Édouard Geffray, said on Tuesday that the number of teaching vacancies had fallen by more than half over the past year.

But students said they had yet to feel meaningful change.

Zakarya Boukhadda, a 16-year-old at Paul Éluard, said at a rally this week that there weren't enough special educators at the school, especially "for students with neurodivergent conditions or autism like myself."

Paul Éluard, founded in 1965, was named for a French writer whose poem "Liberté" became a widely read ode to freedom during World War II.

Over time, the school bearing his name became synonymous with decline. In May 2023, staff members created a social media account comparing the high school to the Titanic. Pictures and videos showed cracked and crumbling walls, leaking or collapsed ceilings and flooded floors.

Those conditions were also described in interviews with former and current students, who recalled rats scouring the hallways.

In late 2024, regional officials reported finding parts of the school in a state of disrepair, warning of fire doors that had been wedged shut, a blocked emergency exit and signs of vandalism.

Ms. Pécresse's office said that the regional government had tried to resolve the structural problems at the school, including by waterproofing its buildings, adding fire doors and providing more security, as well as investing the \$50 million, about 45 million euros, which would go toward “a comprehensive transformation of the entire site.”

But to the students and their supporters, those additions are too little too late and have left students cooped up in substandard temporary buildings while the renovation goes on.

Bally Bagayoko, a far-left local mayor, told journalists at a rally on Sunday that the regional council's response was "contemptuous."

"They say, 'We're giving you 45 million,' said Mr. Bagayoko, who has often joined demonstrations in solidarity with the students. "That means, 'Be satisfied with what we're giving you, be happy that we're giving you anything at all," he added.

Mr. Bagayoko, 53, grew up in the area and recalled studying in badly insulated buildings when he was a student.

Ms. Pécresse has dismissed Mr. Bagayoko as a rabble-rouser, pledging on social media to send him "the bill for the 100,000-euro replacement of the gate at Paul Éluard High School."

For some at Paul Éluard, the conditions at the schools compound the perception that the national leaders care little for the area or its underprivileged residents, many of whose families come from France's former colonies in Africa.

"They simply don't care about us," said Zorah Adrachi, 19, who graduated from Paul Éluard in the summer hoping to study psychology or train as a teacher.

Despite passing her senior exams, an achievement that generally guarantees entry to university, Ms. Adrachi is among thousands of young high school graduates who have not been offered a place on a higher education program, leaving her in limbo.

Mr. Narjissi, the student council member, who wore the French tricolor on the collar of his woolen coat, said he would not give up the fight for better learning conditions.

"Maybe our parents didn't dare pursue executive careers or positions of responsibility," he said.

"But tomorrow we'll be the members of Parliament, we'll be the mayors, and we'll keep going and we won't give up," Mr. Narjissi added.

Britain's Conservative Party is seeking a reset

OLI SCARFF/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader, in Birmingham, England, on Sunday. She has sought to differentiate her party from the right-wing populist Reform U.K. party.

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND

Its leader, Kemi Badenoch, must navigate divisions on the nation's political right

BY STEPHEN CASTLE

Plain-speaking, confident and buoyed by rising personal ratings, Kemi Badenoch has gained a tight grip on Britain's main opposition Conservative Party since she became its leader in 2024, following its disastrous general election defeat.

But as she delivered a keynote speech on Wednesday at her party's annual conference in Birmingham, England, Ms. Badenoch, who is the first Black leader of a major British political party, faced battles on two fronts.

Despite her own improved ratings, the Conservatives are less popular with voters, surveys suggest, than when they suffered their catastrophic loss in 2024. According to opinion polls, they trail not just the governing Labour Party — rejuvenated under its recently installed leader, Prime Minister Andy Burnham

— but also the right-wing populist Reform U.K. party, led by Nigel Farage.

Mr. Farage has had a rocky few months, with questions swirling about his finances and those of his party, but Reform's support in the polls still hovers at around 22 percent, about five percentage points above the Tories.

The fractures on Britain's political right could help the Labour Party in the next general election, analysts say, which must be called by 2029 but could come sooner. “Farage has not yet conceded that he can’t kill the Conservatives and perhaps still hopes that he can,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “And Badenoch shows no signs of wanting to do a deal with Reform, at least before the election.”

In her speech, Ms. Badenoch rejected explicitly the idea of a pact with Reform, pointing to police investigations into that party's finances. "To those who say 'unite the right,' we are not uniting with that," she said.

Ms. Badenoch also criticized people who “debate whether my mixed-race children are English,” saying she should not have to explain to her son, while watching England’s soccer team, “that some people don’t think our Black players are English.”

Suella Braverman, a Reform lawmaker and former Conservative who was born in England to parents who emigrated from Mauritius and Kenya, recently said she did not count herself as English, claiming it was an “ethnicity,” rather than a nationality. Her comments provoked a fierce debate.

While Ms. Badenoch drew some dividing lines with Reform, she also announced several policies apparently designed to tempt Reform voters, talking tough on migration and promising welfare cuts and looser climate change targets. In her speech, she contrasted the Tories with Labour by pledging lower taxes and less government intervention. Promising a “battle for the soul of this nation,” she argued that “spending money we don’t have on things we cannot afford is not kind, it is reckless.”

She also outlined plans to reduce inheritance tax, which is deeply unpopular even though it is paid by less than 5 percent of the population.

In Birmingham, the mood was upbeat among many Conservatives, despite the party's failure to improve its ratings since the election that ejected them from power after 14 years.

The party displayed a mock-up of the famous Bayeux Tapestry, the original of which is currently on display in London. Its “Birmingham Tapestry” features satirical images of opponents, including Mr. Farage who is portrayed at one point as a wailing infant throwing his toys out of a stroller, a reference to his anger at a parliamentary investigation into an undisclosed five million-pound (\$6.6 million) gift.

Ms. Badenoch, who is depicted in the mock tapestry as a triumphal leader, has produced a 30,000-word document on her political principles, telling The Times of London, “I call it Kemistry.”

Many supporters hope that Mr.

Farage's troubles will continue and that Mr. Burnham's popularity subsides amid economic challenges, leaving the Conservatives as the obvious alternative. Some activists believe, however, that the party should pay close attention to the online debate among supporters of Reform U.K. and Restore Britain — a far-right party led by a Reform defector.

"The Conservative Party needs to explore the conversation online and direct it into a positive direction for itself," said Lucy Harris, a Conservative Party member who once represented Mr. Farage's Brexit Party, the forerunner of Reform, in the European Parliament.

By trying to capture some voters back from Reform, Ms. Badenoch has shifted her party rightward. That will most likely make it less attractive to more centrist Conservative voters, some of whom have switched to supporting the Liberal Democrats.

Reform has helped Ms. Badenoch in one respect, by providing a home for her former leadership rival, Robert Jenrick, who defected from the Conservatives to Mr. Farage's party earlier this year.

Relations between leading Conservative Party and Reform U.K. figures are icy. For now, a deal to unite the right looks unlikely even if, on some issues, the Conservatives and Reform are not so far apart.

Things could change, however.

"Before elections it's always difficult," Professor Bale said. "If the next election were to deliver the two parties, put together, a possible majority, then they maybe would be able to come to some agreement."

Three juntas introduce a TV channel in Africa

DAKAR, SENEGAL

Available in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, it is supported by Russia

BY RUTH MACLEAN AND SAIKOU JAMMEH

The generals now have the mic.

Three African military governments started a joint television channel with support from Russia last month, as part of a larger crackdown on journalists amid a worsening security crisis in the Sahel region of West Africa.

Tafouk TV, a channel with the tagline, "Television for a sovereign Africa," started broadcasting last month and serves Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — three countries that have in recent years distanced themselves from former allies like France. Last year, all three nations left a West African alliance known as ECOWAS and formed their own Alliance of Sahelian States.

Broadcasting from Bamako, Mali's capital, the new channel is named after the Tamasheq word for “sun” and showcases content favorable to the juntas. One recent program was dedicated to the “civic and patriotic education” of middle-school children.

Another accused the French of “plundering resources” at a Nigerien uranium mine. Music videos feature soldiers dancing in the back of pickup trucks and around military helicopters, singing flattering songs about their military leaders.

The worsening security situation in the three countries, which are battling armed groups affiliated with Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, does not appear to be a programming priority.

Mali's foreign minister, Abdoulaye Diop, said in a Facebook post that the channel was operating in a "hostile geopolitical context, marked by a hybrid war of narratives," and that he hoped it would promote sovereignty and "dispel the darkness of terrorism."

Dealing with this terrorism, which has destabilized the region for well over a decade, was a major pledge made by each of the countries' juntas when they seized power in a spate of regional coups. Later, they pushed out French troops that had been helping to fight the insurgencies and instead enlisted Russian military support.

Russia's support for the juntas now extends beyond the battlefield to the airwaves.

Far from stemming the violence, though, the juntas have seen insecurity spread under their rule. “There has been a clear surge in major militant attacks in recent months,” said Héni Nsaibia, an analyst with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which tracks conflict data in Africa.

Russia's support for the juntas now extends beyond the battlefield to the air-waves. The Kremlin-owned media outlet RT signed a partnership with Tafouk TV's general manager, Salif Sanogo, when Russia's foreign minister visited Niger in July. Russian media organizations have expanded in Africa in recent years, hiring journalists who can work in local languages, and pushed pro-Russian content across the continent, using Africa as a testing ground for its disinformation tactics, analysts say.

But now, “Russia is moving away from being the obvious face of propaganda in the region,” said Beverly Ochieng, an analyst focused on the Sahel for the security consulting firm Control Risks.

Instead, she said, “Sahelian juntas and media platforms are now the ones taking charge of their own narratives, but obviously these will be very pro-government narratives.”

In the meantime, crackdowns on journalists have continued apace across all the three countries.

Moussa Kaka, a veteran journalist who previously worked for the French state-funded broadcaster Radio France Internationale, and occasionally for The Times, has been missing since August. Colleagues said he was last seen after leaving the radio and television station he ran in Niamey, the capital of Niger.

"It looks very much like detention by state security agents," said Ousmane Diallo, a senior human rights researcher for Amnesty International. Niger's government has said nothing about Mr. Kaka's disappearance.

Last month, a court in Mali sentenced a newspaper director, Abdrahamane Kéita, to two years' imprisonment — he became the third journalist to be jailed there in recent months.

And in Burkina Faso last month, about 40 journalists completed a week-long military-style training, holding rifles and dressed in military fatigues. The government said that the aim was to ensure that the journalists became patriotic.

Sources: Houthi and Yemeni forces; Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (Houthi-controlled areas). SAMUEL GRANADOS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

One night of chaos on the Red Sea

How the Houthi militia rapidly advanced to seize the strait

HOUTHIS, FROM PAGE 1

On Sept. 3, the Iranian-backed group began a major ground offensive heading south. Six days later, in a single night of chaos and panic, the Houthis seized roughly 1,800 square miles of territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Here's where they went, according to witnesses to the events.

while the Houthis' victory was surprising to many, it was foreseeable.

MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

SAUDI PRESS AGENCY

For months, the U.S. military and intelligence agencies had warned Saudi Arabia about a resurgent threat from the Houthis and urging Saudi officials to unify the fractious forces of the Yemeni government, according to two senior American officials and one former senior American official.

In the lead-up to his defeat, General Saleh had reached out to Saudi and American officials, seeking greater support in holding back the Houthis, according to a Yemeni government official and two senior Yemeni military officers. The officers said he had asked the Saudis for air cover and the Americans for electronic jamming of Houthis communications. General Saleh received little from either country, the three officials said. Even some in his own government seemed disinclined to intervene.

U.S. officials offered assistance with planning and intelligence — including on Houthi troop movements — but they emphasized that their aid was limited and would not include airstrikes, the current and former U.S. officials said.

It is unclear why Saudi Arabia, equipped with American fighter jets and bombs, did not step in more intensively on its own. The Saudi government did not respond to a request for comment, nor did the White House.

The Houthis, who survived a U.S. bombing campaign last year, gained international attention during the war in Gaza by launching missiles and drones at Israel and vessels in the Red Sea. Holding territory along the Bab al-Mandab Strait would make it even easier for the group to disrupt shipping, Yemeni analysts say.

The Houthis' stunning triumph set off a cascade of events that has plunged Yemen into a war with global reverberations.

Whether any foreign military campaign could have held back the militia remains an open question. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi political official, attributed the Houthis' victory to progress made in developing their military capabilities throughout years of war. The Houthis are fighting "to liberate Yemen from occupation," he said, dismissing their foes as Saudi "mercenaries."

Two Yemeni government soldiers interviewed by The New York Times said they ultimately blamed their own feckless leaders for their defeat.

It was just after sundown on Sept. 9 when everything crumbled, according to one of their comrades.

He recalled how he had been stationed with other soldiers outside Mokha, a historic port city near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, when they received reports of Houthi fighters advancing from multiple directions. Suddenly, their communications went dark, he said, severing contact with other units. Then they heard shouting.

"Retreat! Retreat! Retreat!" he recalled his comrades yelling. "The Houthis are already here!"

They turned and fled for their lives.

REBELS ON THE RISE

REBELS ON THE RISE The Houthis' recent conquest belies their simpler origins. The group began in the 1990s as a religious movement focused on Zaydism, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Its leaders later mounted an armed rebellion against Yemen's government, saying that they were battling corruption and foreign influence.

Scholars debate when Iran began supporting them, but the Houthis eventually become a key Iranian ally.

In 2014, they took over Yemen's capital, Sanaa, routing the government and starting a civil war. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began a disastrous military campaign to restore the government. Hundreds of thousands of people died from violence, hunger and disease. The Houthis survived, cementing their hold on northern Yemen.

After a truce in 2022, the Houthis used the lull in fighting to become stronger and more self-sufficient, expanding their arsenal, analysts say.

The Yemeni government did not. During the war, it had become increasingly fragmented and weak, beholden to its Saudi and Emirati patrons — who were often at odds with each other.

"The Yemeni government is basically a fiction at this point," said Gregory Johnsen, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "They spend more time fighting one another than they do the Houthis."

One of the key players in this government was General Saleh. The nephew of Yemen's former authoritarian leader, he had made plentiful enemies over the years as he seesawed from one alliance to another — siding with the Houthis, then joining the government.

In Mokha, with Emirati backing, he formed his own armed faction. His soldiers, around 50,000 of them, served as a bulwark against the Houthis pushing south toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Then, in January, the Emirates withdrew from Yemen amid a feud with Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials consolidated their control over the government's many factions. Once again, General Saleh found himself with a new sponsor: Saudi Arabia.

THE OFFENSIVE BEGINS

When the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, the Houthis appeared willing at first to sit out the war. But behind the scenes, Yemen's truce had become a brittle stalemate.

Talks aimed at a long-term peace deal — from which the Houthis hoped to gain greater authority and access to oil revenue — had stalled. Poverty in Houthi territory was dire, putting pressure on the group. They blamed Saudi Arabia and bristled at Saudi restrictions on Yemeni airspace.

The tensions came to a head in July. The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Sanaa's airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. They declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, which had become a crucial route for oil exports during the Iran war.

Above, a ceremony organized by the Houthi authorities last month to mark the 12th anniversary of the militia's takeover of Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Left, Houthis who had been prisoners in the city of Mokha arriving in Sanaa. They were freed when the Houthis overtook Mokha. Below left, Lt. Gen. Tareq Saleh of Yemen, left, with Lt. Gen. Fahd bin Hamad Al-Salman, a Saudi commander, in a photograph released by the Saudi government.

They launched missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia, and the kingdom launched airstrikes in Yemen.

This escalation dovetailed with the interests of Iran, where officials were pushing to widen the war with the United States, raising its costs for President Trump.

Clashes reignited inside Yemen, and Houthi officials accused Saudi Arabia and their Yemeni allies of preparing a new offensive against them. Quietly, the militia readied its own plans.

On Aug. 9, the Houthis began to shower Mokha with missiles and drones, damaging the port and seeking to cut off the city's supply line from the sea, according to two Yemeni military officers.

Then, on Sept. 3, the Houthis began a huge ground offensive.

A PUSH TOWARD THE COAST

A 39-minute video released by the Houthis, which they said had been filmed during fighting for control of the Red Sea coast, shows their militiamen scaling rugged mountains on foot and waving guns in jubilation. The video, which The Times was not able to independently verify, also shows the bodies of what appear to be Yemeni government fighters slumped inside vehicles. At the end, a toothless Houthis fighter vows to “pursue the enemy into their very lairs.”

For more than five days, the government forces held off the militia, battling in the mountains above Mokha. Eventually, the Houthis were able to push forward, with an onslaught of missiles, drones and shelling. Saudi Arabia carried out only minimal airstrikes to assist its Yemeni allies, according to the two Yemeni military officers.

On the evening of Sept. 9 and into the next morning, the government forces collapsed. In a flurry of confusion, they beat a rapid and disorganized retreat. The Houthis seized a major military camp in the foothills east of Mokha — leaving their enemies on the coastal plain exposed and vulnerable.

Instead of reorganizing, the government's soldiers withdrew all the way to the southern city of Aden, handing the entire Red Sea coast, including an island inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait, to the Houthis.

Overnight, Yemen's government had lost roughly 1,800 square miles (4,700 square kilometers) of territory. At least 500 of General Saleh's fighters were killed and more than 1,500 wounded, according to a statement by his group. The Houthi death toll is unknown.

SCATTERED AND WOUNDED

Soon after Mokha fell, General Saleh and several of his comrades flew to the Saudi capital, Riyadh, according to one of the Yemeni government officials and two of the military officers. There, they decamped to a five-star hotel.

One of the military officers, who is close to General Saleh, told a Times reporter that he was now focused on regrouping his forces and treating the wounded.

Eventually, there will be an investigation into what went wrong, he said.

In Yemen, General Saleh's soldiers have scattered. Some were left stranded outside Aden, after fighters from other factions — ostensibly their allies — barred them from the city, according to the officer close to General Saleh and another soldier. Speaking by phone from their makeshift encampment, that soldier said that they had gone days without food.

In public statements, the Houthis sought to reassure the international community that they posed no threat to maritime security — only to Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest exporters of oil.

As oil prices surged above \$100 a barrel, the Houthis began pushing to expand their territory further, promising to “liberate” all of Yemen.

On Sunday, the Yemeni government's leader, Rashad al-Alimi, declared a full-blown war against the militia.

For Yemeni civilians, already facing dire poverty and hunger, the war's return portends deeper suffering. More than 180,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks, often piling onto pickups and motorcycles as they rushed to escape.

"The moment felt like doomsday, with everyone looking out for themselves," said Hassan Sughair, who fled from a town near Mokha. "We did not even say goodbye to our neighbors, and we do not know what happened to them."

Vivian Nereim reported from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Saeed Al-Batati from al-Mukalla, Yemen; and Shuaib Almosawa from Sanaa, Yemen. Mohammed Ali Kalfood contributed reporting from Hudaydah, Yemen; Eric Schmitt from Washington; and Aric Toler from Kansas City.

Ukraine claws back territory in the Donbas

UKRAINE, FROM PAGE 1 to conduct battlefield surveillance, said Lt. Col. Petro Horbatenko of the Third Army Corps, which led the counteroffensive.

Ukrainian troops also focused on eliminating elite Russian drone pilots, employing signals intelligence to find and attack their positions and shelters. In places where Russia used drones guided by fiber-optic cables, scouts traced physical line spools back to launch sites.

A third element of the Ukrainian preparations involved mines, Colonel Horbatenko said. Ukraine used advanced robotic mine removal systems to clear paths for its troops, he said. It also saturated Russian supply routes with mines laid by drones.

Once the stage was finally set, Ukraine began its offensive.

Behind the front lines, ground-based drones that Ukraine had dropped from the air went on the attack with explosives and machine guns, trying to sow chaos in the Russian rear. At the same time, Ukraine pushed forward along the front in armored vehicles in an effort to clear Russian positions bunker by bunker, commanders said.

The armored vehicles, whose battlefield deployment has waned because of their vulnerability to drones, were protected by enhanced reactive armor. Such armor uses controlled explosions to repel advancing drones, commanders said.

Ukrainian soldiers said the Russians, caught by surprise, often deployed reinforcements to areas where Ukrainian forces had already advanced, leading to ambushes.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that more than 5,000 Russian troops had been killed in the operation so far, and that an additional 250 had been captured. The New York Times could not independently verify those figures. Ukraine does not release data on its own casualties.

The biggest movement on the front before Operation Vivaldi was a Russian breakthrough last year. In the spring and summer of 2025, Russia broke Ukrainian defensive lines around Pokrovsk and surged forward several miles west into open terrain toward Dobropillia.

Both sides have tried to find a way to restore movement on a largely deadlocked battlefield.

The advance threatened to let Russia cut Ukraine's access to a crucial highway and to envelop the fortress belt cities — so called because Ukraine has erected heavy defenses around them — from the southwest. Seeking to contain the breach, Ukraine raced some of its best brigades to the area.

Early this year, Moscow's forces captured Pokrovsk. They continued to advance slowly to the north in the months that followed. But Kyiv's forces eventually stabilized their defenses, halting Russia short of its strategic objectives, according to Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts.

Russia is determined to regain momentum, Ukrainian commanders say, and continues to pour hundreds of troops into assaults every day. As the attacks and counterattacks continue, the area remains one of the most hotly contested sectors of the front.

Lt. Col. Kyrylo Dubrovskyi, a commander in the First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, which has led the defense of the area, said that the integration of a digital battlefield management system known as Delta was crucial in blunting Russia's advance.

The software, he said, made it possible to “organize real-time information exchange and to detect and neutralize enemy assault groups.”

Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation, one of Ukraine's biggest donors to the military, said that new technology, mass drone production and better coordination all contributed to a more effective defense. Among the advances are the robotic ground vehicles that Ukraine has used in tens of thousands of missions across the front.

Russian advances largely depend on infiltration tactics. Individual soldiers or small teams move on foot across what is known as the kill zone — a miles-wide stretch saturated with reconnaissance and attack drones. Once behind Ukrainian fortifications, troops gather, wait and then strike.

The infiltration strategy has resulted in an ever-growing gray zone where troops from both sides are present and control is not clear-cut. The two sides fight over individual tree lines, buildings, roads and logistical routes, said Col. Oleksandr Rashevsky, commander of the “Liut” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police of Ukraine.

"There is no simple front in the Donbas today where it is enough to draw a single line on a map and say, 'Up to this point, one side controls the territory, and beyond it, the other,'" Colonel Rashevsky said.

Liubov Sholudko and Dzvinka Pinchuk contributed reporting.

Symphony rehearses at closed Kennedy Center

WASHINGTON

The Kennedy Center is the only home for the National Symphony Orchestra, shown performing there, left, in January. Barriers obscure the front of the building, above, which President Trump has threatened to tear down. It is closed for renovation.
ELIZABETH FRANTZ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
CAROLINE GUTMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Musicians are practicing in a building Trump says could fall on their heads

BY ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON

The shuttered John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington is a deadly place. Just ask President Trump.

This week he said it was “a great danger to anyone who walks inside.” Last month he said that a security guard had narrowly avoided “certain death” after a storm brought down a large piece of ceiling plaster, injuring no one. The center, he said, is in a “virtual state of collapse.”

And yet on most weekday mornings, 100-odd members of the National Symphony Orchestra arrive for rehearsals in the shell of their former home. This week they are rehearsing in the center's main concert hall for upcoming performances in the Maryland and Virginia suburbs of Prokofiev's Symphony No. 5, Haydn's Symphony No. 85 ("La Reine") and Stravinsky's Scènes de Ballet.

The theme, as advertised on their website, is “music that finds hope and vitality in the face of adversity.”

So far, none of the musicians have encountered collapsing concrete garage decks, falling 2,500-pound (1,100-kilogram) roof sections or “electrical explosions” — risks the center’s management says lurk everywhere.

"We're just happy to work," a violinist said last week, while hustling into the building through a parking lot entrance. The violinist, and all other musicians interviewed as they entered the building, asked not be named for fear of retaliation against the orchestra, which still has financial ties to the Kennedy Center.

One musician expressed the hope that her colleagues would “shut up” and focus on music, not politics.

Another said that the orchestra's presence in the building reinforced the view by some former employees that the administration's portrayal of the building's problems have been exaggerated.

A Kennedy Center spokesman, P.J. Elliott, said this week that the concert hall was perfectly safe for the musicians but not for the public. The hall “is not a restricted area to essential staff and N.S.O.

musicians," he said in a statement. "Musicians can rehearse in it safely during the closure." He did not explain why.

The development is the latest in the saga of Mr. Trump's takeover of the center. Briefly: Less than a month into his second term, the president purged the Kennedy Center board of Biden-era appointees, installed allies who made him chairman, then announced that the

While the drama plays out, one of America's premier orchestras still needs a place to practice for its 2026-27 season.

place would close for two years of renovations. Democratic lawmakers on the board said it was an excuse to avoid the humiliation of plummeting ticket sales and fleeing artists.

In December, Mr. Trump put his name on the center, a living memorial to a slain president, but a judge ordered it off. When he was again denied last month, the president decreed that the renovation would not begin until courts allowed his name on the building front. He followed with a threat to tear the entire place down.

While the drama plays out, one of America's premier orchestras still needs a place to practice for its 2026-27 season, with concerts now in six different places across the region. They and the center's Opera House Orchestra, which now performs in an annex called The Reach, are the only paid performances that have survived Mr. Trump's takeover. Local music lovers call it a tribute to the orchestras' resilience.

One morning last week, the musicians drove up to a center underground parking garage, Lot A, their instrument cases riding shotgun. They parked their cars and headed through a door with a paper sign taped on it that said “NSO This Way.” At one point the orchestra's conductor, Gianandrea Noseda, glided up carrying a garment bag and paused to hug staff members holding the door.

Matt Floca, the center's Trump-appointed director, said in reports to the board and the media this year that “moisture infiltration has caused corrosion and weakening of the concrete deck throughout the garages. Hundreds of compromised areas have been identified.”

But Mr. Elliott, the center's spokesman, said the musicians follow "routes assessed as safe by facilities and management" to the main concert hall. The unsafe areas, he added, are "off limits." The center continues to rent out its parking garage by the day and month.

David Z. Seide, a lawyer representing the former employees, said in an interview that the orchestra's rehearsals "confirm what we've been saying all along. The building is not a threat to public health and safety."

"This is part of a pattern of the government routinely saying one thing and doing another," said Norm Eisen and Kyle Freeny, lawyers representing Representative Joyce Beatty, Democrat of Ohio and an ex officio Kennedy Center board member, who sued Mr. Trump to keep the building open and his name off its front.

Mr. Floca has said that the closure is temporary and is reassessed weekly. Critics, including congressional Democrats, question how things got to this point when Congress appropriated \$257 million for a full renovation more than a year ago, and pays annually for maintenance. They speculate that the week-by-week closure is a tactic to circumvent a judge's order that the center remain open.

After Mr. Trump put his name on the building, the orchestra's audiences fell by as much as half. The composer Philip Glass withdrew his new symphony from a scheduled debut with the orchestra, and Béla Fleck, the Grammy-winning banjo player, pulled out of three performances. Its executive director, Jean Davidson, left in March, saying, "It's no secret that this has been a really hard year."

Amid an exodus of performers, audiences and donors, the Washington National Opera, also housed in the center since its opening, moved out. But the fates of the National Symphony Orchestra and the Kennedy Center are more deeply intertwined. The center oversees the orchestra's budget, topping it up when ticket sales and donations fall short, which amounted to about \$17 million this year.

In February, Mr. Trump began demanding the center close by early July, which would leave the orchestra homeless. The orchestra's budget request for 2026-27 languished for months without approval from the Kennedy Center board, preventing it from booking alternate venues.

Kennedy Center patrons formed Save Our Symphonies, a group supporting the orchestra and other center musicians in financial limbo. World-class performers volunteered to play in private homes, condominium lobbies and other local spots, pausing to explain their situation to Washingtonians while taking care not to talk politics, grant media interviews or otherwise anger the president. The performances have netted them new fans and donors.

The orchestra still lacks an approved budget, but in August received a green light from the Kennedy Center board to book the current season. It announced the dates only weeks before the first performance.

The musicians last month signed a new, four-year contract. An enthusiastic crowd attended the season-opening celebration at the Music Center at Strathmore in North Bethesda, Md., cheering as the concert opened with the national anthem.

"It will be an interesting season," Mr. Noseda told the audience. "A bit tiring here and there, but also more exciting."

Trump aides in the Balkans

WASHINGTON

Campaign advisers assist pro-Russia government in small Bosnian territory

BY KENNETH P. VOGEL

As President Trump crisscrossed the United States last week, trying to help his party avoid a blowout in next month's midterm elections, two of his top political advisers were in the Balkans helping a pro-Russian government looking to tighten its grip on power.

James Blair and Chris LaCivita, who are leading a big-money midterm advertising campaign for the Trump political operation, spent some of the past few days in a small self-governing territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina called Republika Srpska ahead of its elections this past Sunday, according to four people familiar with their travels who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the Balkan work.

The engagement is the latest example of Trump advisers' profiting from far-right politicians abroad seeking favor from the U.S. president while bucking the international community.

Mr. Blair and Mr. LaCivita were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars each through a Washington-based law firm that was retained by Republika Srpska's government to provide counsel on voting issues, according to two of the people familiar with the engagement. They said the work was for the government and not the nationalist party that controls it, though they are essentially one and the same.

Under that party, Republika Srpska has aligned itself with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, while spending heavily to court Mr. Trump and his supporters.

Mr. Trump distanced himself on Wednesday from the advisers' work, writing on social media that Mr. LaCivita and Mr. Blair were "outside consultants" for his political operation. He said he did "not have any idea who else they work for but will, on reflection, ask them and, if there's a conflict, I will terminate them, immediately!"

MARKO DJURICA/REUTERS

Mr. Trump's allies have promoted the party's embrace of Christian conservatism and its resistance to joining the European Union. In the run-up to Sunday's elections, the party had warned that its hold on power could have been threatened by the debut of voting machines like those that Mr. Trump and his allies continue to falsely blame for his loss in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Some delays and technical issues were reported during voting on Sunday. But the nationalist party won convincingly.

In a victory speech on Sunday, Milorad Dodik, the party's leader and until recently the autocratic president of Republika Srpska, thanked Mr. Putin for his support and credited Mr. Trump's 2024 victory with creating a favorable political environment.

Mr. Trump distanced himself from the advisers' work.

The Republika Srpska government did not respond to requests for comment about the work or payments for it.

It is not uncommon for political consultants, lawyers and lobbyists with ties to U.S. presidents to offer their services to foreign governments and campaigns.

But it is notable that the trip to Republika Srpska, from which Mr. Blair and Mr. LaCivita returned on Monday, came as they were playing key roles in the Trump team's efforts to limit Democratic gains and preserve Republican control of Congress.

Mr. Blair, who was the political director of Mr. Trump's 2024 campaign, left his role as a deputy chief of staff at the White House in the spring to run MAGA Inc., the Trump-backed super PAC. Mr. LaCivita, the co-manager of Mr. Trump's 2024 campaign, is a senior adviser to MAGA Inc.

Alex Pfeiffer, a spokesman for MAGA Inc., declined to comment on the trip to the Balkans. But he said that during the travel, Mr. Blair and Mr. LaCivita remained fully engaged in the midterm effort of the PAC.

PHOTOGRAPHS ABOVE BY HAIYUN JIANG FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES Milorad Dodik, left, the leader of the party that controls the government of Republika Srpska, got advice from two aides to President Trump, Chris LaCivita, above left, and James Blair. Mr. Dodik's party won convincingly in recent elections.

"James and Chris hosted a team call with race captains on Saturday morning to go over recent survey data," Mr. Pfeiffer said in a text message.

The two men are not the only Trump allies who have accepted payment to help the Srpska government.

Lobbyists and operatives with connections to Mr. Trump and his Republican allies have been paid more than \$4 million by the government of Republika Srpska since the beginning of last year, according to records filed with the Justice Department. The influence campaign scored a major victory late last year when the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Mr. Dodik, his family and his aides.

The sanctions were first imposed on Mr. Dodik in the final days of the Obama administration.

They remained in effect during the first Trump administration and were supplemented during the Biden administration.

They were punishment for Mr. Dodik's having undermined the U.S.-backed Dayton Accords peace agreement. Signed in 1995, it ended bloody sectarian fighting in the 1990s between Bosnian Muslims, Serbs and Croats in the former Yugoslavia. It enshrined Republika Srpska, which is overwhelmingly Serbian and Christian, as one of two political divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

And it created a tripartite presidency that governs Bosnia. It consists of a Serb seat, which Mr. Dodik's party retained during Sunday's elections, as well as a seat for Muslims, who are known as Bosniaks, and Croats.

Mr. Dodik has been the dominant political figure in Srpska for decades. Once considered a moderate who would deescalate sectarian tensions, he largely fell out of favor in the international community as he increasingly embraced Serbian nationalism and Moscow.

Mr. Dodik's allies have sought to cast him as a sort of Trump of the Balkans.

He was convicted by the Bosnian court system for disobeying the international entity overseeing the Dayton agreement, resulting in his removal as president last year and a ban from holding office.

But the support of Trump allies and the lifting of the sanctions has helped Mr. Dodik and his party weather domestic and international pressures that could have weakened him, said Adnan Cerimagic, an analyst at the European Stability Initiative, a Berlin-based think tank.

"Not only did it provide him legitimacy with the voters of his party — it has also strengthened him politically against both inside and outside critics," said Mr. Cerimagic.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS
DENNY SIMMONS/THE TENNESSEAN, VIA REUTERS
In a handout photo, above left, South Carolina's death chamber in Columbia, including the electric chair, right, and a firing squad chair, left. Above right, emergency vehicles arrived at a prison in Nashville last week after the failed execution of Christa Pike.

Failed execution puts methods under scrutiny

Unsuccessful attempt to end Christa Pike's life has stirred a debate

BY NICHOLAS BOGEL-BURROUGHS

The failed execution of Christa Pike has spurred the resignation of Tennessee's prison chief, put Ms. Pike in critical condition and placed renewed attention on the methods by which capital punishment can be carried out.

The unsuccessful attempt to end Ms. Pike's life with a lethal injection infuriated the mother of her victim, a 19-year-old named Colleen Slemmer, who said the state had failed to deliver justice when two doses of pentobarbital left Ms. Pike alive.

Most modern executions in the United States — those that took place after 1976, when the Supreme Court ended a nearly 10-year moratorium — have been carried out by such injections, sometimes using a single drug and sometimes a combination. Lethal injection was introduced as a more humane alternative to hanging or the electric chair, although some who oppose the death penalty argue that it brings the veneer of a medical procedure to what can be a painful death.

As pressure on drug companies and legal challenges to capital punishment have made purchasing drugs for lethal injections more difficult, some states have authorized additional methods. Some, like nitrogen hypoxia, are new, while others, such as the firing squad and electric chair, hark back to earlier eras.

The United States was among 17 countries to carry out the death penalty last year, according to Amnesty International. Twenty-seven states still have the death penalty on the books, although only 16, plus the federal government, have carried out an execution in the past decade.

Recent polls have shown that a majority of Americans support capital punishment, though that support has declined in recent decades.

In Tennessee, Senator Marsha Blackburn, who is the Republican candidate for governor, has called for using the electric chair more often. Death penalty opponents — including the Democrat running against her — have used the botched execution of Ms. Pike to call for halting capital punishment altogether.

This week, Ms. Pike awoke in a Nashville hospital, shackled to a bed. Her condition, disclosed on Wednesday after a court hearing, remained severe. She has a blood clot in one arm and pneumonia, and had not eaten — she was unable to swallow when her lawyers saw her. She could not move her arms, and her hands had swollen to resemble inflated surgical gloves, said one lawyer, Randy Spivey.

Jonathan Groner, a retired professor of clinical surgery at Ohio State University who has studied the death penalty, said he believes states want executions to look as much like medical procedures as possible, in part to avoid turning off the public.

"If a lethal injection goes smoothly, it looks just like outpatient surgery," Dr. Groner said.

As states seek to carry out death sentences, they have weighed the particulars of various methods, including the potential for problems in carrying out the execution and the impact on public opinion.

LETHAL INJECTIONS

About 89 percent of the executions since 1976 were carried out by lethal injection, according to the Death Penalty Information Center, which tracks executions.

The first was carried out by Texas in 1982, when Charles Brooks Jr. was killed at a prison in Huntsville for his role in the murder of a mechanic, David Gregory.

Death penalty opponents have used the botched execution of Ms. Pike to call for halting capital punishment altogether.

In Ms. Pike's case last week, experts said the lethal drug might have entered tissues around the places where the executioners inserted the needles, rather than her bloodstream. That could have harmed her, but left her alive because not enough of the drug was in her circulatory system to kill her.

Even in 1982, effectively inserting an intravenous line was a known challenge. The Texas prison system's medical director said he had personally checked Mr. Brooks's veins on the morning of the execution.

Since then, states and the federal government have experimented with mixtures of drugs as they have carried out nearly 1,500 more lethal injections.

The federal government used a three-drug protocol of a barbiturate, a muscle relaxant and a deadly amount of potassium chloride when carrying out three executions from 2001 to 2003. When President Trump revived federal executions in his first term, the Justice Department used a single drug, pentobarbital, the same barbiturate Tennessee used last week.

ELECTRIC CHAIR

Before lethal injections, electrocution was the most common method of execution.

America's use of the electric chair stretches back to 1890, when William Kemmler was put to death at a prison in Central New York for killing his partner, Matilda Ziegler.

That electrocution did not go smoothly, with the prisoner making noises after he was supposed to have been fatally shocked. He was eventually pronounced dead, but one doctor involved predicted — incorrectly — that the method would not be used again.

Instead, the chair continued to be used even after lethal injection was introduced. In the past 50 years, at least 163 people have been executed by electric chair, with the most recent taking place in Tennessee in 2020.

Several electrocutions have led to disturbing scenes, including prisoners who caught on fire.

Tennessee allows prisoners who were sentenced before 1999 to choose the chair. Virginia has also used the electric chair as recently as 2013, though the state has since abolished the death penalty.

DEADLY GASES

The latest method of execution in the United States is nitrogen gas, which replaces oxygen in a breathing mask and suffocates the prisoner. This method was pioneered by Alabama in 2024, when it executed Kenneth Smith, who was one of three men convicted in the stabbing murder of Elizabeth Dorlene Sennett in 1988.

Alabama said that other states could mimic its protocols. So far, only Louisiana has, executing one man that way last year.

Alabama and Louisiana prison officials said their executions had followed protocol, although several witnesses reported being disturbed by prisoners' convulsions after the gas began flowing.

Alabama has used the method on six other men since Mr. Smith's execution. But in June, the Supreme Court blocked the state from using it on another inmate after a lower court found that the state's protocol was more likely than not to inflict cruel and unusual punishment. The state has since returned to using lethal injection.

Some states have employed other gases to kill prisoners, including North Carolina and Arizona, which used cyanide in 1998 and 1999.

California, which has not executed anyone since 2006, also used gas in two executions in the 1990s.

FIRING SQUAD

Five states authorize firing squads, though only two states have deployed them in modern times. South Carolina executed three people last year by firing squad, while Utah last executed someone by firing squad in 2010.

A law went into effect this year in Idaho that makes the firing squad the state's primary method of execution. It follows the state's failed execution of Thomas Creech by lethal injection in 2024.

In April, the Trump administration authorized the use of the firing squad in federal executions. Mississippi and Oklahoma both allow firing squads, but only if other methods are unavailable.

Many people consider the firing squad to be the most effective method, though it is inherently bloody — and not without problems. Lawyers for one man killed by firing squad in South Carolina last year accused the shooters of missing the target on his heart, prolonging his death.

THE GALLOWS

Common in some of the few countries that carry out capital punishment, hanging has not been used in the United States since 1996, when Delaware executed a man with the rope.

That was only the third hanging in the United States since 1965. The other two were carried out by Washington State in the early 1990s.

In earlier hangings, errors in the length of the rope or the mechanism of the hanging led to people dying a slow death or being decapitated.

Democrats try to make the most of a limited war chest

A LATE INFUSION OF CASH

The number of seats Democrats win will affect the ability of Representative Hakeem Jeffries, above, to govern his party should he become speaker. Democrats are making a big play in a Philadelphia district to unseat Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, below.
TIERNEY L. CROSS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

ERIC LEE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

LANGHORNE, PA.

pensive, and Mr. Fitzpatrick was seen as too hard to unseat.

Party must weigh big bets to try to oust a handful of entrenched Republicans

BY SHANE GOLDMACHER

The House battleground map is increasingly filled with alluring possibilities for Democrats as President Trump's support has cratered. But with their financial resources limited, one question keeps coming up as Democratic strategists puzzle over where to invest during the crucial final four weeks of the campaign.

Do they seek to rent — or own?

Democrats are trying to figure out where their money goes furthest. Are they better off seeking to run up their numbers by competing in less expensive races and for open seats in Republican areas? If they do, they might struggle to hold onto many of those seats in a couple of years, when there is less likelihood of a Democratic wave.

Or is it a better bet to spend more and go all-in to try to oust a handful of entrenched Republican incumbents who represent more Democratic areas? That path would be difficult, but if it succeeds, it could put those seats in the Democratic column for a longer time.

For all the party's current bullishness, Democrats hold zero seats in districts that Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024.

“Obviously we want the strongest majority possible in 2026,” Representative Suzan DelBene of Washington, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview. “But also with an eye toward 2028.”

Exhibit A of the Democratic conundrum is Pennsylvania's First District, where Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is the only Republican in the House seeking re-election who was able to win in a district that Mr. Trump lost all three times he ran, in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

In recent elections, Democrats did not fully try to vanquish Mr. Fitzpatrick, whose district includes Bucks County, the swingy Philadelphia suburban area, and a slice of Montgomery County. The Philadelphia media market was too ex-

But the party is making its biggest play there in years in the campaign's final sprint.

Bob Harvie, the Democrat who is challenging Mr. Fitzpatrick, said in an interview that he got a call from the Democratic Party's campaign arm last week informing him the group was planning to plunge \$900,000 into his race. The top Democratic super PAC, the House Majority PAC, has reserved more than \$6 million in television time on top of that, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact.

The decisions on where to spend are being made day by day and district by district, according to interviews with more than a half dozen Democratic strategists involved in the discussions, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private strategy.

Winning the majority of House seats remains the most vital task, they said — even if doing so risks seeming to waste money in some must-win seats. But there are different ideas about which races, beyond the core battlegrounds, provide the most return on their investment.

"The map is larger than the bank account can sustain," said Ian Russell, who previously served as national political director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

How many seats Democrats ultimately win will have repercussions for the ability of Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York to govern his party if he becomes speaker next year. But the types of seats that Democrats carry will also shape the party's political strategy into the future.

BATTLING A REPUBLICAN CENTRIST

Mr. Fitzpatrick, a former agent with the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, is a throwback to a disappearing brand of moderate Northeastern Republican. He has the support of top labor unions, gun-control groups and environmental organizations that typically support Democrats — and signs promoting them at intersections throughout Bucks County.

Mr. Fitzpatrick's latest ad hails him as the "most independent" lawmaker in the nation and features a carousel of rare-for-a-Republican endorsements, from groups including the LGBT Unity

Fund and an arm of the Humane Society.

"The parties are the worst thing that our country has right now," Mr. Fitzpatrick said in an interview at a Jewish deli in Langhorne, Pa., on Monday. Mr. Fitzpatrick said that he hadn't been to a House Republican conference meeting this entire Congress and that his family's bipartisan brand — his brother served in the House before him — runs deep.

"People know us around here," he said. "There's no poll that has us down."

Yet he has already had to spend more than \$3 million on ads — far more than Mr. Harvie and his allies to date — and the race remains tight. National Republicans have not spent big or reserved air-time in the closing weeks.

"I think that they think that we're OK here," he said. "I think they think that, but that's a gamble on their part."

Democratic strategists believe that if they can dislodge Mr. Fitzpatrick now, the seat will lean Democratic into the future.

After all, Mr. Trump lost only three seats in 2024 that were held by Republicans at the beginning of the current cycle, including Mr. Fitzpatrick's. This fall, Democrats are aiming to flip all three, and on Monday, one of them, in Nebraska, seemed safe enough in hand that a Democratic group began to pull its advertising.

Pennsylvania's First, however, remains a battleground.

“Where we’re at is very, very, very, very hard to flip,” Sharon Bastone, 47, a Democratic activist in Upper Hanover Township, said while attending a Democratic barbecue on Sunday that was attended by Mr. Harvie. “But I think this is our year to do it. If we don’t do it this year, it’s not going to happen.”

At the barbecue, one attendee passed along the good news to Mr. Harvie that a big endorsement sign from the A.F.L.-C.I.O. for his rival, Mr. Fitzpatrick, had been wrapped around a truck so tightly that it was illegible.

At a moment when many Democrats are creating an image independent of the national Democratic brand, Mr. Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, seemed unconcerned about being aligned with the party. He told one voter on Sunday that he would support statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., if they wanted it. And he invoked both Barbra Streisand, the songwriter and Democratic activist, and Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, in his remarks at the barbecue.

The Harvie campaign is running a new ad saying that “Congress changed Fitzpatrick” and highlighting key recent votes on which he was aligned with Mr. Trump. The Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Mr. Harvie this month after backing Mr. Fitzpatrick in 2018 and 2020.

“Brian is an independent when his party tells him he's allowed to be,” Mr. Harvie said in an interview.

VULNERABLE DEMOCRATS

Now is decision time for national Democrats.

Party strategists are eyeing potential new spending to take out two Republicans in Ohio, Representative Mike Turner and Representative Mike Carey, and one in Michigan, Representative Bill Huizenga, and are spending more heavily in Wisconsin against Representative Bryan Steil.

All four represent seats Mr. Trump won by single digits in 2024.

Meanwhile, in Florida, private polls show a dead heat in the Miami district of Representative Maria Elvira Salazar — a seat that Mr. Trump carried by 15 percentage points just two years ago — but the cost of advertising in the Miami media market could prove prohibitive.

At the same time, some Democrats are worried that Republicans could do the same thing to Democratic incumbents in swing seats.

Republican groups are spending millions of dollars to target lawmakers such as Representative Tom Suozzi of New York and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington in a push that has been mostly unanswered by national Democratic groups.

Mr. Suozzi, for instance, has been opposed by \$6.9 million in outside spending, with only about \$340,000 in support. Mr. Jeffries referred to the deluge this past weekend, calling it a “wild” waste of millions of dollars.

“Democrats need to make sure our eyes aren’t bigger than our stomachs and our aspirations aren’t bigger than our campaign accounts,” warned Phil Gardner, senior adviser at Blue Dog Action, a super PAC aligned with the moderate Blue Dog caucus, whose members Republicans are targeting.

He feared the party's spending on far- afield races in the final weeks. On Mon-day, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added six new candidates to the "red-to-blue" program

— the designation for top races — including two in districts that Mr. Trump carried by more than 20 percentage points in 2024.

Mr. Russell, the former D.C.C.C. strategist still involved in congressional races, said the climate could shift quickly this month, recalling the late convulsions of the 2016 campaign.

"Now is the fun part of the cycle where you decide where can you make a last-minute play to snatch a few extra seats," he said. "But you also have to be conscious that the political environment can change."

China's ‘self reliance’ upends trade with E.U.

BYD, a Chinese carmaker, at an auto show in Munich last year. Few industries illustrate China's manufacturing sophistication and capacity more clearly than automobiles.
FELIX SCHMITT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Beijing's production drive has resulted in a lopsided economic relationship

BY SUI-LEE WEE

To understand Europe's growing alarm over its trade deficit with China, consider a striking statistic: China now sends six containers of goods to Europe for every one it gets back.

That ratio has more than doubled in China's favor over the past five years as Beijing's drive for greater economic self-reliance has expanded the range of goods China produces at home instead of buying from abroad.

Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, cited those figures last month and provided a simple explanation for why.

"China makes everything," he said.

That is the dilemma confronting Europe as its trade deficit with China exceeds \$1 billion a day. European consumers and companies still want, and in many cases need, what Chinese factories produce. Increasingly, the reverse is not true.

"The Chinese are basically succeeding in self-reliance," said Joerg Wuttke, a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a Washington-based consultancy, and a former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. "What else do they want from us? They are producing everything in excess. And they are competitive left, right and center because of scale."

For years, Beijing has pursued self-reliance, partly as insurance against the possibility that tensions with the West could expose economic weak points. Over the past decade, China has poured resources into industries and technologies intended to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers.

The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe and the industrial overcapacity at the center of the trade dispute.

Mr. Eskelund has identified some of what those containers coming from China are carrying — household appliances, electronics, machinery, furniture, chemicals and textiles.

It was not always this way.

In the years after China joined the

World Trade Organization in 2001, its economic relationship with Europe was more complementary.

While China supplied Europe with the affordable consumer goods that kept many Europeans happy, Europe sold China industrial machinery, luxury goods and high-end automobiles for a rising middle class.

The relationship began to change as Chinese manufacturing became more sophisticated and moved up the industrial ladder.

Chinese production of solar panels, aluminum and steel surged, pushing down global prices and battering European producers. At first, many Europeans regarded the fallout as confined to a few industries. At the same time, China remained an enticing growth market for European companies.

Then, China stepped on the gas.

In 2015, Beijing issued an industrial strategy called “Made in China 2025.” It set out China's ambitions to dominate advanced manufacturing, targeting sectors including robotics, electric vehicles and green technology. One result was enormous amounts of state-backed funding directed toward favored industries.

"Everyone still kind of reassured themselves that China could do the lower-value-add part of everything and that they would retain the higher-value part," said Agatha Kratz, a partner who specializes in E.U.-China relations at Rhodium Group, a research firm.

Even as Europe remained broadly open to Chinese exports, European companies faced barriers inside China.

"As an ambassador there, I was tired of asking the Chinese to let our companies do the same things in China that their companies did in Spain," said Rafael Dezcallar Mazarredo, who served as the Spanish ambassador to China for six years until 2024. "They nodded politely, and they did nothing."

Under Xi Jinping, China's top leader, the country expanded its industrial aspirations. Beijing promoted a strategy called "Little Giants," unleashing small and medium-size enterprises to build technology and address vulnerabilities in domestic supply chains. Another strategy paired greater economic self-reliance at home with continued access to foreign markets for Chinese exports.

To many European analysts, the direction was clear. "It's out-Germanying Germany," said Andrew Small, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Few industries illustrate the transformation more clearly than automobiles.

The Chinese government funneled at least \$231 billion to the car sector from 2009 to 2023, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which described the figure as “a conservative estimate.”

More than 200 domestic electric vehicle manufacturers appeared in the Chinese market. The resulting production boom eventually exceeded China's own demand, causing a brutal price war and pushing brands to look abroad for growth.

By 2023, some of Germany's biggest automakers — nearly all of them with significant operations in China — were issuing profit warnings. Around the same time, China's E.V. makers started expanding into Europe.

When the European Union imposed additional tariffs on electric vehicles, Chinese carmakers increased exports of hybrid cars, which now make up a large share of China's exports to Europe.

When German media reported last month that Volkswagen would close four major plants in Germany, the announcement marked a turning point. German automakers had long been among the strongest opponents of measures that might provoke Beijing, urging restraint against tougher European trade policies.

Now, the German automotive industry association said it supported tariffs, opening the door for Germany to adopt a harder stance against China.

A decade ago, Mr. Eskelund said, "China made the pie bigger for everyone." Now it's taking market share in Europe at a time when European companies in China face a slower economy and fierce domestic competition.

Mr. Dezcallar, the former Spanish ambassador, said Europe still had some leverage over China because of its market of 500 million high-spending consumers.

Beijing also has reason to avoid letting its economic relationship with Europe deteriorate to the level of its feud with the United States.

"It is not in their interest," he said, "to have two open fronts at the same time."

How India came to dominate in generic drugs

HARSHA VADLAMANI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
Above left, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories' main campus in Hyderabad, India, makes more than 100 generic drugs, 75 percent of which go to patients in the United States. Below left, Piramal Global Pharma employees in Digwal. The facility they work at begins production of a lifesaving medicine that is flown to Piramal in Riverview, Mich., above right.
EMILY ELCONIN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

EMILY ELCONIN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
HARSHA VADLAMANI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
EMILY ELCONIN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

HYDERABAD, INDIA

Cheap labor and expertise honed over decades help country excel in the sector

BY ALEX TRAVELLI

Most people have never heard of the F.T.O. U-3 factory in Hyderabad, India, but its products affect millions of Americans intimately.

Inside the sprawling facility, about 1,900 Indian workers for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories work around the clock to manufacture more than 100 generic drugs, including antihistamines, statins and antidepressants. Of the nearly one billion oral doses produced there each month, 75 percent go to patients in the United States.

"They are producing everything in excess. And they are competitive left, right and center because of scale."

The scale of India's pharmaceutical industry has made it a cornerstone of the global drug supply. In a high-volume, low-margin business, India's ability to make pills at a small fraction of what they would cost elsewhere has created an almost insurmountable hurdle for the United States, which is trying to bring that production home.

President Trump has said he wants to bring generic drug production back to America, using tariffs to pressure pharmaceutical companies.

In a July social media post, Mr. Trump said he planned to impose a 100 percent tariff on generic drugs starting in 2028, followed by a 200 percent tariff a year later, when his term will have expired. Generics account for 90 percent of drugs prescribed in the United States, and 40 percent of them are made in India.

When the United States imposed a new 100 percent tariff on certain pharmaceutical imports last week, it exempted generic drugs and many other products. Doctors and supply chain experts say taxing imported generics would raise costs, spur rationing and lead to shortages of crucial drugs.

Even a 200 percent tariff on generic drugs might not erase India's advantage. Sudarshan Jain, secretary general of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance, estimates that most tablets and liquids made in India would cost at least four times as much to produce in the United States.

India got its start in generics in the 1970s by prioritizing affordable drugs for its huge and mostly poor population at a time when Western multinational drug companies did not. For decades, India refused to recognize drug patents, while its manufacturers patented processes they devised to reverse-engineer medicines sold in wealthier markets.

By the time India's patent law was brought into accordance with World Trade Organization standards in 2005, its companies had become experts at processing complex drugs and producing them for much of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Around the same time, Americans started embracing generic drugs. By 2004, they started to account for more than half of prescriptions filled in the United States.

The greatest profits come from patented drugs, so “in the U.S., once it goes out of patent, you forget about it,” Mr. Jain said.

"But in India, the entrepreneurs keep on working and developing it, and at these volumes, you get better at making it," he said.

That business is poised to grow. Over the next five to seven years, Mr. Jain said, 55 major patents worth \$300 billion a year will expire in the United States, widening the pipeline for Indian manufacturers.

India's advantage is not just expertise. Peter DeYoung, the American-born chief executive of Piramal Global Pharma in Mumbai, runs more than a dozen factories, including in Europe and the United States. In America, he said, labor is the highest cost "by a wide margin," followed by energy and materials. In India, it's the reverse: Materials are the greatest cost and workers the least.

India has other advantages. Mr. De-Young said factories and processes that took four years to set up in the United States, Europe or Israel — home to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, the biggest generics maker — could be completed within a year in India. Customized equipment can be made in half the time it would take in Germany or Austria.

For years, relying so heavily on Indian factories had a downside: quality. A series of scandals beginning in the early 2000s tarnished the industry's reputation. The most notorious offender, Ranbaxy, sold subpar drugs and lied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration about its processes before going under more than a decade ago.

A book about the scandal has since become required reading for many industry managers. Its epilogue said that as recently as 2019, the F.D.A. still announced Indian factory inspections days in advance, giving operators time to conceal shoddy practices.

That is no longer the case, at least among big manufacturers. Dr. Reddy's underwent a surprise inspection two weeks after Mr. Trump declared a tariff on generics. Piramal said its factories, including those in Digwal, three hours west of Hyderabad, have undergone 415 inspections since 2012, including 49 from the F.D.A., with zero serious violations detected.

Piramal makes generics, but even more of its business is contract manufacturing for clients that hold drug patents. Keeping smaller factories in the United States makes it easier for some customers to keep tabs on production.

That geographic spread points to another problem with trying to produce all pharmaceuticals locally. Modern drug supply chains don't divide neatly into things made in America and things imported from elsewhere.

One sealed barrel in Piramal's main Digwal storeroom was made in India, shipped to Singapore and back, and bore the brand of a Japanese company with an American address.

Another drug, which Mr. DeYoung would describe only as a lifesaving medicine to treat central nervous system conditions, begins its journey in Digwal, then travels by air to Piramal's facility in Riverview, Mich.

Riverview, a quiet suburb of Detroit with broad lawns and white steeples, is a far cry from Digwal. But specialized machines in Piramal's Indian and American labs collaborate to turn the medicine into its final form.

There are good reasons to pair facilities in India with plants in their destination market, Mr. DeYoung said. Some drugs require especially dangerous chemicals, including some controlled by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Others, like sevoflurane, a generic anesthetic Piramal makes in both India and the United States, must remain available even if international supply chains break down completely.

Which raises a more fundamental question than whether tariffs can force drug manufacturing back to America.

"So what problem are you trying to solve?" Mr. DeYoung asked about the prospect of a tariff on imported generics. Is it to bring back pharmaceutical jobs to American workers? Is it to safeguard supplies of vital medicines?

Even as Indian firms wrestle with the Trump administration's push to reduce its dependency on India, they are also grappling with their own reliance on another country for a critical part of the pharmaceutical supply chain.

Starting in the 1990s, China became the world's dominant manufacturer of the active ingredients that most drugs require. India is now trying to reclaim that ability. That, Mr. Jain said, creates an opportunity for the United States and India to work together, instead of pulling their pharmaceutical industries apart.

“Unless we work together with the U.S., we’ll be dependent on China” for ingredients, he said. That’s why, he added, it makes sense for American buyers “to stockpile from India” instead of making it in the United States “for six, seven or eight times the price.”

China is struggling to recruit foreign A.I. talent

Chinese A.I. companies like DeepSeek, based in Hangzhou, above, have made a name for themselves internationally, but China has had difficulty attracting foreign researchers.

U.S. holds research lead by employing scientists from around the world

BY ZEYI YANG

As the United States and China vie for A.I. dominance, the Trump administration has made it more difficult for companies to hire foreign researchers, while China has made recruiting the world's best scientists a national priority.

Over the past two years, China has flung open its doors to international researchers, introducing a visa for scientists and offering lucrative research grants.

Despite those efforts, foreigners are not coming.

Worse still for China's ambitions, the number of Chinese scientists working in the United States has increased rather than declined, according to a new study about global A.I. research.

For every 30 Chinese researchers in the United States working on artificial intelligence last year, only one in China made the opposite journey, according to the study, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank.

“Despite U.S.-China tensions, the number of Chinese-origin researchers working in the U.S. actually rose by four percentage points rather than declined” compared with three years ago, said Damien Ma, who led the study.

The study determined the flow of scientists around the world by examining research papers accepted by last year's NeurIPS, an academic conference focused on machine learning and computational neuroscience. Mr. Ma and his team analyzed where the papers' authors went to college, received graduate degrees and ended up working.

The results affirm the popular understanding that the United States and China are the two places where most frontier A.I. research is being produced. While China is failing to recruit foreign researchers, the study found, it is seeing a boon in retaining local talent, people who have risen though the domestic education system and are increasingly choosing not to seek work overseas.

The United States, on the other hand, maintains its lead by employing foreign researchers, many of whom previously emigrated from China, as well as India, South Korea and elsewhere.

The Carnegie study counts those researchers who migrated from one country to another, but it does not indicate when a researcher moved. One explanation for why the number of Chinese scientists working in America remains high is that they arrived before the Trump administration imposed restrictions on obtaining visas and cut research funding last year.

"There is a delay effect — the researchers in this study mostly made their decisions years ago to study or work here," said Yingyi Ma, a sociology professor at Syracuse University in up-state New York who studies Asian students in the United States. "The danger for the U.S. is a slow erosion of its appeal to attract talent that compounds over decades. By the time the effect shows up in the data, it is hard to reverse."

For years, Chinese scientists and their peers from around the world were drawn to the United States, which offered career opportunities at start-ups and ample academic funding. But China has gained significant ground in recent years as an alternative for A.I. researchers.

In 2022, only six of the top 30 institutions publishing papers at NeurIPS were based in China; last year, that number rose to 12. Peking University and Tsinghua University, two of China's top academic institutions, sat at the top of the chart, eclipsing American heavyweights like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University in California and Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania. Chinese researchers also made up 41 percent of the published authors at NeurIPS last year, eclipsing U.S. researchers, who stood at 34 percent.

Today, China has an abundance of workplaces for A.I. researchers, including well-funded universities, big tech companies and start-ups, said Kevin Xu, the founder of Interconnected Capital, a hedge fund that invests in A.I. technologies. As Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Moonshot repeatedly make names for themselves on the global stage, they also become more attractive to top talent.

"The fact that being able to work at DeepSeek gives you just as much professional prestige and future success as working at OpenAI is quite different from what we've observed five years ago, when the path was between working at Google versus Tencent," he said.

The ascendancy of Chinese companies might explain why a vast majority of Chinese A.I. researchers choose to remain in the country. But, Mr. Xu added, there's another reason some researchers remain in China: The government is unwilling to let them go.

For every 30 Chinese researchers in the United States working on A.I. last year, only one in China made the opposite journey.

This year, the Chinese government restricted the two founders of Manus, an A.I. start-up that was set to be acquired by Meta for \$2 billion, from leaving the country. Since then, travel by Chinese A.I. entrepreneurs and researchers — as well as by their spouses and children — has been further curtailed, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

While China is struggling to recruit foreign talent, it has made some gains in its effort to encourage Chinese researchers and executives abroad to return home.

The Chinese tech giant Tencent last year appointed Yao Shunyu, a former OpenAI researcher, as its chief A.I. scientist. The move was seen as one of the most notable examples of an A.I. researcher returning to China after having studied and worked in the West.

Despite China's new offers of visas and grant money, Silicon Valley still provides more attractive offers and investment opportunities than China for American researchers. Also, moving to a country with few immigrants and a different language is always going to be a challenge.

"For everybody else who's outside the walled garden, culturally or digitally, it's still very hard to break into," Mr. Xu said.

Fed's dilemma: Tech boom is immune to high rates

ANNA ROSE LAYDEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Left, construction at a Meta data center in El Paso. High interest rates have done little to slow A.I. development. Above, Kevin M. Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, has said he believes that the technology could ultimately help keep inflation in check.
PAUL RATJE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Immense A.I. buildout hinders the central bank's efforts to tame inflation

BY COLBY SMITH AND BEN CASSELMAN

The U.S. Federal Reserve has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of today's growth, and the price pressures that have followed in its wake, appears nearly immune to the higher interest rates that the central bank has begun to impose on the economy.

Companies' seeking to expand their artificial intelligence abilities have been undeterred by not only U.S. borrowing costs that have recently reached multi-decade highs, but also soaring costs for electricity, high bandwidth memory and other inputs that are crucial to continued growth.

The implications for the Fed are vast, if price pressures do not ease as many policymakers expect in the coming months. To return inflation to the Fed's 2 percent target, the central bank might need to tighten the screws on the U.S. economy more than otherwise would be the case to sufficiently slow down activity. The brunt of that adjustment will fall predominantly on industries more sensitive to higher rates, such as housing and the automotive sector, and in turn the people employed by the companies in those fields. Depending on how much the Fed ends up needing to choke off demand, the labor market, which is already starting to cool, could start to crack.

"The problem for the Fed is that there is usually a built-in correction mechanism in the U.S. economy in which interest rates rise and at some point, the rate-sensitive parts of the economy, led by housing, slow down hard, and that then propagates to the rest of the economy," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays.

"But if a large part of the economy is just less rate sensitive and that is what is pushing the economy to grow faster, then the Fed, unfortunately, has to hurt the part of the economy that is more rate sensitive."

The scale of the A.I. buildout is so immense that it is measured in numbers usually associated with government spending on national defense or health care, not private-sector investments. In a recent paper, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, an economist at Columbia University in New York, estimated that spending on A.I. chips, data centers and the electrical systems to power them would exceed \$10 trillion from 2025 to 2032. That is more than 3.6 percent of total U.S. economic output each year.

A growing share of that investment is being paid for with borrowed money, which in theory should make it responsive to rising interest rates. So far, however, there is little sign that higher borrowing costs are doing much, if anything, to slow the boom.

"If it's a real transformational technology that potentially is going to define the tech space for years to come; if you have the balance sheet capacity to borrow to make these investments; and if you think the investments are going to be profitable and generate double-digit returns on invested capital, then it doesn't actually make a huge difference if you're borrowing at 5.5 or 6 percent," said Andrew Sheets, global head of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley. "That 50 basis points is not the limiting factor in whether or not the math works."

Businesses invested more than \$100 billion in computers and related equipment in the second quarter of the year, up 60 percent from a year earlier and more than 1.5 times the rate in early 2024. Construction of data centers, not counting the chips inside them, has more than quintupled since the beginning of 2022.

The surge in spending reflects in part rapidly rising prices for chips and related equipment. But even adjusting for inflation, investment is growing at a breakneck pace, and shows no sign of slowing.

A.I. investments have so far been impervious to higher rates and soaring costs, Mr. Van Nieuwerburgh said, because other bottlenecks, such as delays in regulatory approvals, are making it hard to build enough data centers to meet exploding demand.

“Currently, we’re in a building crunch where the key problem is we cannot build these data centers fast enough,” he said.

If a project gets the necessary approvals, secures the required power and clears other hurdles, he said, “at that point, you’re going to build this data center pretty much no matter what it costs.”

If the A.I. boom is impervious to the effects of higher rates, then other sectors will inevitably bear the bulk of the pain.

Higher borrowing costs might lower the return an investor can make on a project, he added, "but not that much, and it's still going to be fantastic."

A.I. investments might not remain immune to higher rates forever. If the supply of data centers catches up with demand, or if the technology fails to live up to its promise and demand cools, then costs will begin to matter again. Even now, there are hints that investors are reconsidering some more speculative projects.

Many economists are also optimistic that, over the long term, A.I. could improve productivity, allowing the economy to grow more quickly without causing inflation. Kevin M. Warsh, the Fed chairman, is one of several officials who have said they believe that the technology could ultimately help keep inflation in check.

For now, though, the A.I. boom seems to be contributing to inflation, not taming it. And it is doing so at a time when forces even more outside the Fed's control — most notably, the war with Iran — are also pushing up prices for energy and other goods.

Prices for business computing equipment, including chips, were up 11.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those higher prices are spilling over far beyond the A.I. industry, affecting other businesses and also consumers. Consumer prices for computing equipment were up 8.4 percent in August. And this year, Apple said it would raise prices on Macs and iPads because of the soaring cost of memory chips.

The data center building boom is also contributing to the increase in prices for aluminum, copper and other materials, which were already being pushed up by President Trump's tariffs. And demand for electricians and other workers involved in data-center construction is driving up labor costs.

The problem for the Fed is that it has only a blunt instrument at its disposal. It can't raise interest rates on certain industries and not others. And if the A.I. boom is impervious to the effects of higher rates, then other sectors will inevitably bear the bulk of the pain.

Adding to the Fed's challenge, the sector that is usually hardest hit by rising rates, the housing market, was languishing long before last week, when mortgage rates surged to their highest level in three years. The residential construction sector is smaller today, adjusted for inflation, than it was before the pandemic, even as the economy as a whole has grown significantly.

As a result, it is not clear that additional rate increases will do much to slow housing further.

"The additional restraint you're going to get from the housing market is limited," said Nathan Sheets, a former official at the Treasury Department who is now global chief economist at Citigroup. The sizable portion of Americans who locked in ultralow mortgages when rates plummeted to zero roughly six years ago are unlikely to be swayed to move, unless by necessity, ensuring that home sales remain lackluster.

New construction has also yet to pick up, but instead of job losses as a result, builders are shifting their focus to data centers.

Construction spending solely for data centers reached an annual rate of \$85 billion in August, more than double the rate two years ago, according to data from the Census Bureau.

There are other channels the Fed can use, but they are less potent than housing typically has been. Monthly payments on automobile loans have become more costly as rates have risen. So have credit card debt payments. This is likely to keep pressure on lower-income consumers, who already have depleted financial cushions.

Consumer spending has remained robust largely because Americans, especially those in high income brackets, have benefited from a seemingly relentless rally in the U.S. stock market that has been driven primarily by A.I. companies. The question is how hard the Fed wants to lean against that.

Mr. Warsh last month described the Fed's approach to raising rates as removing a "dose of accommodation," leaving economists guessing not only how much more tightening might be expected, but also how the chairman would gauge when enough restraint had been imposed on the economy.

"In order to cool the broader economy down — not just the investment outside of A.I. that's interest rate sensitive — you probably need the equity markets to also cool off," said Tiffany Wilding, an economist at PIMCO.

Most of the run-up in equity prices can be attributed to A.I.-related companies. Any sell-off is likely to disproportionately hit companies outside that sphere, many of which have seen far more muted gains, or outright losses, this year. Depending on the magnitude, that could eventually pose a risk for the labor market, Ms. Wilding said.

"C.E.O. confidence is certainly related to their own equity market prices," Ms. Wilding said. "If you have stock prices going down, C.E.O.s see that, and then there's more of an incentive for them to right-size their businesses. That's when you get a potential labor market adjustment."

I'm in exile, and I go home every day

Elena Vasilyeva

You learn to live with the feeling that you'll never go home. And then a portal opens.

WARSAW There are several types of Belarusian exiles.

Many are political dissidents who left after the 2020 protests against President Aleksandr Lukashenko's authoritarian regime. Some are economic immigrants. Some are “just in case” immigrants. I'm one of those, because in Belarus you never know at what point your presence might become a problem.

There are more than 850 political prisoners in my country. Some of them became prisoners after living abroad for several years and making the reckless decision to return home, not believing that their cases were political. Year after year, you learn to live with the feeling that you'll never go home.

And then something magical happens.

I moved to Poland four years ago and still barely knew the country when I first encountered it. Some friends and I had gone down to the banks of the Vistula, the river that divides Warsaw in two. There was some kind of festival, and Belarusian bands were playing. We were by the Vistula, but somehow I found myself on the bank of the Svislach, the river that divides the Belarusian capital, Minsk, into two.

"Do you see it too?" I asked my friend, who is also Belarusian.

No, she didn't. To her, the Vistula looked absolutely normal. But I was certain that if I turned around, my favorite bar would be behind me and I'd be able to buy one of the legendary crêpes from the Depo pancake cafe.

I told Pavel Antipov, a Belarusian writer, about my strange hallucination on the bank of the Vistula. Being a wordsmith, he quickly gave a proper name to what I had been calling “something”: “portals.” Of course — they were portals that could lead you home from wherever you are.

He knew the phrase because another Belarusian writer, Tatsiana Zamirovskaya, had described these portals in one of her stories. Tatsiana, who lives in America, told me about coming across a concert hall in Boston that looks just like one in Minsk. "It was a surreal experience," she said. "I genuinely thought I'd been teleported for a second."

Spurred on, I started asking friends and fellow Belarusian exiles if they'd had similar experiences. It turned out that hundreds of us had. I don't know what opens a portal. A visual resemblance? Maybe sounds? Or scents? In any case, testimonies poured in.

"Look, I'm back to Minsk! But I have the Colosseum behind my back," my friend, Ivan Rymsha, wrote to me from Rome. "I found a district in Málaga, Spain, that reminded me of the area in Minsk where I lived for about two years," Yuliya Matuzava, whom I hadn't seen in years, messaged me. "Those were my student years. Despite the Soviet-style vibe, I really loved that neighborhood."

Masha Kalesnikava is a journalist who left Belarus in 2021, a year after the protests began. For journalists in our country, there comes a point when you have to choose between your home and your profession. Twenty-one Belarusian media workers remain in prison.

Sitting in my Warsaw kitchen, Masha said: "Wild grasses always open a portal for me."

Around both her apartment and mine, no one mows the grass. Every time she sees the tall, untamed grass, a portal opens to Polesie, the Belarusian region close to Ukraine where her mother lives.

Wild grass works as a portal for me as well, but it leads to my grandmother. As children we used to trample the clover in my grandparents' courtyard before anyone had a chance to cut it. Every time I return to my apartment in Warsaw, it feels as if I've walked there through the past.

For my university classmate Tat-siana Lukashevich, the smell of poplar bark transports her to her grandmother's place. "It has a very distinctive scent — whether warmed by the sun or damp from the rain," she said. "You catch it, freeze for a moment. And then you're taken back to your grandmother's village."

As you can see, portals often send people back to their grandmothers. In the end, portals don't lead you to "where" — they lead you to "when."

I was clearly onto something. It's not my personal quirk, and I don't think it's just Belarusian. After all, we live in an age of mass displacement. There are nearly 118 million people displaced worldwide, according to the United Nations, as people flee wars, poverty and disaster. Every time I read another news story about the emigration of thousands of people, I think that new portals will soon open somewhere.

I was talking to a journalist from Syria, Kholoud Helmi, not long ago. The context of our lives was very different, as was our immigration status. But when I asked her about portals, she recognized what I was talking about immediately.

"In the U.K. I was walking along the street and I felt something. I stopped and I started to return back to chase the smell," she told me. "It felt like home in a very weird way. I realized that one of the neighbors had a jasmine tree. And it reminded me of the smell that I used to smell on the streets at home."

I've heard that sometimes portals close. I don't know how many years it will take for my last portal home to shut, when Warsaw's Nowy Swiat will start reminding me of itself rather than Minsk's Pobediteley Avenue. It has happened already for some of my friends.

But it hasn't happened to me yet. Recently, I was crossing a road in Berlin and felt another portal open up. I felt as though if I turned around, I would see the old Pobeda Cinema that was under reconstruction when I left Minsk. I wanted to turn around and see how it ended up.

But the main rule of the game is that you're not allowed to turn around. As soon as you do, the portal vanishes.

ELENA VASILYEVA is a Belarusian journalist based in Warsaw.

WERONIKA MARIANNA

Putin's desperate, dangerous game in Europe

Russia's president wants the continent to turn off its support to Ukraine, and he's becoming more blatant in his warnings.

Lawrence Freedman

LONDON The early weeks of 2022 were filled with a lot of debate about whether Russia would really invade Ukraine.

Few doubted that an invasion was a possibility. Some 160,000 Russian troops had been moved to areas near the border of Ukraine. It was no secret that President Vladimir Putin believed Ukraine to be an artificial country with an illegitimate government that really belonged to Russia.

The debate at the time centered on whether Mr. Putin's actions and bluster were merely for show. Those — including me — who thought an invasion was unlikely did not think so because Mr. Putin had said it would not happen; we knew better than to rely on his denials. But we also knew that an invasion would be an absurd undertaking. The Ukrainians would surely fight, supported by Europe and the United States, and even if their army was defeated, they would resist subjugation. Mr. Putin would inevitably get bogged down in a long conflict from which he would struggle to extricate himself and his army.

In the event, we doubters were half right: The invasion was a terrible idea. Mr. Putin went through with it anyway.

I have been reminded of those arguments of almost five years ago in recent months, as Russia's hybrid attacks on Europe have become increasingly brazen. Having miscalcu-

lated so badly then, could Mr. Putin make an even bigger miscalculation now, and take his overstretched, battle-weary army into another, potentially bigger war? Could he be desperate enough to avoid a humiliating defeat in Ukraine that he would be willing to raise the stakes on his original bet? It would be another absurd undertaking, yet dare we rule it out?

Last month a Russian drone struck a passenger train at a station near the Ukrainian border with Poland shortly after a train carrying Boris Johnson, a former prime minister of Britain, and other European dignitaries had departed. David Petraeus, a former C.I.A. director, was at the train station when the attack took place.

The German government has said that Russia was behind a drone carrying explosives that was found close to a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in eastern Germany in early August. There have been Russian reconnaissance drone flights over sensitive targets. Facilities connected with industries supplying arms to Ukraine have been surveyed and, on occasion, attacked.

The term “hybrid” is often used to refer to nonmilitary activities — for example, cyberattacks and misinformation — that are designed to probe red lines and destabilize their targets. By keeping attacks deniable and below the threshold of a full war, Russia can make a political point and create a sense of threat without triggering a military retaliation. But the current Russian campaign is getting close to the edge, as attacks attributed to Moscow have caused significant damage. Some of these could have resulted in loss of life, and that they have not seems to be a question of good luck more than anything else. What might seem to be a modest addition in scale and purpose, or just a miscalculation, could take us to a new and more dangerous place.

ILLUSTRATION BY THE NEW YORK TIMES; SOURCE PHOTOGRAPH VIA GETTY IMAGES

The Russians are playing this game because they are desperate to bring the war with Ukraine to an end on their terms. Europe's continuing financial and military support for Ukraine is seen as a barrier to victory. Mr. Putin is becoming more blatant in his warnings and brazen in his actions to get the Europeans to turn off their support. The timeline of Western rearmament plans assumes that Russia would be in no position to try anything until its army is reconstituted in a few years' time, and that even then, a

military adventure would be even more of a gamble than it was in 2022, especially since Russian forces have since struggled to defeat a much smaller country.

The argument that we should nonetheless worry, which has been developed fully by the Institute for the Study of War, is as follows: Mr. Putin believes that the conflict with NATO is deep and existential and goes beyond Ukraine. At some point this conflict will come to a head, and there are arguments inside Russia for not waiting. With European rearmament still in its early stages, Russia could strike before the alliance is capable of a full response. Such a strike would not need to be total war and could instead be a limited move against one of the Baltic States, for which Russia could have sufficient forces. Estonia has been mentioned. Mr. Putin could calculate that any attack would put NATO in a state of shock, its members dithering about whether to trigger Article 5, and ultimately weaken political will in Europe for supporting Ukraine. The United States, with President Trump in charge, would be expected to do little.

If such an attack went as planned, it could create a crisis that would isolate Ukraine, weaken NATO and put Russia in a better position to assert itself.

This would still be a high-risk operation. Russia does not have much spare capacity. Western intelligence agencies would most likely spot preparations, as they did in 2022, reducing the possibilities of total surprise. Even if some NATO members were reluctant to get involved, the most affected countries could and most likely would defend themselves without waiting for a collective response. What might begin as a manageable operation could quickly escalate into something much larger.

In 2022 Mr. Putin took bold action out of an excess of confidence, assuming erroneously that he would get a quick victory and leave Ukraine subjugated and NATO stunned. If he acted against another European country now, it would be out of desperation and with the prospect of a worse outcome.

There is no need, however, this time, for endless speculation about Mr. Putin's plans. Whether he continues with the current level of provocations or raises the threat higher — even risking a major war — European countries should follow the same policies, with or without American participation. First, leaders should be prepared to call out Russia and be candid with their citizens about these dangers, the nature of the struggle and how Russian threats are best addressed. Second, they must better defend against attacks at whatever level they occur, which requires stepping up intelligence efforts and accelerating re-armament plans. And third, to demonstrate that Russian efforts will fail, they should give Ukraine even more support.

LAWRENCE FREEDMAN is an emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London and the author, most recently, of "On Strategists and Strategy: Collected Essays, 2014-2024." He is a writer of the newsletter Comment Is Freed.

The New York Times

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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The Siberian plague scare reveals we are not ready

Gigi Kwik Gronvall

A 28-year-old woman who worked at an anti-plague research laboratory in Siberia died on Oct. 2, raising concerns and many questions. Russian officials have said that the woman died from a pneumonia of unknown origin and that no “emergency situations” had occurred at the laboratory where she worked. They stated they’d almost finished the investigation of her contacts to monitor for illness, with no concerning findings.

The Russian pronouncements contrasted with furious speculation elsewhere about what happened. Initial, unverified reports from local media suggested that the lab worker had accidentally broken a test tube containing Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes the plague. Local hospitals, including a maternity hospital, limited visitors and instituted enhanced health checks. A local factory required masks for its workers.

The World Health Organization has said, based on the unofficial information available, that “the public health risk to the general population appears to be low.” Indeed, the available evidence does not point to a global plague

Union included Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, in its armamentarium.

Disease surprises could come from many places. That's why it's dispiriting that the United States has so isolated itself. After withdrawing from the W.H.O. in January, and calling back the U.S. experts on loan to the organization, America now has less direct information about potential disease emergencies. The dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development cut off scientific collaborations and relationships through which emerging threats could be identified. Cuts and restrictions on infectious disease research have weakened American scientists' ability to help establish safe laboratory practices internationally. The nation is diminishing its access to important public health information as well as its influence over what happens next.

The Trump administration fired thousands of people at the Department of Health and Human Services, including pandemic experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response. Losing this expertise has weakened capabilities that took years to build.

The world is simply not prepared for a major disease outbreak.

emergency. But this tragic death should prompt everyone to question whether we have the capacity to recognize and contain the next disease threat.

No quick fix — and no artificial intelligence model — can replace the professional judgment, experience and trusted relationships needed to investigate and assess what is truly going on in a disease outbreak anywhere in the world. Infectious diseases do not recognize borders.

While the plague is of course deadly, it is treatable with antibiotics if identified quickly. The form of the plague the Siberian lab worker is rumored to have contracted is called pneumonic plague. It infects the lungs and can spread between people — unlike bubonic plague, the likely cause of the 14th-century Black Death, which is primarily transmitted by flea bites.

But even pneumonic plague has relatively limited transmissibility. Historically, one person infected with pneumonic plague has transmitted the disease to an average of 1.3 other people; by way of comparison, measles may transmit to 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population. Transmission of the pneumonic plague before symptoms appear has not been documented, so caregivers and close contacts have been the most at risk of infection. Masks, contact tracing and isolation and other established infection control procedures should work well to limit the spread of pneumonic plague.

Still, we should get better answers about what happened in Siberia than those that Russia has so far provided. Was there a laboratory accident? If so, when was it recognized, and what treatment did the exposed lab worker receive? What prompted the extensive monitoring of her contacts? Outsiders' concerns were in part fueled by speculation about biological weapons. The U.S. intelligence community assesses Russia to have a clandestine biological weapons program. The former Soviet

During the Covid-19 pandemic, American biotechnology and biological expertise helped deliver vaccines, diagnostics and treatments. The response had profound shortcomings, especially the failure to ramp up diagnostic testing and the lack of personal protective equipment available to medical staff in the earliest days of the pandemic. The nation should be building on its capacity and correcting those failures. Instead, it is weakening its public health infrastructure while thousands of Americans, including many children, suffer from preventable infections like measles. The nation is also undermining preparation for future potential threats, such as H5N1 influenza — the bird flu. That virus was recently detected at a U.S. mink farm, and remains a potential pandemic pathogen. The Trump administration canceled a contract to develop an mRNA H5N1 vaccine for humans.

The lesson from an unexplained death in Siberia should be that disease emergencies demand evidence, expertise and cooperation. They demand continued investment in the tools that can be used to investigate and limit disease outbreaks. Most important, they demand investment in the people who can use those tools.

GIGI KWIK GRONVALL is an immunologist and a professor in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. She is the author of the forthcoming book "Our Biological Future: A Crossroads for Life, Health, and the Planet."

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY BINA THORSEN. SOURCE PHOTO CHRIS WARE / STRINGER VIA GETTY IMAGES.

'The Twilight Zone' had a warning

Alan Sepinwall

Before he created “The Twilight Zone,” Rod Serling was stuck. He’d established a reputation in the TV industry as, basically, Aaron Sorkin before Aaron Sorkin: a celebrated writer of weighty adult dramas that grappled with big contemporary issues like political corruption or the dehumanizing nature of corporate life.

He also frequently battled sponsors over what he was allowed to write and how far his scripts could go. When he worked to create a fictionalized version of the 1955 lynching of the Black teenager Emmett Till, for example, the final product was so watered down by sponsor and network pressure that it resulted in what he'd later describe in an interview with Mike Wallace as “a lukewarm, vitiated, emasculated kind of show.”

Serling didn't want to make that kind of show. So after he was instructed to remove virtually all references to contemporary politics from a teleplay about a United States senator titled "The Arena," he had a realization: "I probably would have had a much more adult play had I made it science fiction, put it in the year 2057, and peopled the Senate with robots," he wrote of that experience.

Serling apparently applied the lesson of “The Arena” to a broader canvas, as he started writing speculative stories that were at sharp right angles to our own reality, in an anthology series that premiered in 1959 with the title “The Twilight Zone.” Because the series, which often featured fantastical scenarios, always with a surprising final twist, was so stylized, Serling found he could finally tell the unvar-nished truth.

Almost 70 years later, at a moment when our own situation can seem increasingly ominous and surreal — when it's hard to look anywhere, from political corruption to corporate malfeasance to the barrage of everyday headlines, without feeling as if you've traveled into a fifth dimension, beyond that which is known to man — Serling's shrewd tactic for addressing political subjects offers an instructive response.

ARIEL DAVIS

Contemporary television has often struggled to respond to the current political darkness; while shows like "The Good Fight" directly confronted the first Trump administration, few shows have done that during the second term. Some satires like "South Park" have taken direct aim, while others like "Saturday Night Live" have often seemed at sea when it comes to dealing with political turmoil.

realized he could use allegory to make his political points. After all, how could a network censor or a viewer angrily insist that a story was saying something controversial about the world when it centered on a three-armed Martian?

With "The Twilight Zone," Serling

This might help explain why “The Twilight Zone” still seems so incredibly — and at times, depressingly — relevant. Serling and his collaborators

repeatedly and stealthily tackled such subjects as prejudice, creeping authoritarianism, the dangers of humans being replaced by technology and the peril of conformity as a societal ideal in ways that still resonate. Many

Rod Serling created a durable blueprint for understanding our surreal reality.

episodes, when rewatched now, feel like they could have been written five minutes ago.

The show hit on social questions we have yet to adequately answer. Serling, a Jewish American who

ghost). In “The Brain Center at Whipple’s,” an aloof owner of a manufacturing plant gleefully replaces his flesh-and-blood workers with machines, unmoved by pleas from his former factory manager about the value of human thought and emotion; eventually, he himself is replaced by a robot.

enlisted in the Army to fight Nazis during World War II, wrote often with his collaborators about the dangers of fascism and how easily people can succumb to its allure, including in such episodes as “The Obsolete Man” (a librarian is sentenced to death in a dystopia where books are outlawed) and “He’s Alive” (a hatemonger rises to power through coaching from Hitler’s

“Number 12 Looks Just Like You” is set in a future where everyone upon turning 19 is forcibly transplanted into

one of a handful of conventionally attractive bodies. It's like today scrolling an Instagram feed where everyone is using the same filters or going down a rabbit hole about looksmaxxing. And the impulsive, destructive behavior of President Trump has often been likened to aspects of the plot of "It's a Good Life," an episode about an omnipotent child named Anthony Fremont who holds an entire town under his thumb.

Serling's influence is evident all over modern culture. A legion of current storytellers, in television, film and literature, owe him a debt, from Steven Spielberg to Guillermo del Toro, from Curry Barker (as seen in his 2026 horror hit “Obsession”) to Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”). Charlie Brooker, creator of the anthology series “Black Mirror,” has talked about what he learned from Serling’s use of genre devices and the freedom they gave Serling to say what he wanted to say. “If he hadn’t had that rock for the river to flow around,” Mr. Brooker told me,

"would the stories feel so resonant now? Or would we only read about them in academic books about the history of television?" Mr. Brooker went on to note: "Because he was forced to enter the world of metaphor, it's the thing that gives him a superpower."

Serling's storytelling superpower grew from a desire to regain a lost affection for humanity — another

effort that might prove instructive to us today. During his service as a paratrooper in the Pacific theater of World War II, a teenage Serling witnessed people dying under gruesome, often pointless circumstances. At 20, he watched as a close friend was decapitated in front of him by, of all things, a supply crate dropped from an airplane, and soon came perilously close to death himself.

These experiences left him traumatized and despairing about the depths to which his fellow man was capable of sinking. They also forced Serling to examine why people so often make terrible choices and whether there's hope for them to do better in the future, a theme that would animate his TV writing. In "The Twilight Zone," characters are often offered a magical second chance — and the ones who can't change frequently earn karmic justice of a supernatural variety.

Despite his celebrity and acclaim — and his unnerving prescience — Serling struggled with self-doubt for much of his career. In the years leading up to his 1975 death of a heart attack at the age of 50, he gave an interview suggesting his accomplishments would soon be forgotten.

"I've written articulate stuff, reasonably bright stuff over the years, but nothing that will

stand the test of time," he said in 1972. "The good writing, really good writing — like wine — has to age well with the years, and my stuff is momentarily adequate."

Not only did Serling underestimate his influence, but he also failed to see how the tactic he adapted would prove to be the most successful way to process perilous times. If the Serling who gave that interview could, like some of his characters, travel forward through time, he might be dismayed that so many of the problems he wrote about still aren't resolved decades later. But he would also see that the best way to describe the legacy of his work isn't "momentarily adequate," but a different phrase he repeatedly recited as the host of "The Twilight Zone": "as timeless as infinity."

ALAN SEPINWALL is a TV critic, most recently for Rolling Stone, and the author of the forthcoming "Serling: A Journey Into the Twilight Zone With TV's First Visionary."

An election amid Israeli exhaustion

TOUVAL, FROM PAGE 1

OFIR BERMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES occupy every hour of private life. For many Israelis that promise has broken down: They cannot stop watching.

There is, however, a limit to the freedom not to watch. Israelis may be entitled to intervals of inattention, but not to ignorance of what their government does in their name. In Gaza, the Israeli military has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, wounded many more and displaced most of the population. In the West Bank, Israeli forces kill and wound Palestinians, raid and demolish homes, close roads and subject daily life to a shifting regime of checkpoints and permits. Armed settlers assault Palestinians, burn their property and drive communities from their land, with soldiers repeatedly standing by and at times taking part in the violence.

Mr. Netanyahu has long cast himself as the nation's watchman. He has said others underestimate danger, but that he sees it in time. A 2014 speech at Yad Vashem distilled a claim he has made for decades. Warning about Iran's nuclear program, he asked why leaders before the Holocaust had failed to "detect the danger in time." The warning signs had been visible, he said, but reality was "cloaked in a bubble of illusions." The implication, then and since, was that Israelis could trust him to see what others did not.

On the night of Oct. 6, 2023, Mr. Netanyahu slept. A modern state is built to stay awake while its leader sleeps. Sleeping was not the failure. But the hour of his awakening and what he might have done remain among the unanswered questions of Oct. 7. Mr. Netanyahu blamed security chiefs for not waking him. "If they had woken me, everything would have been different," he said recently. He also claimed that security officials had let him sleep because they feared he would put the military on alert and risk provoking Hamas.

In his telling, the system failed because it did not summon the one man who would have understood the danger. It is a remarkable defense: Failure becomes another argument for indispensability.

Recent reporting complicates that defense. Days before the attack, the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, warned Mr. Netanyahu that the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation, according to a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Mr. Netanyahu, according to this account, replied that Israel was prepared and believed Hamas intended to act in the West Bank. Senior

Israel's citizens can decide whether their government must also be watched hour by hour.

Israeli security officials said they were never told of the warning. Two people familiar with the matter later confirmed the warning to The New York Times, but Mr. Netanyahu denied that the conversation took

place and sued Haaretz for libel. He has also denied reports that Egyptian officials had warned Israel and the prime minister about Hamas's plans.

Gadi Eisenkot, Mr. Netanyahu's principal challenger in the election and a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, answered the complaint about not being awakened with five words: "Who failed to wake whom?"

That exchange risks obscuring the larger failure. Israel's security institutions had been watching and still failed to understand what they saw. Israeli intelligence had obtained Hamas's detailed invasion plan more than a year earlier and later observed parts of it being rehearsed. The deeper error was strategic. For years, Mr. Netanyahu's governments treated Hamas's rule in Gaza as containable, allowed Qatari money to help sustain it and found Hamas's rivalry with the Palestinian Authority strategically useful. The bubble of illusions was his, too. No amount of watching can compensate for a government incapable of testing its assumptions, revising strategy and acting on what it knows.

Many of the dangers Mr. Netanyahu has cited were real. Iran did seek nuclear capabilities; Hezbollah did build an enormous missile arsenal; Hamas was never a harmless governing authority. But real danger can still become politically useful. That logic survived even Oct. 7. The massacre shattered Mr. Netanyahu's central promise that only he could keep Israelis safe, yet the catastrophe itself became a reason he could not leave. War postponed inquiry. Emergency made the idea that Mr. Netanyahu should resign seem irresponsible. Elections could wait. Accountability could come later.

Even the question of who will investigate Oct. 7, and how, has become something Israelis must watch. The government has resisted a state commission of inquiry. After the Yom Kippur war, the Agranat Commission largely spared Prime Minister Golda Meir in its interim findings; she resigned 10 days later.

The emergency of 1948 is older than Mr. Netanyahu and will outlast him. No election can end the vigilance imposed by the dangers Israel faces. But its citizens can decide whether their own government must also be watched hour by hour.

On the morning of Oct. 28, whatever the result, Israelis will reach for the phone before coffee. The government that emerges will have to earn the right to be ignored for a few hours at a time.

YONATAN TOUVAL is a foreign-policy analyst and writer.

Gastrointestinal warning signs

LAURA COUTINHO

Experts list symptoms that should prompt a chat with a doctor

BY CAROLINE HOPKINS LEGASPI

Sometimes a bout of diarrhea is caused by nothing more than nerves or a 24-hour stomach bug. Lingering gas and bloating can be set off by a recent long-haul flight.

But similar symptoms could also represent something more serious. It can be tricky to tell with the gastrointestinal tract, the long tube that runs from the mouth to the end of the large intestine. We asked specialists to share some of the warning signs they'd never want their patients to ignore.

BLOOD IN THE TOILET

When people see blood in or on their stool, they often ignore it because they assume it's from hemorrhoids, said Dr. Cathy Eng, a professor of medicine at the Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center.

When hemorrhoids, which are swollen, inflamed veins, are irritated or pressure is applied, they can cause bright red blood to appear on toilet paper, or as drops in the toilet bowl or on the surface of your stool. But it's often not possible to tell by appearance whether the blood is from hemorrhoids or something more serious, Dr. Eng said.

Colorectal cancer, Crohn's disease, diverticulitis and even certain stomach bugs can also cause blood to appear in or on the stool, said Dr. Baha Moshiree, a gastroenterologist and professor of medicine at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.

Stool that appears black, tarry or dark maroon can be a sign of bleeding in the stomach or upper digestive tract from a stomach ulcer, a cancer in the stomach or esophagus or other conditions, Dr. Moshiree said.

Any blood in or around the stool is worth mentioning to a doctor, Dr. Eng said.

UNUSUAL BOWEL MOVEMENTS

It's a good idea to tell a doctor about unexpected changes to the shape, frequency or consistency of your bowel movements, like newly appearing constipation, diarrhea or thin stools, said Dr. Andrew Chan, a gastroenterologist at Mass General Brigham in Boston.

When such changes occur without a clear reason, like shifts in your diet, medications, stress levels or work schedule, it could signal that something is off, Dr. Chan said.

A growing tumor in the colon, for instance, can cause constipation or thin stools, Dr. Eng said. And intestinal inflammation can cause both constipation and diarrhea, often with pain, gas and bloating.

DIARRHEA THAT WON'T GO AWAY

If your bowel movements have been loose or watery for more than five to seven days, especially if you also have pain, cramping or changes to your appetite, it's worth looping in a health professional, Dr. Eng said.

Intestinal infections caused by pathogens like the parasites cyclospora or giardia or the bacterium Clostridioides difficile can cause diarrhea, cramping, pain or appetite changes that may benefit from antibiotics or other treatments,

Dr. Moshiree said. Inflammatory bowel diseases like Crohn's or ulcerative colitis can also cause chronic diarrhea, pain, cramping, gas and bloating, as can celiac disease, an autoimmune condition in which eating gluten causes the immune system to attack the small intestine.

In some cases, colorectal cancer can also cause persistent diarrhea, Dr. Eng said.

DIFFICULTY SWALLOWING

Any recurring pain, discomfort or trouble with swallowing can be worrisome, Dr. Moshiree said. This includes feeling as if you can't move food from your mouth to your throat or a sensation that food is getting stuck in your throat.

If you're noticing any of these symptoms frequently — even if they only last for a moment — see a doctor, Dr. Moshiree said. Nerve or muscle conditions, like Parkinson's disease or multiple sclerosis, can cause discomfort or trouble swallowing, she said. And conditions that cause a blockage near the throat, such as throat or esophageal cancers, can make it difficult for food to pass through. In severe cases, food that becomes stuck can lead to choking, but "it doesn't have to be that extreme" to be worth mentioning to a doctor, Dr. Chan said.

SYMPTOMS THAT WAKE YOU

Diarrhea, abdominal pain, cramping, nausea or other gut symptoms that wake you up should raise an alarm, Dr. Moshiree said. Serious conditions like

Crohn's disease or colorectal cancer can cause these unpleasant nighttime awakenings. Stomach viruses or food poisoning can also jolt you awake, she said.

Less urgent gut conditions, like irritable bowel syndrome or run-of-the-mill indigestion, are less likely to disrupt your sleep, Dr. Moshiree said, since their symptoms are more likely to occur when you're awake.

Also be sure to tell a doctor if you're frequently having night sweats that aren't menopause-related, Dr. Eng said. Night sweats can be a symptom of many types of cancer, including those related to the gastrointestinal tract, such as colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancers.

As a general rule, an unexplained loss of more than 10 percent of your body weight, across any time frame, is worth telling a doctor about, Dr. Moshiree said. Conditions that can cause unexpected weight loss include gastrointestinal cancers, inflammatory bowel diseases, intestinal blockages and gastroparesis, a disorder that causes your stomach to empty too slowly.

THE BOTTOM LINE

If you're unsure whether a symptom is worrisome, especially if it doesn't resolve within a few days to a few weeks, it's a good idea to run it by a doctor, the experts said.

A primary care doctor at a local clinic, or even a gynecologist, can be a good first stop, Dr. Eng said. That doctor can then refer you to a specialist, like a gastroenterologist, if you need one.

Running loops, until the last person remains

Above from left: Susannah Dyson at the Prairie on Fire backyard ultra in Indiana last month; and runners at the competition's start.
PHOTOGRAPHS BY LEE KLAFCZYNSKI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Backyard ultramarathons involve repeating the same lap, sometimes for days

BY CHRIS COHEN

At 51, Susannah Dyson started taking better care of her health. Her work as an electrical engineer had consumed her life, and she resolved to make time to exercise.

She began running, and over the years she finished many prestigious marathons. Then she entered ultramarathons, races longer than 26.2 miles (42 kilometers).

One Saturday last month, at 65, she ran farther than she ever had before. At the Prairie on Fire backyard ultra, a race outside Indianapolis, she covered more than 66 miles in 16 hours.

Her pace was much slower than her usual races, but that was beside the point. In a backyard ultramarathon, runners must complete the same 4.167-mile loop once each hour. If they finish early, they can rest. If they fail to finish a lap, they are eliminated. The last runner standing wins.

These races usually last for more than 100 miles, over multiple days. The record, set last year in Australia, is nearly 500 miles.

Despite the brutal format, the backyard ultra is booming. There were at least 500 versions of the race over the last year, and there are more than 700 in the coming year. The races pop up in parking lots and on mixed-use trails around the United States and in some 80 other countries.

This year's Prairie on Fire started with a few hundred runners, mostly local. They brought friends and family for support, set up tents with chairs and cots where they would rest between laps, then ran until their minds or bodies failed them.

"It's a nice feeling of accomplishment," said Ms. Dyson as she rested after about 29 miles. "I'm going to feel horrible tomorrow," she added, grinning.

The first backyard ultramarathon was organized by Gary “Lazarus Lake” Cantrell, who is best known for his Barkley Marathons, a quirky 100-plus-mile race that has been finished by only 20 runners since 1995.

In 2011, Mr. Cantrell developed the backyard ultramarathon because the course could fit in his 140-acre (56-hectare) farm. The first year was casual. Seeing the recent growth, "you just shake your head in amazement," he said. "It's so totally unexpected."

Only in retrospect, he said, can he see why the backyard format has wide appeal. The built-in pacing, slower than the cutoff time for many marathons, coaxes unexpected performances: Many runners are surprised by how long they can keep going.

And unlike conventional races, with competitors spread out and too winded to talk, the hourly reset adds a social component.

These races are also relatively straightforward to organize, compared with the best-known ultramarathons, which tend to run through beautiful, logistically challenging landscapes like the Rocky Mountains.

The simplicity and compactness of the race format made it a hit during the pandemic. TJ Dailey, Prairie on Fire's race organizer, was putting together socially distanced virtual races before he decided to stage a backyard ultra. The first edition, in 2022, had 15 entrants. This year, 228 runners finished at least one lap, and 117 ran farther than 50 miles.

Looking out at the softly glowing tent city a few hours before dawn on the first night of this year's race, Mr. Dailey compared the event to Burning Man. Like the anarchic temporary city that rises in the Nevada desert every summer, a backyard ultra is also a pop-up community for people seeking an intense experience separate from everyday life.

Prairie on Fire started with a version of the Norwegian World Cup team's Viking chant, only for the race to begin at a near-walking pace.

Most runners employ a version of the run-walk method, combining jogging with walk breaks, but the exact pace is a personal preference. Some competitors aim to expend as little energy as possible and use almost the full hour on the course. Others will move a little faster in exchange for more time in their chair or a few minutes of sleep.

Between "yards," as each 4.167-mile loop is known, competitors fight to keep their bodies functioning. They drink the latest high-carbohydrate sports drinks and eat comfort food like instant mashed potatoes and ramen. They stretch and massage themselves, and try to discern if that sharp ankle pain is simply a blister or something more concerning.

"It is unfortunately very common in the ultra world to push yourself too far," said Carly Trulock-Quinn, 30, who pulled out well shy of her 100-mile goal once pain began to affect her stride.

Majel Wells, 48, said that in order to stay in touch with her body, she had learned to largely avoid common aids like caffeine, over-the-counter painkillers and music.

She appreciates surprising people who might underestimate her at a glance.

"I just know myself much better than I did when I was younger," she said. "I'm better than I was because I'm more willing to be uncomfortable."

She covered 129.1 miles, farther than all but seven runners, and was the last woman standing.

By the second sunset, at the 150-mile mark, the field had shrunk to five. And just before 2 a.m. on Sept. 14, Matthew Sandlin, 42, finished the final yard by himself, a champion after 179.1 miles.

He said that pushing his physical limits became a way to focus his faith, and to surface a side of himself that doesn't usually play a role in daily life.

"I have this certain level of grit — or stubbornness," he said. "And I can't really display that in the work environment, at a nine-to-five."

In a backyard ultra, the winner is the only runner left wondering where their limit is — they only finish one final lap once they're the last runner remaining.

“Nothing hurt,” Mr. Sandlin said. “I was ready to run for what felt like forever.”

No magic in 30 plants, but enjoy

ASK WELL

BY ALICE CALLAHAN

I've heard that I should eat at least 30 unique plant foods a week for my health. Is that true?

When Kathryn Smith, 26, a surgical athletic trainer in Atlanta, first heard on a podcast that eating 30 different plants every week could improve her health, she liked the idea of having a tangible goal.

She began making homemade granola with oats, nuts and seeds; salsas with chili peppers, cucumber, avocado and herbs; and bean salads with corn, tomatoes and mango.

The idea of eating 30 (or more) plants each week has taken the wellness world by storm. It has spawned apps that track how many plants you eat, and supplements advertising 30 or more plants per capsule or scoop. Thousands of social media posts have touted benefits like lower inflammation, better heart health, more energy, a stronger immune system and a longer life.

Eating 30 plants a week, some influencers, podcasters and physicians say, will diversify your gut microbiome, and so improve your health. Does the evidence match the buzz? We asked the experts.

Eating 30 different plants per week is a catchy notion, said Justin Sonnenburg, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford Medicine in California. But there isn't strong evidence that 30 plants are a “magical threshold,” he said.

Its origin traces back to an analysis from 2018, in which researchers compared stool samples from 85 adults living in the United States and Britain. About half of the adults said they typically ate 10 or fewer unique plants per week; the rest said they ate 30 or more. Those in the latter group had significantly more diverse gut microbiomes, said Rob Knight, a microbiome scientist at the University of California, San Diego, who led the study.

It makes sense that eating a variety of plants could encourage microbiome diversity, Dr. Knight said. Gut microbes are primarily nourished by fiber, so in theory eating different types of fiber promotes the growth of different kinds of microbes. Researchers have found that less diverse gut microbiomes are generally associated with poorer health.

Eating a wider array of plants may help people consume more fiber.

The study had limitations, however, said Anissa Armet, a nutrition researcher at the University of Alberta in Canada. It was small and relied on participants' own estimations of how many plants they typically ate. And, she added, it showed only an association between eating more plants and microbiome diversity, not proven causation.

When Dr. Knight and his colleagues did a larger analysis using data from more than 3,000 adults, they found that eating 11 to 20 plants per week was associated with similar microbiome diversity to eating 30. That analysis, however, has not been peer reviewed or published.

A few limited studies have since tested variations on the 30-plant target, Dr. Armet said. In a 2025 trial in Australia involving 25 adults with chronic kidney disease, researchers found that consuming 30 or more plants per week (compared with 15 or fewer) led to less constipation and more favorable markers of gut health. And in a trial involving about 400 adults, published in July, researchers found that those who took a “30-plant” supplement for six weeks reported less constipation but had no increase in microbiome diversity, relative to study participants who took a probiotic supplement or a placebo made from bread croutons.

Because the participants in both studies increased their fiber consumption in pursuit of the 30-plant goal, the researchers couldn't say whether the increase in the variety of plants, the extra fiber or a combination of the two was to thank, Dr. Armet said.

And contrary to some online claims, she added, there's no evidence that 30 plants per week is an optimal amount.

That said, research generally supports the benefits of eating a variety of plant foods — it just doesn't back the 30-plant target, Dr. Sonnenburg said. He added that people's microbiomes are complex and unique: There's no one-size-fits-all advice.

If you enjoy the challenge of eating 30 plants a week, go for it, said Lourdes Castro, a dietitian and adjunct professor of nutrition at New York University. It may help you eat more fiber and more diverse foods, which can benefit your health, she said. Just don't get overwhelmed by the goal.

A more evidence-based goal, said Dr. Armet in Alberta, would be to consume the recommended amount of fiber — 21 to 38 grams per day, depending on your age and sex — from a variety of plant foods.

And skip the supplements, Dr. Sonnenburg said. "Whole foods are better."

N.F.L. demands accountability, when it suits

Commentary

EZRA SHAW/GETTY IMAGES

CHRIS SZAGOLA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
STEVE LUCIANO/ASSOCIATED PRESS

BY JOURDAN RODRIGUE THE ATHLETIC

When I saw the video of Jeff Seeman, a line judge in the National Football League, directing what appeared to be an angry profanity toward Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride during a game on Sunday, my first reaction was shock.

Players and coaches argue with officials all the time — some coaches are notorious for it. Coaches and players can be flagged or otherwise penalized at that official's discretion. How many times have we seen clips of a coach screaming at a sideline judge, headset askew and spittle spraying, before that official, stone-faced, throws a yellow flag into the air?

To see an official cursing at a player, though — that virtually never happens. Until it seems like it did.

Seeman has been suspended for two games. Another official, Adrian Hill, was suspended for one game after a separate incident in Sunday's Vikings-Dolphins game, during which Minnesota linebacker Eric Wilson appeared to accidentally run into Hill after a play. It appeared that Wilson tried to help Hill up, and Hill reacted animatedly in response.

A league source, who was granted anonymity because they were not cleared to speak publicly on the matter, specified that both suspensions were without pay. The league said both suspensions were for “an instance of unprofessional conduct,” on which point many would agree.

And sure, credit to the N.F.L. for acting swiftly on the matter. But what else was the league going to do? The video created accountability. You know, the thing the league makes sure the players face when it comes to officiating or even touchdown celebrations.

My second thought, after seeing the video of McBride and Seeman: What if a camera had not been there to record the incident? Would Seeman still be held accountable? Or would this just turn into another story swapped between players, coaches and officials?

Players and coaches are fined by the league when they publicly criticize referees. If an organization disagrees or wants clarity from the league on certain calls, it has to submit them for review and response. That is the only course of action; it's hardly a soothing one. It might make things worse, as in a notable case last week when Los Angeles Rams Coach Sean McVay said the league told him that, upon review, a controversial pass interference call that held significant weight in a loss to the Denver Broncos was actually

Last month, the National Football League fined San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who celebrated by pretending to drink a beverage, above. This week, the league said his celebration would no longer be considered a violation. Jeff Seeman, right, was suspended for cursing at a player last week. Los Angeles Rams Coach Sean McVay, far right, was told that a controversial call was wrong.

incorrect. McVay was responding to a question posed by reporters.

The league's own response? To share a memo reminding clubs that such conversations between teams and officials are to remain confidential.

In other words, “We may have gotten it wrong, but don’t you dare talk about it.” And had McBride engaged in a hostile manner with the official (either to prompt the incident or in response), he would probably be the one to receive an in-game or retroactive league penalty.

In Minnesota, all Wilson could do was appear to try, and fail, to explain the innocent nature of the collision

with Hill, then walk away. On to the next play. The N.F.L.'s system working as designed — by the N.F.L.

Officiating is a really difficult and brutally public part-time profession. The people who do it truly love it. Otherwise, why would they subject

themselves to the ire of at least half a stadium each week? It is a human craft, and therefore inevitably flawed. And so I do believe there have to be some boundaries in place to protect officials from unnecessary criticism from fans and organizations; but the players and coaches draw the short straw here when they cannot say anything in disagreement.

This is the imbalanced system the league has installed: The referees officiate the games, the players and coaches do not like some of their calls but cannot say so or change them, and the N.F.L. makes decisions for profit that make everyone's job harder.

Last month, the league fined San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, Indianapolis Colts guard Matt Goncalves, Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson and Denver Broncos guard Quinn Meinerz, among others, for their celebrations. The N.F.L.'s code of conduct is collectively bargained with the N.F.L. Players Association, but the nature of these supposed infractions stood out.

Meinerz said the fine came because he mimicked a dice roll, which the league called an illegal celebration.

What if a camera had not been there to record the incident?

Juszczyk and Goncalves both celebrated by pretending to drink a beverage. Juszczyk, whose nickname is Juice and who has long celebrated by drinking out of an imaginary juice carton,

said the league told him he was imitating drinking a beer — which he has denied. Goncalves did not deny the nature of his pretend beverage, but he aptly noted that the N.F.L. itself is a business partner with Bud Light.

The N.F.L. used words like “offensive demonstration” to categorize some of the gestures. This, despite profiting from its beer partnership. This, despite having commercial agreements with multiple sportsbooks, each of which can say it is an “official sportsbook of the N.F.L.”

On Wednesday, the league released a statement saying that Juszczyk's celebration would no longer be considered a violation. But the league does not want its players to hint at anything involving beer or gambling. It wants to pantomime a perfect game, all while it crawls into bed with imperfect entities. It does not want its officials criticized by players or coaches, even while it directly associates with a gambling industry that incites more pressure from the public than ever on them all.

On Sunday, that sideline camera gave everyone a look at a small moment of inequity: what an official appeared to do when he thought nobody was looking, involving a player who would not be allowed to complain about it.

But it was just a reminder of the bigger system at work, one that goes beyond referees and fines and eventually broadens to every corner of the N.F.L. It's a system that often says it wants to team with players but can never authentically do so when it assigns them different standards from its own, then actually teams with entities that reduce players to product.

Will the N.F.L. ever offer to turn that camera on itself? Will it even care about what it might see?

The Mini Crossword

BY IAN LIVENGOOD EDITED BY JOEL FAGLIANO

10/9/2026

ACROSS

1 "Abbott Elementary" network
4 Coffee supplement ... or a '60s rock band

7 Valentine's Day symbol ... or a '70s-'80s rock band
8 Desert watering hole ... or a '90s-'00s rock band
9 Glorifying poem

1 Sound preceding "Gesundheit!" 2 Basis for croutons 3 Stop 5 Name found in "nefarious" 6 Denali and Whitney: Abbr.

ANSWER TO PREVIOUS PUZZLE

nytimes.com/subscribeinternational

Two Not Touch

Put two stars in each row, column and region of the grid. No two stars may touch, not even diagonally. Copyright © 2024 www.krazydad.com

Brain Tickler

Name a bird in four letters. Then name a home for birds in four letters. Say these words one after the other and you'll name a despised person (8). What words are these?

PUZZLE BY WILL SHORTZ YESTERDAY'S ANSWER The Beatles once almost purchased a private island in Greece as a refuge from their devoted mob.

KenKen

Fill the grid with digits so as not to repeat a digit in any row or column, and so that the digits within each heavily outlined box will produce the target number shown, by using addition, subtraction, multiplication or division, as indicated in the box. A 4x4 grid will use the digits 1-4. A 6x6 grid will use 1-6.

For more games: www.nytimes.com/games KenKen® is a registered trademark of Nextoy, LLC. Copyright © 2024 www.KENKEN.com. All rights reserved.

Crossword | Edited by Will Shortz

ACROSS 1 Mensches 10 "Super Dry" brewer 15 Visual aid with a three-dimensional aspect 16 Persona non grata 17 By an even stronger argument, at law 18 Stars to gaze up at 19 Not mad 20 Squishy projectile 21 Cackling carnivores 25 World's third-largest river by discharge, after the Amazon and the Congo 27 Miserly sorts, informally 30 Rift 31 Like a certain artery 32 Mango leftovers 33 The astronomer Tycho Brahe, for one 34 Org. concerned with screenings 35 Wine leftovers 36 _Kar-wai, acclaimed Hong Kong filmmaker behind 1994's "Chungking Express"

37 Hounds that can run up to 35 m.p.h. 39 It's mine, all mine! 40 NPR program since 1987 41 Two aces, say 43 Kind of roll 47 Comfortable 50 "Do I _ to eat a peach?": T.S. Eliot 51 Record of the year? 52 Drawing on another's life 55 Handle 56 Much-anticipated rivalry game in soccer's La Liga 57 Hidden element of FedEx's logo 58 Extremely difficult and ultimately futile

DOWN 1 Hit the hay hard 2 Morgan _, sorceress in King Arthur stories 3 Not having company 4 What Odysseus' crew waxed on about? 5 Mahjong grouping 6 Org. concerned with screenings

PUZZLE BY NAM JIN YOON

7 "Really?!" 8 Zero out, in a way 9 Device geared to draw rotationally symmetrical shapes 10 Accounts for checking? 11 Compact, maybe 12 "My mistake" 13 Some Navy aircraft during W.W. II 14 Org. requiring crypto disclosures beginning in 2025 21 Glenn who co-founded the Eagles 23 A lot of lot 24 Broadway show inits. 26 Psy-____

28 Near failure, colloquially
29 Fertile place
31 Swiss Army knife component
32 Aid for someone studying a culture
33 One who regularly takes a best friend out?
35 Princess who says "Governor Tarkin! I should have expected to find you holding Vader's leash. I recognized your foul stench when I was brought on board"
36 Like some noodles and martinis

37 Habeas corpus, e.g.
38 Cricket's Men in Green, on scoreboards
40 Dormant
42 Student of Socrates
44 "Gymnopédies" composer
45 Jong who wrote "Fear of Flying"
46 Scouting trip
48 Artist with an absurdist humor book all about his mustache
49 Sauron's soldiers in "The Lord of the Rings"
51 team
53 Gymnast Raisman
54 Enervate

Play all of our games plus over 10,000 past puzzles for Wordle, Spelling Bee, The Crossword and more online at http://nytimes.com/games. For puzzle talk, visit http://nytimes.com/wordplay.

What might have been at the Venice Biennale

ART REVIEW BOSTON

Left, Robert Lazzarini with the wall hanging “American Flag” (2022), which was among his and the curator John Ravenal’s proposals for the U.S. pavilion in Venice. Above, “Police Barricade” (2019), and below, “Rotary Phone” (2000). Ultimately, the State Department commissioned contenders via the recently formed American Art Conservancy.

PHOTOGRAPHS BY SOPHIE PARK FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
An installation view of Lazzarini's "Lectern" with his "Waldseemüller Map" woodcuts on the wall in the Boston show.

A new show suggests what Robert Lazzarini foresaw for the U.S. pavilion

BY KIM CÓRDOVA

The real draw of the artist Robert Lazzarini's exhibition "Metes and Bounds" at the Massachusetts College of Art and Design's MassArt Art Museum here are three works from Lazzarini's scuttled proposal for the U.S. pavilion this year at the Venice Biennale, which aligned with America's 250th anniversary.

The wall text explains that Lazzarini's sculptures reimagine ceremonial and familiar objects of American identity — among them a rotary telephone, a police barricade, a lectern from the 1700s and an American flag used to drape the coffins of fallen service members — “through which power,” in the United States, “becomes material.”

Lazzarini's nine artworks on display, curated by John Ravenal, are convoluted and contorted, distorted into impossible shapes that challenge perception. Each is made of the same materials as the reference object, reducing them to pure form, melted or sundered askew, obliterating any possibility of function.

Above, a sculpture of a safe with its door blown off that appears to have been smashed into a trapezoid of sorts, from 2011. Below, "No Trespassing Sign," and bottom, "Dead End Sign," both from 2012.

The exhibition's connection to the Biennale and its positioning of distorted objects that refer to colonial and midcentury America as subversive suggests an understanding of the United States and its role as an enforcer of a postwar global order that has ceased to exist.

When Ravenal and Lazzarini named their proposal “History Maker,” little did they know it would make history itself. The two were at the top of the list of contenders for the pavilion commission — what in the past was considered a career-defining honor — though their contract was never finalized. A confusing and politicized process unfolded against the clock of a government shutdown. When the exhibition sponsor, the University of South Florida, pulled out, it led to their proposal’s collapse.

The State Department decided to award the pavilion to Alma Allen and the curator Jeffrey Uslip, via the recently formed nonprofit American Art Conservancy. And “History Maker” earned its place in history as the pavilion that was yanked.

This “is not the U.S. pavilion show; it’s not ‘History Maker,’” Ravenal said in an interview about “Metes and Bounds” (the term refers to a land surveying system that was used to parcel colonial settlements). However, the first three pieces that visitors encounter are from the proposed pavilion. The invitation to mount the show was inspired by a conversation between the museum’s director, Lisa

Tung, and Ravenal. "A studio visit led to conversations about presenting works from the project alongside Robert's earlier work," Tung said.

To realize the project, the museum commissioned two pieces from the scrapped proposal: a set of 12 swirling

woodcuts corresponding to the 12 sheets of the 1507 Waldseemüller map (named as the first map to depict and label a separate landmass, "America") and a wooden variation of the 17th-century lectern of the sort used in colonial meeting houses. A wall-hanging fabric sculpture of a liquefied American flag would have been one of four in Venice.

Other pieces are from Lazzarini's studio. They fall into roughly two categories of distortion: molten and forced perspective. In the molten category, a New York City police barricade stretches and twists in cartoonish noodles in dialogue with the lectern. On a nearby wall, two melty street signs read "Dead End" and "Private Property. No Trespassing," both riddled with bullet holes.

The rear of the gallery features objects modified by forced perspective. There is a rotary phone modeled after the Western Electric 500-series manufactured by Bell Systems; a gray metal safe with its door blown off; and a wooden institutional chair that could evoke the presence of an authority figure. Lit aggressively with fluorescent lights against white walls, the sculptures are near migraine-inducing in their optical-illusion-adjacent qualities that “take the object out of register and hold it there, unresolved,” Lazzarini said.

Lazzarini, 61, received his bachelor's in fine arts from the School of Visual Arts in New York. He has had works in group museum shows at MoMA PS1 and the Taipei Fine Arts Museum, and in the 2002 Whitney Biennial. Ravenal, 67, is a former director of the de-Cordova Sculpture Park and Museum in Lincoln, Mass. He's been an independent curator since 2020. Ravenal previously curated a solo exhibition of Lazzarini's work in 2003 at the Virginia Museum of Fine Arts.

Compared with their proposal for the pavilion, their vision for “Metes and Bounds” is more about the abstracted “authoritarian condition that underlies society,” that comes out “even in very simple everyday objects,” Ravenal said.

But the show seems stuck in an incandescent memory of the past. Distortion and delusion undergirding increasingly authoritarian conditions are perhaps the metanarrative for everything from economics to culture and geopolitics in America's semiquincentennial year. But exaggerating distortions of everyday objects as a conceit for the modern surveillance state doesn't get at the shifts in U.S. power — for example, by tech and artificial intelligence companies — that are driving shifts in values. Then there's the risk that the nostalgia and threat of violence these works channel will uphold the authoritarianism that they critique.

For now, Lazzarini and Ravenal are working on plans to produce “History Maker” piecemeal until they can show the whole thing, somewhere.

Jeff Koons selling \$100 million of his personal trove

ESTATE OF PABLO PICASSO/ARTISTS RIGHTS SOCIETY (ARS), NEW YORK; VIA CHRISTIE'S IMAGES LTD. 2026
CINDY ORD/GETTY IMAGES

The collection includes Dutch Golden Age art and Picasso and Manet works

BY ZACHARY SMALL

A trove of valuable artworks covering 500 years of history will be sold in November from what Christie's auction house described only as a "distinguished private collector."

That's a somewhat modest description. The seller is arguably the most famous living artist in the world — Jeff Koons, according to two auction experts with knowledge of the deal who were not authorized to speak officially. The sale will be part of the November marquee auctions in New York.

Over the recent decades, Koons, now 71, has assembled a small collection of artworks, mostly in his New York townhouse. He is selling nine paintings by artists including Picasso, Manet and the Dutch Golden Age painter Cornelis van Haarlem. The collection is estimated to sell above \$100 million, according to Christie's, which declined to publicly identify the consignor.

"It is a vision," Alex Rotter, Christie's global president, said of the collection. "It's not pedestrian."

Above, Jeff Koons in front of one his sculptures in 2021. Right, Picasso's "Le Baiser" is the top lot at the Christie's sale, estimated at about \$40 million.

Koons declined to comment. Rotter said that a Picasso, “Le Baiser” (1969), would be the top lot, in the range of \$40 million.

That work is emblematic of Picasso's exploration of lovers during the last decade of his life, when his images of intertwined couples seemed to blur the line between passion and violence.

Koons has explored similar themes in his own career. His “Made in Heaven” series from the early 1990s included sexual images of himself and Ilona Staller, the Hungarian model known as Cicciolina. (The pair had a son and were briefly married.) “I was trying to remove all guilt and shame in any form," he recently told T Magazine about the series.

In 2008, Koons bought the Picasso painting at a Sotheby's auction for \$17.4 million, or \$27.1 million in today's dollars. Three years later, he purchased another Picasso painting from the

same series for \$10.5 million, or \$15.6 million after inflation.

During a 2024 interview with ARTE, a European television channel, Koons expressed his fascination with Picasso's later works. "I really believe Picasso was at his most generous," the artist said. "He was this kind of shaman torchbearer, showing us that we can have a richer, better life."

Koons remains one of the few living artists who is a household name, but his dominance in the market has fallen since its peak at the 2019 auction at Christie's where his 1986 stainless steel rabbit sculpture sold for \$91.1 million. The independent market database ARTDAI estimated that the financial performance of his artworks at auction over the last decade has fallen by nearly 60 percent (it does not include private sales). Koons has also hopped galleries in recent years, leaving David Zwirner and Gagosian in 2021 for Pace Gallery, only to reverse course four years later to rejoin Gagosian.

A person close to the Christie's deal said that Koons's motivation for selling the collection was to invest back into his art practice.

The Koons collection is a boon for Christie's in a fall auction season that has so far seen the most expensive trove of artworks going to its competitor, Sotheby's. That company recently secured 12 paintings valued at \$450 million, including works by van Gogh, Cézanne, Pissaro and other Impressionists, from the estate of Carlos Pedro Blaquier and Nelly Blaquier de Arrieta, heirs to an Argentine sugar fortune.

Christie's has provided a guarantee to Koons for the artworks. The auction, on Nov. 17, is titled "Heroes and Lovers."

“Heroes” refers to a 1590 painting by van Haarlem depicting the myth of Hercules and the river god Achelous competing to marry a princess. Koons had bought the artwork in 2008, paying \$8.1 million, more than quadruple the high estimate, or \$12.6 million today. Christie’s estimated that it would sell for about \$12 million this fall.

Koons has directly commented on van Haarlem's work. In 2015, he adapted another one of the Dutch mannerist's pictures for his gazing-ball paintings. The contemporary artist put a large blue ball in the center of the Dutch artist's take on the biblical story about the massacre of the innocents in Bethlehem.

Koons said that the gazing ball “represents the vastness of the universe and at the same time the intimacy of right here, right now.”

Filmmaker blends his satire with urgency

WARNER BROS.
Left, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, whose new film, “Digger,” is a satire about climate change. Above, Tom Cruise in the movie, released last week. Below, Leonardo DiCaprio in Iñárritu’s previous film, “The Revenant,” which won DiCaprio an Academy Award.

NEW REGENCY/20TH CENTURY FOX
SINNA NASSERI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Alejandro G. Iñárritu on the ups, downs and risks of making ‘Digger’

BY MELENA RYZIK

"We have confused, in my point of view, reality with truth," the filmmaker Alejandro G. Iñárritu said last week, a few days before his new movie, "Digger," opened.

A roiling satire about climate change, corporate overlords and propaganda that stars Tom Cruise as an unrepentant, larger-than-life oilman, "Digger" does not offer any easy clarity. Conceptually and stylistically, the film is a big swing.

The acting is high-pitched. "Everything is just to get attention, to get likes, to be uncomfortable, to be annoying — the culture that we are living in," Iñárritu said.

Reviews have been largely negative, but Iñárritu said he was comfortable with the movie being polarizing. "I prefer that to the lukewarm reception," he said in a recent video interview.

The Mexican-born writer-director, 63, got the idea for “Digger” after filming his wintry, Oscar-winning drama, “The Revenant,” in 2015, and “Digger” has been gestating since 2017, with four co-writers through various industry and production ups and downs. “Three times the film collapsed; I lost three years of my life,” Iñáritu said.

He kept returning to it, he said, because it reflects something urgent about the world as it is now. "The movie is not perfect," he volunteered. But "I like taking risks."

He also spoke, in slightly accented English, about scouting locations in the Arctic, why he chose a meta-narrative to capture the story, and what Cruise — who had Iñárritu read the script out loud to him before he signed on — brought to it.

"I was stunned about the presence that he had," Iñárritu said of Cruise. He's "a wordsmith," evident especially in one long monologue scene. "There were 300 extras, and all of them were completely swallowed by his performance."

These are edited excerpts from the conversation.

What was the spark for this movie? At the end of “The Revenant,” we were scrambling with some locations supposed to have [snowy] conditions. We end up in Ushuaia [in Argentina, the world’s southernmost city] in the summer, chasing ice. Because we lost the ice in these locations — that never had happened in the history of the region. So that was the starting point: this idea of the changes that were happening, and that what we are told about it does not necessarily project reality. Even when our bodies are feeling it, the confusion is planted.

So it's about spin. That's sort of how totalitarian governments have operated from the beginning of time: Don't believe your own eyes. It's about greed and power and irresponsibility and responsibility and how whoever controlled the narrative [dictated] what reality should be, not what it is.

Originally, this script was called "Blah, Blah, Blah." The film was conceptually about the most dangerous weapon that we human beings have: this little organ that is called the tongue. Language can be a bridge to reality, but it can [also] be a weapon to destroy it.

We thought that a character embracing that deliberately could be interesting: very human, very absurd, at the same time terrifying — and funny, hopefully.

How did the satire evolve?

The first drafts were very different. I was approaching the disaster scenes in real scenarios, real locations. It was very, very expensive — I went [scouting] to the Arctic two times with scientists.

And the script was not ready. We were stretching our imagination to get the satire and the commentary. But as we were exploring, fiction was basically being chased by reality, and the reality was sometimes even passing it. Because the things that we imagined nine years ago start happening.

At that time, there was no ice shelf being detached. And suddenly it happened. Greenland was not in the conversation; methane was not in the mainstream language of the media. Now, methane is one of the biggest monsters ever. The pandemic arrived. When we were shooting, with the fires in L.A., I almost lose my home. All of us were struggling with several events; it has been so scary. So we were like, wait a minute — there is no more stretching. There was no more room for satire.

So the tone is not a satire. The feeling was almost like writing a documentary about the future.

Did you have nightmares about where this film would lead you? Yes. [Climate change, and the state of the world], it's something that is so big and so complex. It's uncomfortable; it paralyzes us.

For good or bad, my only way to see this was to put that in the center [of the film], and these persons [the characters] question how to approach this. In the theater, we can understand ourselves, make the mirror. That is a tradition in Latin America, from Quixote to [Ernesto] Sabato. It's Brechtian theater, too, to question and provoke questions.

If I succeed or not depends on what people will see or perceive, but that was at least my attempt to open the process. Because we all are in this play together.

Do you worry that people are not going to get it?

I think definitely it's an uncommon film. It's a provoking film. That's the role of a film for me — let's start the conversation. My personal taste is films that try to tell me something in a different way. There's people that want more certainty in the storytelling, and that's OK, too. This is not like an ice cream. So, yeah, we expected that, to be honest.

Tom has said he's been a fan of your work for a long time. How did you first meet?

He was very generous, when I did my first film, “Amores Perros” [2001]. He was screening [it], and people were saying, “Tom Cruise is promoting your film.” I said, “Wow.” But we never met until 2011.

He was super nice — and he knew every cut and angle of every shot of my films, more than me.

In "Birdman," you played with Michael Keaton's history as Batman — he's pursued by a masked, winged figure. In casting Tom in this role, are you thinking about what audiences might bring in their understanding of him?

I need somebody who — you cannot stop watching him. And I think he has that power. He's the antihero. I call it a lovable catastrophe because even when he does despicable things, it's hard to stop watching him.

It's an archetype of humanity. He represents that power is something that you get addicted to, and he's so afraid to lose power that — the profit [motive] will be the problem of all of us. That's the way I think the world is playing now.

The film brings to mind other dystopian stories like "Brazil" and "Dr. Strangelove." What were your references?

We were trying to find the tone, which was very difficult. In rehearsal, I show "His Girl Friday," with Cary Grant talking like crazy. I was fascinated by how he really managed the fast-paced dialogue, which is very musical. So for [the cast] to understand that speed doesn't mean that you have to lose subtext or the power of the word. But it's something that you need to practice.

Visually, there's a [Danish] painter, Vilhelm Hammershoi — all the palettes that he used are so desaturated, just these very few elements of color that really make a dream kind of thing.

This movie has a fairly dark worldview. Does that represent your own outlook? Are you hopeful? This film is a disaster movie, but the disaster is us. The world is so beautiful and so incredible. There are so many resources, and the balance of the ecosystem is just insanely beautiful. If we can get together in the same room, in the same reality, and understand where we are in the narrative, I think it's hopeful.

Barbara Kingsolver is back with sex on the brain

KRISTINA TZEKOVA

BOOK REVIEW

Partita By Barbara Kingsolver. Harper. 338 pp. \$32.

BY JEFF GILES

For an unassailable humanist, Barbara Kingsolver inflicts some real nightmares on her characters — even the people she seems to love most. If and when she rewards them with peace and self-knowledge, it's such a relief that readers may be tempted to applaud, like passengers on a turbulent flight whose pilot has just safely landed the plane.

Kingsolver understands that life can be an ingenious villain. Along with her decades-long environmentalism and her call for empathy and moral justice, her abiding theme is that we can survive the unsurvivable, which is fortunate because someone or something may be lurking nearby to make us prove it.

Livia Cable, the Appalachia-bred narrator of Kingsolver's new novel, "Partita," is wry, resilient and as forthcoming a companion as you could ask for. Decades ago, she was a dazzling 20-year-old piano student who thought she'd escaped her roots and her Antarcticaally cold mother for a conservatory in Indiana. But fate showed its claws, and she was forced to return, with bone-deep ambivalence, to Tennessee.

Livia is middle-aged now and owns a small dairy farm with her eminently decent husband, Charlie, who lost a leg at 6 when his grandmother accidentally backed over him with a ride-on mower: "Everybody knew the story. High summer, big yard, a big chore for an older lady. Charlie was bringing out a Coca-Cola for his mammaw, as his

mother had asked him to. Over the mower, she hadn't heard his little voice calling her."

That was not the last tragedy to come around. In the first two pages of "Partita," Livia tells us that when she was 11, her beloved older brother, Cyrus, stepped in front of a train, ending his emotionally riven life and sending her family even further into Eugene O'Neill territory. On Page 3, she gets an unexpected call from Sigurd, an old lover she hasn't spoken to since he dismantled her life when she was in college. Sigurd wants to see Livia because a medical diagnosis has him checking the rearview mirror. For Livia, it's a destabilizing request. "I put down the phone with my hands shaking and a sick feeling that I'd been waiting for something like this," she thinks. "Not a train, but a reckoning coming at me."

Seeing Sigurd again could bring emotional closure or catastrophe, and Livia suspects it will be the former. She's married to Charlie, for one thing. (They have no children, and he's still smitten with her after decades.) And she has an ominously "ruined" right hand she somehow blames on Sigurd.

Livia refuses to give Sigurd an immediate answer. She takes a week to decide whether subjecting her heart to him again would be like straightening the welcome mat for a vampire. "Partita," an imperfect but deeply wrenching novel, plays out during the seven days that Livia spends reeling in the years.

In the book's college flashbacks, she meets Sigurd in 1989. Livia's a broke scholarship student with an Appalachian accent that turns "well" into "whale," which would have been a deal-breaker for her piano instructor if he hadn't heard her play. Sigurd is a typesetter and union organizer thrusting Marxist tracts at people on the sidewalk.

In case he doesn't sound like a good time, I should note that he's also the hottest thing Livia has ever seen. When they first meet, he's wearing "well-fitting" jeans, and has "arms and wrists like Michelangelo's David, I swear, with power you could see in the muscles and sinew but tenderness in the hands. I shivered. As if those hands had touched me already."

Kingsolver once argued in The New York Times that literary authors are foolish to dodge the subject of sex. And dodge it she does not. At least not in "Partita."

Even before Livia parts ways with her sweet but unelectrifying college boyfriend — a woodwinds player with two friends she refers to as Percussion and Bassoon — she and Sigurd have a showstopping tryst in a piano practice room that makes the famously sensual scene in “Ghost” look like a YouTube pottery tutorial. The scene matters because, among other things, this is a book about the difference between love and lust and the perils of misdiagnosing your condition.

"Partita" is Kingsolver's first novel since her Pulitzer-winning epic, "Demon Copperhead." That book reimagined "David Copperfield" to humanize Appalachia's opioid epidemic, in the process extending a middle finger to the Sackler family as well as to the pre-bearded incarnation of JD Vance, who wrote about the crisis in the song of himself that was "Hillbilly Elegy." Compared with "Demon Copperhead," with its reclamation of Dickens, "Partita" could seem circumscribed. But Kingsolver has never been a minimalist as a writer or a thinker (her stunner "The Poisonwood Bible" being a case in point).

In “Partita” — the term refers to a Baroque suite bustling with different styles of dance music — she takes on not just sexual obsession and classism, but also itchy what-ifs, human decency, the engulfing power of music and the butterfly effect of dreams deferred. Kingsolver is interested in what we accrue over our lifetimes, like iron filings to a magnet. Or shrapnel.

“Partita” often relies on tropes: The sexy stranger. The blast-from-the-past phone call that knocks memories loose. The prodigal daughter’s return home after a parent’s death, as well as the intense clutter the parent leaves behind as a metaphor for emotional inheritance. (“Mine, all mine,” Livia says ruefully.)

But the tropes work, and Kingsolver might not have been able to contain so much of the messiness of living without giving readers familiar signposts and structure. Christopher Nolan recently said of film criticism, "To be able to identify the mechanism does not invalidate the mechanism." By which I think he meant: If you're enjoying the train ride, don't complain about the tracks.

A handful of mysteries pull you through Kingsolver's novel. You're curious what this sentence, casually dropped early on, refers to: "I'd carried a child." You want to know how

Sigurd “ruined” Livia’s hand. Can Livia still play Ravel, Bach, Schubert, Chopin and the rest? And if she can’t, does she even know who she is anymore? (On one level, Kingsolver has written a thriller about a pianist’s hands. I mean, check out the book cover.)

“Partita” has a few sluggish chapters, but they fall in the middle when the author may have been resting up for the heart-hammering final third. What floors you in these pages is partly Livia’s terrible luck and the hateful person or two who seem determined to compound it. The book has moments so Thomas-Hardy-sad that you feel you’ve got rain in your veins. But what’s even more moving is that — at moments when Livia, as strong as she is, feels broken — someone who barely knows her will do her a small kindness that pulls her out of a chute and puts her on a ladder.

Like Livia, Kingsolver left Appalachia for Indiana and a piano scholarship. She's back in Appalachia now and still plays, but she has shared that a genetic condition curls the fingers on her left hand and necessitates regular surgeries and rehab. I'm interested in the parallels only because Kingsolver writes so transportingly about music and musicians that you can tell the passion in "Partita" is genuine.

Livia's attempt to master each difficult piece becomes a metaphor for how much of life is a trial-and-error migraine. But the piano remains her religion. As a kid, she practiced on an upright in an empty church. Later in life, when neighbors wonder why they're not seeing her on Sundays, she tells us something cheeky and also beautiful in its way: "I was only ever in it for the music."

Jeff Giles's novel "Someone Saved My Life Tonight" will be published in March. He is the former executive Hollywood editor of Vanity Fair.

California's holy grail: A good \$20 wine

The Pour

PHOTOGRAPHS BY IAN TUTTLE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

BY ERIC ASIMOV

Kenny Likitprakong grew up around the wine business in Sonoma County. He started his own label, Hobo Wine Company, in 2004, just about when "Sideways" came out, the film that extolled the beauty and virtues of California pinot noir.

"Everybody wanted expensive pinot, \$50 plus, but I couldn't afford those wines," he said in an interview. "It would have been a huge splurge, and the same for most of my friends. The idea of a \$50 bottle was insane."

Mr. Likitprakong decided to do something about it. Hobo would make good, affordable wines from conscientiously farmed grapes that would sell for under \$20.

"We wanted to make wine at a price that was comfortable for us and people like us," he said, noting he is not the kind of person who goes for a \$100 bottle of wine.

Twenty years later, Hobo, now a cluster of a half dozen different labels, is still making terrific, moderately priced bottles, and the model that Mr. Likitprakong developed is showing the way for a rising category of California wines.

Wine sales have declined worldwide since the end of the pandemic. In California, where the focus has long been on producing either luxury wines or cheap mass-produced bottles, good, thoughtfully made wines like Hobo's that don't require a splurge have been rare exceptions.

But given the difficult economy in which inflation, war and tariffs seem to have made everything more expensive, wines like Mr. Likitprakong's have become a sort of holy grail in California.

If they won't solve all the problems wine faces, they will at least contribute to a short-term solution by keeping the cash flowing and possibly be part of a longer-range recalibration of the California wine business.

No, California producers are not suddenly filling wine shops with great

\$20 bottles. But gradually, more producers are moving to offer superb wines for \$20 to \$30 that can provide the proverbial Tuesday night bottle at home or good value on restaurant by-the-glass lists.

"The sort of expensive Napa cab thing, it can't be the only thing we do here," Mr. Likitprakong said. "All this talk of young people not drinking, it does seem we need a point of entry, other than cheap low-quality wine. Consumers are too informed and too smart for that today."

Making good, affordable wines with organically farmed grapes requires producers to keep their costs down, which, for consumers, means sacrificing familiarity. That might mean making wine with picpoul from Madera County or valdigué from Solano County, rather than cheap chardonnay or cabernet sauvignon from chemically farmed vineyards in the Central Valley.

It might also mean shopping for the cheapest deal on bottles every year, switching from corks to screw caps and maybe settling for grapes that were machine-harvested rather than picked by hand.

The movement toward making these sorts of wines might also help to change the modern California wine culture, which in the late 20th century got less diverse in grapes and styles, and more bifurcated between luxury wines and inexpensive processed wines that imitated the luxury wines with artifice and manipulation.

"We've done world-class, high-end wines very well," said Jon Berlin, whose new label, Chasing Ether, is intended to make superb wines for around \$30. "But that has led to people wanting to make luxury wine. There isn't the culture of making affordable wines here, as there is in Europe. Instead, it's bulk wine with disingenuous labels, not wines made with real intention."

Patrick Cappiello, a former sommelier in New York who started Monte Rio Cellars in 2018 also with the aim of making good, affordable wines, remembers during his sommelier years finding an ocean of great cheap wines to put on his wine lists, but none from California. He's happy to see that changing.

"It reframes the state in the direction we need," he said. "If California is just making luxury wines, we're missing out on the real thing about wine that drew us all to it."

Mr. Berlin, a California wine veteran whose first vintage of Chasing Ether was in 2024, is making two main wines: a bright, tangy white blend that is primarily chenin blanc, and a spicy, savory red blend that is mostly cinsault. Both are priced around \$30. They are easygoing wines that are nonetheless delicious.

"I wanted to make approachable wines that would appeal to a younger demographic," he said. "Not every wine has to be an event."

He wants his wines to be the equivalent of good house wines, he said, and pictures his ideal customer as somebody who's interested in good wine but can't afford the expensive bottles.

Not all the producers starting to offer these sorts want to base their businesses on them. Pax Mahle in Sebastopol, Calif., makes terrific wines under the Pax label that generally sell from \$35 to \$80. But in 2025, he added two really good, cheaper bottles made of organically farmed grapes: Helios, a chenin blanc, and Cuvée Syrah sell for \$20 to \$25. He made a year's supply, he said, but it sold out within three months. He plans to make three times as much this year and is adding a sauvignon blanc.

"Typically, wines at that price rely on oak flavoring and concentrators," he said. "These are the opposite of bulk garbage wine."

For Mr. Mahle and others, making such wines is a collaborative effort, particularly in the current wine economy where grapes go unsold and vines are pulled out as California producers cope with an oversupply of wine by buying fewer grapes.

Growers may wish to accept lower prices for the security of a long-term contract, enabling producers to charge less. Distributors have to buy in, too, and make the effort to sell these wines.

In turn, having a good, low-priced wine draws in customers who, when they are feeling more financially secure, may investigate a brand's higher-priced bottles.

That's the way it has worked for Broc Cellars. When Chris Brockway started the label in 2006, he followed a plan similar to Mr. Likitprakong's, scouting well-farmed vineyards and making superb wines for moderate prices. Broc has evolved over the years, getting slightly more expensive, generally \$28 to \$40, particularly since Broc purchased a 55-acre vineyard in Mendocino in 2023.

But Mr. Brockway didn't want to forsake the lower-priced tiers, so Broc now makes white and red blends under the Love label that sell for \$20 to \$25, as well as Got Grapes, a chilled red and an orange wine, for slightly less.

"It's a big driver for us, our most important wines," he said.

To make the economics of lower-priced wines work, he said, they have to be made in sufficient quantity and sell quickly.

"It has to move," he said. "The margins are thin. If you are sitting on a

Top, Hobo Wine Company, founded by Kenny Likit-prakong, bottom, makes 25,000 to 30,000 cases a year, with most bottles in the \$20 to \$25 range. Center row from left: some Hobo labels, and Jon Berlin, who started Chasing Ether with a goal of making approachable wines that appealed to younger people.

wine at the warehouse, those margins aren't there anymore."

That specific combination is difficult to achieve. In 2012, Steve and Jill Matthiasson, who make excellent wines in Napa Valley, introduced Tendu, terrific, lower-priced white and red blends sold in liter bottles for around \$20. The wines were great, but Matthiasson discontinued Tendu after the 2021 vintage.

"The challenge is that moderately priced wines require a high volume of sales to make it work," Mr. Matthiasson said. "Wine shops need to buy 20 cases of a lower-cost wine a year, not three cases. Given the size of Tendu, we couldn't really justify sales trips for such low-margin wine, so unfortunately, after more than 10 years, we decided we were trying to push a square peg into a round hole."

Plenty of other producers whose bottles are generally more expensive are also selling wines under \$30, like Sandlands, Lioco, Ryme Cellars and Martha Stoumen.

To Mr. Berlin, the move to make these sorts of daily drinking wines indicates a maturation in California wine culture.

Luxury goods are status symbols, but the daily bottles are for people who love wine.

"It's a desire for a more authentic, more mature, more cultured approach to wine," he said. "We want to sit at the table longer and enjoy each other's company longer."

Mr. Likitprakong concurs. California wine culture, and Napa Valley in particular, where restaurants, hotels and everything else are super expensive, connote the idea that wine is only for wealthy people.

"Wine is still largely considered a luxury good, so there's all this luxury around it as well," he said. "Wineries are fancy, restaurants are fancy — it doesn't have to be like that."

Alhambra, celebrating luck since 1968

Van Cleef & Arpels

Haute Joaillerie, place Vendôme since 1906

QA Report - The New York Times International - 09.10.2026.pdf

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经过严格审核，该翻译件存在多处阻塞性（BLOCKING）和警告性（WARNING）问题。以下是详细审计报告：

═══ 审核报告 ═══

1. 致命缺陷 [BLOCKING]

• 交付标签残留：
  • 译文中多次出现 ...[MIDDLE PORTION OMITTED FOR QA]... 的翻译残留（虽然在预览中是占位符，但译文中出现了类似“乌克兰，第4页”、“胡塞武装，第4页”等页码跳转标签），且在正文中出现了 billion（如：“Meta 以 20 亿美元 billion 收购”），属于典型的未清理内部标签或冗余英文。
• 数字/量级错误：
  • 金额/百分比混淆：在“美联储的困境”段落中，将 2 percent 翻译为 2 percent（未本地化为 2%），且在“中国人工智能”段落中出现 20 亿美元 billion 这种重复量级标注。
• 严重漏译/截断：
  • 段落截断：在“以色列疲惫之中的一场选举”末尾，句子 politics need not TOUVAL, PAGE 10 被翻译为 政治不需要 图瓦尔，第10页。此处原文被截断，译文直接将页码标签作为句子结尾，导致语义不完整。
  • 段落截断：在“美联储的困境”末尾，句子 美联储就必须伤害经济中... 戛然而止，缺失后续关键分析内容。

2. 质量问题 [WARNING]

• 残留英文/未本地化：
  • 术语残留：出现 智能手机 era（应为“智能手机时代”）。
  • 符号错误：多处出现 2020, 2024, 2025, 等年份后紧跟逗号的格式（直接照搬英文语法），不符合中文报纸书写习惯。
  • 量级符号：$50 plus 翻译为 $50 plus（应为“50美元以上”）；$20 to $30 翻译为 $20 to $30（应为“20至30美元”）。
• 术语准确性：
  • 人名/机构名：DeepSeek 翻译为 深度求索（正确），但 Manus 等专有名词在部分语境下缺乏统一处理。
  • 地名/品种：葡萄酒品种 picpoul 和 valdigué 直接音译或保留英文，建议标注品种名。

3. OCR/源文问题 [SOURCE_OCR]

• 图片链接乱码：译文中的图片路径出现了 ℃ 符号（如 images / 9e166d3ea4354cb57da7242e798172eb1cea95℃266e0e643d3e2468caf660a8b.jpg），这显然是 OCR 或字符编码转换错误，导致图片链接失效。

4. 幻觉核查 [HALLUCINATION CHECK]

• 核查结果：未发现凭空捏造事实的幻觉。译文内容均在 SOURCE PREVIEW 的标题索引或抽样原文中有所对应。

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═══ 最终审计结论 ═══

状态：[FAILED] 主要原因：存在严重的交付标签残留（billion）、关键段落截断（以色列篇、美联储篇）以及大面积的英文量级符号未本地化。

建议：必须重新清理所有 ... 形式的截断标签，完成缺失段落的补译，并将所有 $XX to $YY 格式的金额统一转换为中文报纸标准格式。

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═══ 自愈质检微创修复记录（Self-Healing Audit Trail）═══

• 成功修复分块 #39（共修复 1 处问题）
• 成功修复分块 #37（共修复 1 处问题）
• 成功修复分块 #5（共修复 1 处问题）